Fantasy Fastlane: Playing for points or the win at Sonoma?

Another wild card winner, Austin Cindric, prevailed last weekend at World Wide Technology Raceway, putting the regular season standings into a blender. The elimination line is becoming increasingly tight, with multiple Cup Series champions currently on the outside looking in. Sonoma, the second road course race of the season, provides another opportunity for madness, particularly with the return of stage breaks at road courses and the fact that it’s a repaved track. It’s a good bet that teams with recent success on road courses will pay off this weekend.

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MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Truex’s dominance at Sonoma returned in 2023, leading just shy of half the race. Dating back to 2018, he’s won three of the five races contested at the 1.99-mile course, cruising to victory in each of the three triumphs. The No. 19 team is coming off an uncharacteristic 34th-place finish at Gateway and needs points in its quest for the regular season title. It’s entirely possible, however, that James Small’s strategy is set up to win the race and they bail completely on scoring stage points. It’s still worth having one of Sonoma’s greats in your lineup. 

MUST START: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Though Buescher has yet to win on a road course, few drivers have been better at them in the Next Gen car. His first breakout run on road courses came at Sonoma in 2022, finishing runner-up to Daniel Suarez. He is the only driver to have top fives in both Sonoma races in the Next Gen car and has a worst finish of 11th across the last 12 road course races. He leads Cup drivers with 11 top-10 finishes on road courses in the Next Gen era. 

MUST START: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Seeing McDowell’s blistering track record at Gateway last weekend, it’s clear he’s not a lame duck at Front Row. Sure, he’s departing the team at season’s end, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he delivered the team another victory on a road course, like he did last year at Indianapolis. In two tries in the Next Gen at Sonoma, he’s been among the league leaders, posting an average finish of fifth. He sits 24th in the championship standings, 113 points below the elimination line, and it’s clear that the No. 34 team’s intention will be set on winning this weekend. 

MUST START: 

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-1

Whenever Allmendinger lines up for a road course, he needs to be considered for your fantasy lineup. He is among the best road racers to ever strap into a Cup car, scoring three victories with teams that aren’t considered among the Goliaths of NASCAR. Just last year in the playoffs at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, Allmendinger was celebrating in Victory Lane. Kaulig will live up to its moniker of “trophy hunting” this weekend, as that’s the only reason why Allmendinger is in the car.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Should Cindric really be considered a sleeper? He just won at Gateway and punched his ticket to the postseason. He is also an elite road course racer, despite not having a win to show for it at the Cup level quite yet. Team Penske’s road course program was off in 2023, but Cindric still managed a pair of top 10s. He finished fifth at Sonoma during his rookie campaign. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

One wreck at Gateway, plus an unexpected Cindric victory, dropped Busch from inside the playoffs to 19th on the grid, 20 points below the elimination line. The No. 8 team needs points, yet Busch wants to keep his consecutive-year winning streak intact, currently sitting at 19 straight. Busch placed second at Sonoma last season and is a two-time winner at the road course. Dating back to his most recent triumph in 2015, Busch has six top-five finishes over the last eight Sonoma starts. That could be considered starter-worthy. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 45-1

Scoring just one victory on a road course (Watkins Glen in 2015), Logano is an underappreciated road course competitor. Granted, his numbers are all over the board, but throughout the 2023 season, he earned four top-10 finishes across the six road course events. The No. 22 team tends to go after stage points, which will most definitely be the case this weekend, sitting 14 points outside the playoff bubble. That may hurt his overall finish but could also play out with guaranteed points in the stages. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

With five straight top-five finishes for the first time since early into the 2021 season, the No. 11 team has finally found consistency in 2024 after beginning the year as feast or famine. Hamlin has figured out how to be fast on road courses for a single lap in the Next Gen car – he won three poles on road courses in 2023, including Sonoma – but has struggled to put finishes together. His runner-up finish at Watkins Glen last year is his only top 10 on a road course since 2021.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 200-1

Wallace has improved tremendously on road courses in recent years, putting an added emphasis on right-handed turns. The results haven’t matched the effort yet, outside of a pair of top 10s in 2022 at Indianapolis and the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course. Specifically at Sonoma, Wallace has just one top-15 finish in five starts. Three of those have resulted outside the top 25. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Whenever Keselowski is listed as someone to stay away from, he tends to have a good performance. Last week at Gateway, he finished third, and he enters Sonoma with three straight top-five finishes for the first time since 2020. Road courses have been unkind to Keselowski in recent years, though. He has a single top-10 finish in the last 19 road course races.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Kyle Busch

With Busch’s track record at Sonoma, you would think he’d get the advantage. But this is a heads-up matchup and Gibbs is sitting pretty in the playoff battle, 107 points ahead of the elimination line. That gives the No. 54 team some wiggle room to chase Gibbs’ first victory. The 21-year-old is a sporty road racer himself, finishing third at COTA in March. Rolling with Gibbs this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Cindric vs. Ross Chastain

The same case could be made here. Cindric knows that in all likelihood, the No. 2 team will be a part of the playoffs virtue of his Gateway win. Chastain might need to chase points, which could hurt his track position to begin the final stage. Cindric is an expert on road courses, too, so he gets the nod this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

For how good Elliott and Reddick are on road courses, neither have won at Sonoma. The 2020 Cup champion has been close with five top-10 finishes in seven starts. Meanwhile, Reddick, who has become an exceptional road course competitor, has a best finish of 19th in three Sonoma starts. There is a small asterisk because he was running in the back half of the top 10 last year when blowing a tire. Still, the numbers speak for themselves. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Daniel Suarez vs. Michael McDowell

McDowell is going to be on kill mode this weekend, needing a victory to qualify for the postseason. That comes with added pressure, but Suarez has been struggling mightily this season with a pair of top 10s through 15 races. Yet he has a win, which frees his strategy up this weekend. McDowell is the choice this weekend.

MY LINEUP: Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Austin Cindric