Fantasy Fastlane: Ford looks for 10th straight victory at Michigan

Last year’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway came down to a heads-up battle between Martin Truex Jr. and Chris Buescher, with the latter coming away as the victor. That was the ninth straight victory for the Blue Oval at MIS, a skip and a hop away from the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Michigan. Toyota, on the other hand, hasn’t won at the 2.0-mile oval since 2015.  

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

With how much speed Hamlin has displayed all season, you could realistically start him at just about any track on the circuit with the exception of road courses. The No. 11 team has a pair of third-place finishes in the two Next Gen races at Michigan, and has seven top-10 finishes over the last eight events here. With Darlington looming in a couple of weeks and only having one start remaining with Hamlin in the regular season, I’ll have to bite the bullet and pass this weekend, but he's a great option if you have the uses. 

MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

This is starting to look similar to my Richmond lineup last weekend. Given Truex hadn’t had an engine issue all season prior to Richmond, it's hard to believe he would go two straight races with such luck. However, his JGR teammate and fellow bubble driver Ty Gibbs experienced that misfortune at Pocono and Indianapolis. Truex has seven straight top-10 finishes at Michigan, with a handful of those cracking the top five. The No. 19 team, which hasn’t seen a top-five finish since early May, needs to turn its season around now. 

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 8-1

Though Michigan is a high-banked, 2.0-mile oval, it isn’t uncommon for drivers who run well at Pocono and Indianapolis to also see success at Michigan. Ford has also won the last nine events at Michigan, with its most recent defeat coming in 2017. Blaney captured the checkered flag in 2021 and has seven top-10 finishes in his last nine starts here. The No. 12 car was also dominant last month at Pocono, and Blaney was in position to win the Brickyard 400. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Logano left Richmond raging after getting dumped by Dillon on the final lap. The good news for the No. 22 team is it looks as though it has turned the corner on the season. Logano is particularly strong at Michigan, as his three triumphs are tied with Kyle Larson to be the series' active wins leader at MIS. He has top-10 finishes in two–thirds of his Michigan starts.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Not sure that the defending winner classifies as a sleeper, but Buescher needs to stop the bleeding, as the No. 17 team has given away chunks of points in recent races. Another victory at Michigan would change Buscher’s game plan for the final two races of the regular season, but he is surely not a lock for the postseason, entering Michigan on the playoff bubble. His win last year was a tad surprising, as he had one previous top-10 finish in 12 starts at Michigan. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Michigan might possibly be Wallace's best remaining regular-season track, and the No. 23 team is surging entering this weekend. Not long ago, Wallace's chances of pointing his way into the postseason looked bleak. With a strong showing at Richmond, he leaped two spots on the playoff grid and is three points to the good now. Not a comfortable spot to be at all, but he enters Michigan with three straight top-10 finishes for the first time in more than a calendar year. Wallace has just a pair of top 10s in 10 MIS starts but showed race-winning speed in 2022. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Might as well throw another bubble driver in here, right? The No. 54 team has sunk in the regular season standings over the last two-and-a-half months with Gibbs having a single top-10 finish over the last nine races. In that span, he has six finishes outside the top 20 with an average result of 20.8. The positive for Gibbs is that he has an average finish of 10.5 in two Cup starts at Michigan with an Xfinity Series victory on his resume. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

Reddick has put together his best string of races at the Cup level over the last two months. He leads the series in top fives (10) and top 10s (16), including six straight finishes of sixth or better. If it wasn’t for a disastrous final pit stop last year at MIS, Reddick would have been in the mix for the victory. Instead, he dropped to 30th. In five starts at Michigan, he has an average finish of 26th. Not ideal for a driver only five points out of the regular season championship lead. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Another big-name Toyota driver is off the board this weekend. The truth is, like Reddick, Bell has struggled at Michigan. He has yet to crack the top 10, and the number to watch is 13. Bell has a trio of 13th-place efforts in five starts at the 2-mile oval. This theory could change depending on how much speed Bell has during practice, but don’t settle for 13th from one of the season's best drivers. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

The good news for Bowman is his best Michigan finish came in the Next Gen car’s debut at the track. The bad news is that it was only good enough for ninth. In 10 starts with Hendrick at Michigan, he has a trio of top-10 efforts with an average finishing position of 19th. The law of averages isn’t in his favor this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Austin Dillon vs. Bubba Wallace

After leaving multiple drivers upset with his final-lap tactics at Richmond, Dillon heads to another one of his best tracks on the schedule. Dillon has top 10s in 25% of his Michigan starts, though just one of those have come in the last seven races. Wallace is on the upswing, and Dillon has still had a lackluster season despite winning at Richmond. Taking the No. 23 car this weekend. 

Chase Elliott vs. Joey Logano

Since Elliott was a rookie, he’s been the model of consistency at Michigan. He kicked off his tenure with Hendrick by scoring three straight runner-up finishes here. Since then, he hasn’t scored another top-five finish in 10 starts, but has a strong average finish of 10.2. Logano has found Victory Lane three times with Team Penske, all while starting from the pole position. Going to give the slight advantage to Elliott, though two of his three starts that haven’t ended in top 10s at Michigan have been in the two Next Gen races. 

Kyle Larson vs. Ryan Blaney

Recent history says to pick a Ford, though Larson has been stellar at Michigan with three victories (all consecutively from 2016 to 2017), tied for the most he has at a single track (Las Vegas). He’s never finished worse than seventh in three starts with Hendrick. Blaney will be a threat and we documented his numbers earlier, but Larson needs a strong race after the regular season championship battle tightened even further following Richmond.

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Ross Chastain

Chastain got a much-needed top-five finish at Richmond, his first on an oval since Las Vegas on March 3. Yet, he dipped below the elimination line for the first time all season. His Michigan numbers, though limited, don’t stand out with competitive race teams, with two finishes outside the top 20 in three starts. Meanwhile, if Truex has a clean race with few mistakes, he could score his first Michigan win in his final start at the venue. 

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Bubba Wallace