Bubble Watch: Running the perfect line at Homestead

Joey Logano's stunning win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last weekend created quite the margin between the top four and those below the elimination line entering Sunday's midpoint in the Round of 8 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). 

There will be little margin for error as drivers attempt to rim-ride the highest line possible for speed at the worn-out oval. See who's trending toward big days on Sunday with stats provided by Racing Insights. 

RELATED: Homestead schedule | Clinching scenarios

Safely above the elimination line

1. Joey Logano (ADV)

Christopher Bell

Points above elimination line: 42

Chances of advancing to next round: 90.65%

Trending: Hot

Homestead outlook -- Hot: Entering as the defending winner at the South Florida oval, the No. 20 will have a good shot to either win his way into the Championship 4 for a third consecutive season or do it via points given his healthy separation from the elimination line. Bell hasn't finished worse than seventh in the last five races. 

Kyle Larson

Points above elimination line: 35

Chances of advancing to next round: 81.93%

Trending: Warm

Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: There's no doubt that Larson will be in contention to win Sunday's race, but that's only if the No. 5 driver can have a clean day, which was not the case last year as Larson came down pit road too hot and slammed into the pit-entry barrels to end his day. While a 35-point cushion is relatively safe for Larson, a win for anyone below the 2021 champ will tighten the margin to make Martinsville a potentially stressful closer to the Round of 8 for the No. 5 team. 

William Byron

Points above elimination line: 27

Chances of advancing to next round: 60.40%

Trending: Hot

Homestead outlook -- Warm: A clean day at Vegas didn't really do much for Byron due to Logano's win, but the No. 24 driver will have a good shot to land his fifth consecutive top-five finish. He won at Homestead in 2021 and finished fourth in last year's event. 

Denny Hamlin

Points below elimination line: 27

Chances of advancing to next round: 28.48%

Trending: Warm

Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: Everyone beneath the elimination line at the moment is flirting with must-win scenarios. Luckily for Hamlin, he's won at Homestead three times in his career, but a steering failure late in last year's Homestead race doomed the No. 11's playoff run, and the team was eliminated at Martinsville. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below elimination line: 30

Chances of advancing to next round: 17.86%

Trending: Ice Cold

Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: If Reddick is going to make the Championship 4, he's likely going to have to win on Sunday with Martinsville not being one of his better tracks. But Reddick's playoff run has been one to forget, with just one top 10 in seven races, and at Vegas, the No. 45 was on its roof. 

Ryan Blaney

Points below elimination line: 47

Chances of advancing to next round: 10.51%

Trending: Cold

Homestead outlook -- Hit or Miss: Homestead isn't one of Blaney's best tracks historically, but the defending series champ scored a career-best runner-up finish at the oval last year, which set him up for his crowning moment in Phoenix. He can do so again this weekend, but this time, he's likely going to need to win after being involved in the Vegas wreck with Reddick and Chase Elliott. 

Chase Elliott

Points below elimination line: 53

Chances of advancing to next round: 10.17%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Homestead outlook -- Cold: Now in a must-win situation for the rest of the playoffs, Homestead has not been kind to the No. 9 team recently, with three straight results outside the top 10. Outside of the Bristol Night Race, Elliott hasn't been a threat to grab a checkered flag since his lone win of the season at Texas.