Power Rankings: Drivers below the bubble most likely to make a playoff run
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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the playoff-eligible drivers that are currently on the outside of the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs field by likelihood of finding their way into the postseason before NASCAR gets back in action with Sunday's Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
See each driver's current standings position, points below the bubble and Racing Insights' playoff prediction percentage, also featured weekly in NASCAR.com's Field of 16.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
18. Daniel Hemric
Standings: 30th (-236)
Racing Insights projection: 1.72%
Comment: Hemric's return to the Cup Series after his last full-time campaign in 2019 has resulted in much of the same, with a slightly worse average finish (23.0) than his rookie season five years ago. Nothing's impossible, of course, but the notion of him winning at this point to clinch a playoff berth is about as long a shot as it gets, though he does have a couple of nice runs lately at Nashville (ninth) and Chicago (12th).
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Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
17. Harrison Burton
Standings: 34th (-314)
Racing Insights projection: 1.05%
Comment: Burton also falls under the "never say never" banner, but it's hard to see a path to the playoffs with four races remaining for a driver that already knows he's being replaced at the end of the year with the team in search of better results. The Fords and Team Penske, which Wood Brothers Racing is aligned with, have worked well together at Daytona recently so that'd be his shot if it were to happen, but he'd need every factor to fall his way later this month.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
16. Ryan Preece
Standings: 26th (-223)
Racing Insights projection: 3.94%
Comment: Of Preece's 13 career top-10 finishes, five of them have come at the remaining regular season tracks, so he absolutely can't be ruled out as a complete non-factor the rest of the way. The sticking point is that those have come scattered across 173 career Cup Series starts with not even a whiff of Victory Lane among them (no laps led in his four career top fives). A win, if it were to happen, would be huge for his future prospects, though -- as of right now, Preece has no announced 2025 NASCAR plans.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
15. Zane Smith
Standings: 33rd (-304)
Racing Insights projection: 0.3%
Comment: Looking at Smith's RI projection, he's a clear long, long, long shot, but lest we forget that he nearly clinched a spot just over a month ago with a runner-up run at Nashville. He's another one that everything will need to fall into place for, but hey -- Spire Motorsports has won the summer Daytona race before. Certainly possible.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
14. Corey LaJoie
Standings: 28th (-228)
Racing Insights projection: 2.06%
Comment: Literally all of LaJoie's career top-five finishes (and top 10s) have come on superspeedway-style tracks -- the most recent of which came in this year's Daytona 500 -- so you look at the 2.5-mile Florida track as the one at which he'll have the best shot to make it happen, and it just might. The cruelest thing that could happen, of course, is if No. 7 were to miss the playoffs ... only to win at Atlanta in the postseason opener, which feels possible after some of his recent runs there.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
13. Justin Haley
Standings: 29th (-233)
Racing Insights projection: 0.74%
Comment: Well, as the victor of the aforementioned Spire win at Daytona, Haley obviously will have a shot to clinch his ticket to the playoffs at the lone remaining superspeedway in the regular season. He's become much more well-rounded since then (2019), however, looking competitive enough over the second half of this year's regular season that it wouldn't be the biggest shock to see him win at, say, Darlington, where he picked up a P9 earlier this season.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
12. Carson Hocevar
Standings: 24th (-169)
Racing Insights projection: 0.12%
Comment: Hocevar has only led three laps thus far in his rookie campaign but has done a remarkably good job keeping the car clean and finishing races, only crashing out of the Daytona 500 -- honestly, a testament to him because he's done himself no favors earning the positive sentiment of the rest of the field. He's also on a run that's seen him finish outside the top 20 just five times since the last Richmond race, so he's a consistent presence in the front half of the field. Not likely here, but nowhere close to impossible. Even if he misses, the arrow is pointing up on Hocevar and he could be a 2025 dark horse contender.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
11. Noah Gragson
Standings: 23rd (-169)
Racing Insights projection: 1.80%
Comment: Approximately 0% of Gragson's Cup career has gone according to plan so far, so why not — maybe he'll squeak in when few, if any, expect him to? No. 10 showed some spurts of true competitiveness earlier in the season before Stewart-Haas Racing indicated it would be shuttering at season's end, but the hunger within the shop to compete still feels there for now. Notably, he's won in the Xfinity Series at three of the four remaining tracks and notched a top five in each of his three outings at the one he didn't win at Michigan.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
10. John Hunter Nemechek
Standings: 31st (-245)
Racing Insights projection: 2.39%
Comment: Nemechek looked early on that he could potentially make things interesting after collecting a pair of top-seven finishes in the season's first five races. He's yet to repeat the feat, only notching one more top 10 since (a P8 at New Hampshire), with that standing as his only top-20 finish since Kansas. That said, Nemechek did just lead 16 laps at Indy and paced the field for 20 laps earlier this year at Talladega, so he's capable of finding the front of the field, he just needs to find a way to stay there.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
9. Austin Dillon
Standings: 32nd (-258)
Racing Insights projection: 1.07%
Comment: The four-time Cup Series race winner Dillon has been a playoff competitor several times throughout his career, so seeing him make it back there wouldn't feel out of place -- but this year has been a clear worst for him, on pace for a career-low in top 10s (just two so far) and average finish (24.5) while sitting outside the top 30 in points. The performance hasn't been there at all this year, but his history at the upcoming tracks is relatively favorable with past top fives at each.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
8. Chase Briscoe
Standings: 18th (-83)
Racing Insights projection: 5.16%
Comment: Briscoe still has an outside shot to make it on points, but he's doing himself no favors on making that a reality -- No. 14 has earned more than 16 points in just four of the past 11 races. He's talented enough to make it happen, but his track record at the remaining four venues isn't the most favorable, with just three top 10s in 24 combined starts.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
7. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Standings: 25th (-177)
Racing Insights projection: 1.61%
Comment: A playoff driver a season ago, last year's Daytona 500 winner has taken a dip back to his typical statistical pace this season, compiling a paltry 21.2 average finish with just five total laps led. Still, as a two-time Daytona winner, he's never really out of playoff contention until the field is locked after 26 races, so keep an eye on him when we head to Florida.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
6. Todd Gilliland
Standings: 20th (-118)
Racing Insights projection: 2.81%
Comment: Arguably the best "sleeper" on the list here, Gilliland has turned plenty of heads this season and has increased the value of his driver stock tremendously with some strong consistency. Given his consistent presence in and around the top 10 over the past three months it wouldn't surprise anybody to see him claim his spot at any of the remaining tracks, but one thing's for sure -- he's most certainly going to be a playoff contender for a long time.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
5. Erik Jones
Standings: 27th (-223)
Racing Insights projection: 2.5%
Comment: Jones is clearly, clearly a better driver than the results he's shown this season -- his worst to date, with just one top 10 thus far. The three-time playoff competitor doesn't have a whole lot to show from this year in terms of performance, but his three career victories have all come in two of the next four races in years past, one of which was a very unexpected 2022 Southern 500 win. He's a major long shot, but the pedigree is very much there.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
4. Michael McDowell
Standings: 21st (-148)
Racing Insights projection: 5.3%
Comment: McDowell has had a decent season, leading a career-high 151 laps on the heels of the first three poles of his lengthy career. Failing to win at any of the road courses thus far likely feels like a large missed opportunity for him, but he's still got a decent shot -- the 2021 Daytona 500 winner has three top 10s in the past five Darlington races as well.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
3. Josh Berry
Standings: 22nd (-164)
Racing Insights projection: 6.53%
Comment: Looking at Berry's recent runs, 31 points collected since June doesn't scream "playoff contender" but his short-track resumé certainly does. Berry notched top 10s in the final two races of June -- both short tracks -- and slots in at 22-1 odds to win Richmond to open the week. Berry's race at Richmond may just be SHR's best overall shot at fielding a playoff driver in its final season, and the organization will likely throw all its remaining resources at winning this weekend.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
2. Kyle Busch
Standings: 19th (-112)
Racing Insights projection: 10.07%
Comment: Four races to go, and Rowdy has essentially a 1-in-10 chance of making the playoffs. What world is this? Well, it's probably still a world in which he can win at any track -- so he's absolutely got a shot -- but can't seem to get anything to go his way lately, with just one incident-free race in the last 12 outings. Perhaps the two-week break was enough to recalibrate a late-regular-season reset and he goes on a vintage Tony Stewart-like run to close out his third championship.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
1. Bubba Wallace
Standings: 17th (-7)
Racing Insights projection: 44.52%
Comment: If there's one driver on this list you should feel good about seeing compete for a title this postseason, it's Wallace. One of the hottest drivers in the sport at this most pivotal time, No. 23 has gained 44 points on the bubble in the last three races alone to go from 51 points out to seven points out with the bubble driver ahead of him (Ross Chastain) dropping like a rock. Nothing is a lock and with no top 10s in 12 Richmond starts it's possible he slips back this weekend, but right now it appears 23XI Racing could put both of its drivers in the playoffs.