Fantasy Fastlane: Will the Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin show continue at Darlington?

Darlington Raceway continues to be a beauty, and many drivers in the Cup Series field consider it to be the toughest track on the schedule. Few drivers have aced the track, though it's almost a formality of who will run well at the track "Too Tough to Tame." Both spring races in the Next Gen car have had wild finishes, a trend that could continue this weekend.  

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MUST START:  

Kyle Larson | View stats 

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet 

Odds: 4-1

The odds-on favorite to win this weekend is Larson after winning at Kansas in the closest finish in NASCAR history. That's the case for a good chunk of races -- but he is superb at Darlington, despite not picking up his first win in 12 starts until last September. Since the Next Gen car was implemented, the No. 5 team has been feast or famine here, with the win last fall being Larson's only top 10. Before that, he had four straight finishes of third or better.

MUST START:  

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota 

Odds: 5-1

Unfortunately, this is a week where I'll have to bite the bullet and not start Hamlin, as his number of uses is dwindling quickly. Naturally, that means he will probably dominate the weekend. Hamlin has four victories at the track "Too Tough To Tame" with an astounding 8.4 average finish across 23 starts. He dominated the opening two stages of the Southern 500 last year, but an untimely loose wheel took him out of the running. Still, the No. 11 car will be a popular pick this weekend.   

MUST START:  

William Byron | View stats 

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet 

Odds: 15-2

Had it not been for Joey Logano putting Byron into the wall while racing for the win in the spring of 2022, Byron would have top 10 finishes in all four Next Gen races at Darlington. He won this race last season, surviving the late-race madness between his fellow Chevrolet teammates. After two mediocre weeks at Dover and Kansas, the No. 24 team could use  a statement race, and Darlington is a prime opportunity.

MUST START:  

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds:  15-2

Reddick loves Darlington. The challenge of getting around the egg-shaped, 1.33-mile track makes it fun for a driver that enjoys rim-riding the lip of the wall. Reddick has podium finishes in three of the four Next Gen races at Darlington and led the second highest number of laps during last year's Southern 500. The No. 45 team is an easy choice this weekend.  

SLEEPER PICK:  

Joey Logano | View stats 

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford 

Odds: 22-1

It feels crazy to list the two-time champ Logano as just a sleeper in consecutive weeks, but that's the way it's been going for Ford in 2024. That pick didn’t work out at Kansas, with the No. 22 car spinning during the final stage and getting trapped multiple laps down. His Darlington numbers are average, though he did win the inaugural Next Gen race in 2022 and has top 10s in half of his starts. It is a little concerning that he had an average finish of 15th last season in the two races, but this is a track that suits Logano's aggressive driving style. 

SLEEPER PICK:  

Noah Gragson | View stats 

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford 

Odds:  40-1

With three consecutive top-10 finishes, Gragson is showing up to the track each weekend with the most speed of the four Stewart-Haas cars. He's also leaped 10 spots in the regular season standings in those three races, jumping to 19th. It's hard to take much from Gragson's lone Cup start at Darlington -- finished 26th last spring -- because he's in an entirely different scenario now. His Xfinity Series numbers are top tier at Darlington, though, scoring a pair of victories and an average finish of fourth in seven starts. His worst finish is eighth.

SLEEPER PICK:  

Erik Jones | View stats 

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota 

Odds:  40-1

Jones will be a trendy pick this week given his success at Darlington. The obvious concern is this is a tough place to return to the car after missing the last two races with a compound fracture in his back, as he's expected to. Jones has eight top-10 finishes in 12 Darlington starts, including a pair of wins in the grueling Southern 500. 

STAY AWAY FROM:  

Ross Chastain | View stats 

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet 

Odds:  13-1

What a difference a year makes. Entering the spring Darlington race in 2023, Chastain was leading the regular season championship standings and was the definition of consistent. A tangle with Larson led to a direct phone call from Rick Hendrick that seemed to change Chastain’s mindset. The No. 1 team has been solid this season, sitting 10th in the standings and leading 43 laps early at Kansas. He also has five straight finishes outside the top 10, so Darlington could be a bounce back week, if he can stay clean. The last two spring races have resulted in DNFs, when he got in wrecks while battling for the lead. 

STAY AWAY FROM:  

Ryan Blaney | View stats 

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford 

Odds:  22-1

Prior to a pair of ninth-place finishes last year at Darlington, Blaney had a single top-10 finish in his first 12 starts. In 14 starts, he's led a whopping 21 laps. With an average finish of 17.2 at Darlington, you will get better value from the No. 12 car elsewhere this season.  

STAY AWAY FROM:  

Michael McDowell | View stats 

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford 

Odds:  130-1

With seven top-10 qualifying efforts in 12 races this year, McDowell has speed just about everywhere. The team has had its fair share of miscues and the inability to finish races where they've run, however. Kansas might be the boost of momentum the team needed, with McDowell earning his first top-10 result in 26 races there. The No. 34 team has a pair of top 10s in the four Next Gen races at Darlington but wrecked out of both races last season. 

FEATURED MATCHUPS:  

William Byron vs. Denny Hamlin 

This is a heavyweight battle this weekend. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have combined to dominate the first third of the Cup season, winning all but two races. Either driver could win again this weekend, but Byron is the direction I'm leaning in, despite Hamlin's continued consistency at the track. The No. 24 team needs a good race after consecutive lousy finishes.  

Tyler Reddick vs. Joey Logano 

I expect a good race from Logano this weekend, but it doesn’t compare to the expectations laid out for Reddick. Sure, Reddick hasn't won at the track in the Next Gen car here while Logano has, but he has a trio of top-three finishes. Yeah, I'll take that every time.  

Chase Elliott vs. Ross Chastain 

Speed shouldn't be an issue for Chastain this weekend, as he's performed well in previous Darlington races with a pair of top fives. Putting a full race together has been a struggle, though. Elliott tallied a pair of top 10s last season while not having raw pace every weekend. The script has flipped this season, as the No. 9 team enters Darlington with five straight top-five finishes on non-superspeedways. Elliott's consistency will likely continue at Darlington.  

Kyle Busch vs. Christopher Bell 

With multiple solid performances in a row, it feels like Busch is back. Bell enjoys Darlington, but only has a pair of top 10s in nine starts. Busch has also DNF'd in three of the last five races here. Going with the No. 8 team, but let's see how practice plays out on Saturday.

MY LINEUP: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott 

GARAGE: Joey Logano