Fantasy Fastlane: Spin the wheel of fortune at Daytona

Even though the summer race at Daytona International Speedway was bumped up to the penultimate regular-season event in 2024, desperation will be at an all-time high for many drivers. There are tight battles for both the Regular Season Championship and the playoff bubble, but drivers who have no chance of making the playoffs on points will solely be focused on the win. When it comes to creating a fantasy lineup, it might be beneficial to have a sprinkling of all categories. With how fierce this race can get, it might be better to choose numbers out of a hat and hope those cars make it to the finish. You also might have a better chance at winning the lottery than having the best lineup this weekend. But hey, someone must win. 

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MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Such is the case for many drivers at Daytona, Byron has been feast or famine at the superspeedway throughout his career. He scored his first Cup win in this race four years ago and most recently, he won this year’s Daytona 500. Byron is touted as one of the best superspeedway competitors in the garage. His crash rate at Daytona is a tad worrying, though, with seven DNFs in 13 starts. He’s trying to become the first driver since Jimmie Johnson (2013) to sweep the two Daytona races in the same year. 

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 12-1

With a loyal team owner/teammate in tow, Buescher enters Daytona as the defending summer race winner. For a drawn-out period, he flew under the radar on superspeedways. RFK has always put an added emphasis on its drafting program, and it’s paid off for Buescher, who has four top-10 finishes in Daytona starts driving the No. 17 car. Salvaging a sixth-place finish at Michigan, Buescher gapped the playoff bubble by 16 points, giving him some wiggle room heading into Daytona. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Logano’s aggressive tactics can be both beneficial and a detriment on superspeedways. What can’t be denied is that he always runs up front in these races. He cracked the top five in both Daytona races last year and led a race-high 45 laps in the Daytona 500. The No. 22 car has led double-digit laps in eight of the last 11 Daytona races, with five of those being more than 25 laps. 

MUST START:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Prior to being an innocent bystander of Kyle Larson spinning at Michigan, Wallace was on a heater and had the third-best average finish over the prior five races. He’s also known for his aggressive style and not settling in on superspeedways. The pressure was ramped up for Wallace in this race last year, though he just needed there not to be a new winner. This time around, he doesn’t need a new winner and must capitalize on points, entering the race one point behind Ross Chastain for the bubble spot. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Had the caution flown just a few seconds later in the Daytona 500 this year, it would have been Bowman who was celebrating his first crown-jewel victory. Instead, he was a bridesmaid. The good news for the No. 48 team is Bowman has the best DNF rate of the 20 drivers in the field who have made at least 10 starts at Daytona. He has a single DNF in 16 starts, and he is riding a streak of three consecutive top 10s.  

SLEEPER PICK:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

Whenever Daytona looms in the summer, it feels like an upset winner could end up in Victory Lane. There might be no better superspeedway racer in the garage that could turn the playoff picture upside down than Stenhouse. All three of his Cup wins have come on superspeedways, including last year’s Daytona 500. That was the lone exception in the Next Gen era, as he’s wrecked out of the other four Daytona races. It still wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the No. 47 car at the front.

SLEEPER PICK:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Ford Performance has dominated this year in qualifying on superspeedways. McDowell has slayed in those one-lap runs, winning the pole at both Atlanta and Talladega, and qualifying on the front row for the Daytona 500. There’s no doubt he’s going to have speed, and he knows how to work the draft with eight top-10 finishes at Daytona alone. This could be another potential upset winner.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 12-1

With how frequently Keselowski runs at the front at Daytona, it’s shocking that he has just a single victory at the track, coming eight years ago. But having the dominant car never guarantees a driver success here. Keselowski has 15 DNFs in 30 career starts at the famed superspeedway. Dating back to the 2017 Great American Race, he has 11 DNFs in 15 starts. So even though he finished runner-up last year, I’m not touching those numbers.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

With a rash of superspeedways coming up over the final third of the season, these are prime races to not have Larson in your lineup. While he’s improved exponentially at drafting-style tracks, he’s yet to win and often wrecks out. He has nine DNFs in 20 Daytona starts and doesn’t have a single top-five effort.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Suárez punched his playoff ticket by winning at a drafting track earlier this season. But it’s best to look away at his Daytona numbers. He has 10 DNFs in 14 starts with an average finish of 26.8. That is the worst DNF rate of the 20 drivers who have made at least 10 Daytona starts. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

The two Bluegreen Vacation Duel winners from earlier this season never previously had great runs at Daytona. Reddick played wingman to Austin Dillon in 2022 but scored his first superspeedway win at Talladega in April. Bell is not shy to voice his opinion on superspeedways, but he does have consecutive third-place finishes in the Daytona 500 and has shown power at the front of the pack. Give me Bell this weekend, though Reddick is by far the hottest driver in Cup right now.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Ryan Blaney

Two of the best superspeedway drivers in the garage are opponents here, and both have scored victories at the World Center of Racing. Much of Hamlin’s success comes in the crown-jewel event, while Blaney won this race in 2021. I’ll take Hamlin, knowing this is a heads-up battle and he has fewer DNFs in more than double Blaney’s starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Chris Buescher

With Chastain spinning in overtime at Michigan, Buescher gapped the No. 1 car by 15 points heading into Daytona. Chastain has a trio of top-10 finishes, including his first career top-10 finish with Premium Motorsports. Buescher always finds a way to be competitive at the front of the field, so the odds are in his favor at Daytona.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Bubba Wallace

There’s a good chance that like the Reddick and Bell matchup from above that these Toyota drivers will be working with one another during the race. That can also have a downside, as it did at Talladega in April with Toyotas wrecking each other. Wallace has the experience advantage and knows how to maneuver his car to be towards the front. Gibbs is still learning that trait, with a prime example being him going for the lead in the final laps at Talladega and dropping to 22nd when nobody helped. 

MY LINEUP: William Byron, Chris Buescher, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman

GARAGE: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.