Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Title contenders in trouble at Bristol

After a plague-filled Watkins Glen race last weekend for most of the playoff field, it's time for the title-eligible drivers to pick it up heading into what should be a thrilling Bristol Night Race on Saturday (7 p.m., ET, USA Network, NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). 

See where each driver in the postseason stands entering Bristol with the latest edition of Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity, with stats provided by Racing Insights. 

Safely above the elimination line

1. Joey Logano (ADV)

2. Christopher Bell (plus-46)

3. Austin Cindric (plus-43)

4. Alex Bowman (plus-41)

Not as safe but still with a high-percentage chance of advancing:

5. Daniel Suárez (plus-36)

6. Tyler Reddick (plus-30)

7. Chase Elliott (plus-30)

8. Ryan Blaney (plus-29)

Kyle Larson

Points above elimination line: 26

Chances of advancing to next round: 92.10%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Hot: A championship favorite and the top seed entering the playoffs, Larson needs to right the ship as soon as possible with four finishes outside the top 10 in the last five races. Luckily for the No. 5 team, Bristol is one of its best tracks with top-five results in the last four Bristol races, including a win in 2021. 

William Byron

Points above elimination line: 25

Chances of advancing to next round: 90.80%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Bristol outlook -- Hit or Miss: Since Byron's stretch of three wins to kick-start 2024, he's only been a true contender for his fourth victory a handful of times since. There are a lot of questions surrounding Byron entering Saturday night's race, but he's finished top 10 in the last three night races at Bristol. However, he was 35th in the spring after being caught up in an early incident. 

Chase Briscoe

Points above elimination line: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 56.60%

Trending: Win or Miss

Bristol outlook -- Cold: Briscoe moved above the elimination line after avoiding the attrition most playoff drivers endured at Watkins Glen. However, a single-digit cushion is not best-case scenario for the No. 14 driver with only three top 15s to show for at Bristol. 

Ty Gibbs

Points above elimination line: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 55.40%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Warm: Gibbs should be considered among the favorites to finally nab his first career Cup Series win Saturday night. He swept the stages in the spring race and managed a top-10 result amid chaos with the extreme tire fall-off. 

Denny Hamlin

Points below elimination line: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 65.20%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Hot: Despite being a three-time winner in 2024, Hamlin's current average finish (15.6) is now trending toward being his worst season since 2013. However, Bristol and concrete surfaces are a playground for the No. 11 driver as he's won the last two races at Bristol and won earlier this year at Dover. 

Brad Keselowski

Points below elimination line: 12

Chances of advancing to next round: 36.50%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Warm: Keselowski will need stage points and a top-10 result to safely move on to the Round of 12, and Bristol is the perfect place for the No. 6 RFK Racing team to do so. Both Keselowski and Chris Buescher have been great at Bristol in the Next Gen car, with Buescher winning the 2022 night race and Keselowski finishing third in the spring. 

Martin Truex Jr.

Points below elimination line: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 25.70%

Trending: Ice Cold

Bristol outlook -- Recently warm: Truex and the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team are likely praying for the same tire fall-off that occurred at Bristol in the spring as they fought Hamlin to the finish line to score a second-place result. They'll need something similar to that, but the trends do not favor Truex as he's on pace to have his worst Cup Season since 2014 in terms of average finish (17.8). 

Harrison Burton

Points below elimination line: 20

Chances of advancing to next round: 6.00%

Trending: Win or Miss

Bristol outlook -- Cold: It's going to take the biggest Hail Mary for Burton to get into the Round of 12 but if Burton can keep his No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford straight amid a potential show of tire conservation, then there could be an outside shot for another upset bid.