Power Rankings: Even Larson’s not a lock to advance as raucous Round of 16 rolls on at Bristol

NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs drivers after Chris Buescher's win at Watkins Glen International and before Sunday's Round of 16 elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

16. Harrison Burton (--)

Season-high: 16
Season-low: Out

Comment: After struggling at Atlanta to capitalize on his likely lone opportunity to win this round, Burton had another shot to make moves with so many playoff contenders having wacky days at The Glen. Instead, he failed to finish inside the top 20 for the eighth time in the last 10 races and faces likely elimination this weekend. In three starts at Bristol he's averaged a 25.3 finish with the worst (32nd) coming this spring.

15. Brad Keselowski (-2)

Season-high: 5
Season-low: 18

Comment: Keselowski has seen his finishing position diminish every week since a fifth-place run at Michigan, putting him in a rough spot coming to the elimination race at Bristol. That can't be a great feeling, especially seeing his non-playoff teammate Buescher win this past weekend. The three-time Bristol winner is more than capable of scooting into the Round of 12 with a victory on Saturday, though, after leading laps in eight of the last nine at the Tennessee track.

14. Martin Truex Jr. (--)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 14

Comment: One of a small handful of playoff drivers with single-digit top 10s on the year -- and this 20th-place finish at The Glen marking his best showing in more than two months -- Truex's playoff hopes likely weren't long to begin with in his final full-time season. The fact that the last dregs of his championship dreams come down to Bristol is about as bad as it gets for the 2017 title winner, with the short track standing as arguably his worst non-superspeedway track.

13. Denny Hamlin (-2)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 13

Comment: It's so odd to see this No. 11 team, typically so remarkably in the class of the elite across the board, just struggling to put clean races together for essentially the entire second half of the season so far. Hamlin was likely in the Championship 4 in more brackets than not, yet faces a potential elimination immediately after collecting just 28 total points in the playoffs so far. The good news for him? He's proven he can beat your favorite driver -- all of them -- when it matters and not only is he the defending winner of this particular race but also took a trip to Victory Lane at Bristol in the spring.

12. Ty Gibbs (--)

Season-high: 4
Season-low: 15

Comment: It appeared Gibbs was starting to rekindle some of his early-season heat with a pair of top fives at Michigan and Daytona before settling back into the 20th-range the past three weeks. Even still, he's six points to the good heading into the weekend and has been somewhat exceptional at Bristol in his first handful of starts there, leading 100-plus laps each of the last two.

11. William Byron (-5)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 11

Comment: A 25-point cushion isn't quite in "not going to sleep this week" territory, but Byron probably didn't expect to have to sweat Bristol at all as a past winner at both Atlanta and Watkins Glen, yet here we are. Amazingly, he's never led a single one of the 4,714 laps he's run at Bristol, but does have top 10s in four of the past six races there. He's still got a better shot to advance than not, but he's in no way safe.

10. Chase Elliott (-1)

Season-high: 2
Season-low: 17

Comment: Elliott is still collecting a serviceable amount of points, but it's notable that he has just one top 10 in the last five races with an eighth-place result in kind of a crapshoot at Atlanta. A Bristol win feels like an eventuality for him, though, and the 2022 Night Race runner-up might just punch his ticket to the Round of 12 with a victory, despite some recent down weeks.

9. Chase Briscoe (+6)

Season-high: 9
Season-low: Out

Comment: Say what you will, but Briscoe has been the top-finishing championship-eligible driver in two of the past three weeks (while being the worst one last week, championship-eligible or not), thus finding himself just above the elimination line to the surprise of many. It's no guarantee, but for now -- SHR's title hopes live on. Though Briscoe has no top 10s at Bristol, three of his four races there have netted finishes inside the top 15 which might just be enough to squeak through on points.

8. Daniel Suárez (+2)

Season-high: 8
Season-low: Out

Comment: There are a lot of chirpers out there who had Suárez as an easy Round of 16 exit and he's, well, making them look a little silly right now with a 36-point cushion heading into the elimination race. The reality is that No. 99 has been racing the second half of the season like a driver with legs to go further on in the playoffs, which is notable considering he won in the first half. Early on in his career he looked a bit sporty at Bristol in top-tier equipment and it feels more likely than not he'll be able to advance on Saturday if he can avoid any trouble.

7. Tyler Reddick (-4)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 14

Comment: Reddick has felt like a consistent front-of-field presence nearly the entire year, but has led just a single lap in the past four races despite securing the Regular Season Championship in that time frame. The Glen was his second-worst finish since Darlington in the spring, and he has just one top 10 at Bristol in six tries. A 30-point cushion is strong, but by no means unsurmountable for those trying to leapfrog him.

6. Austin Cindric (+2)

Season-high: 6
Season-low: Out

Comment: Austin Cindric, ladies and gentlemen. People seem to forget that the Team Penske No. 2 car has been a perennial title contender for decades and there's a reason Roger Penske has entrusted the young driver to helm the ride with no end in sight. Third in points at this juncture of the season is no joke, but he'll get put to a significant test at Bristol, where he's yet to finish better than 20th and has never led a lap.

5. Kyle Larson (--)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 5

Comment: How crazy are these playoffs already? Kyle Larson, who very nearly won the Regular Season Championship just two weeks ago and fell short by a single point, is anything but a lock to advance this weekend despite Bristol being one of his best tracks. His history there is super encouraging, however, with 10 top 10s -- including a win -- in the last 11 races and 17 or more laps led in nine of the last 10. 

4. Alex Bowman (+3)

Season-high: 4
Season-low: 18

Comment: Bowman has exactly one finish better than 16th since Pocono and yet is still scraping together enough points to be significantly more than relevant -- he's sitting fourth in points the highest Chevrolet driver. Bowman notched a P4 at Bristol earlier this year, but overall it's been an extremely hit-or-miss track for him, with five finishes of 32nd or worse among his 14 starts there, too.

3. Ryan Blaney (-2)

Season-high: 2
Season-low: 12

Comment: Two of Blaney's past few weeks have resulted in early exits for a combined two points, but thankfully he has the Atlanta opener to lean on and a 29-point cushion. Still not where the 2023 champ wants to be, as there's a realistic shot he's eliminated in the first round of his title defense a la teammate Joey Logano last year. This is a very real possibility, too -- Blaney has just one top 10 in the last six Bristol races despite leading multiple laps in four of them.

2. Joey Logano (+2)

Season-high: 2
Season-low: 20

Comment: By most statistical measures, Logano is having his worst season since joining Team Penske, yet he's literally the only guy that's going to be comfortable when the green flag drops Saturday night at Bristol, having already locked into the Round of 12. This means he can just go for the win, and it's entirely possible he achieves it. Logano hasn't finished in the top 10 at the track since 2019, but he won two Night Races in a row in 2014-15 during a stretch when he was quite formidable there. 

1. Christopher Bell (+1)

Season-high: 1
Season-low: 15

Comment: At Watkins Glen, Bell turned in his second-worst finish since Chicago, so why the bump up to No. 1? Well, for starters, his P14 was still fifth-best among playoff drivers and he's in the best shape of anybody not nicknamed "Sliced Bread." He's also been the most consistent championship contender during an uproarious stretch of races for the sport's best, turning in five top-six results from Indy-on, with one of his strongest tracks on deck. The No. 20 driver has three straight top 10s at Bristol, leading a combined 359 laps across them.