Racing Insights: More Team Penske domination or is trouble looming?

After a milestone win for William Byron by earning back-to-back Daytona 500 triumphs, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is now in full swing.

What’s next? Another action-packed drafting track at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday (3 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

In both Atlanta races last year, we saw thrilling closing laps that produced memorable finishes. Daniel Suárez won epically with a last-lap pass against Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch in the spring, and Joey Logano kick-started his championship run by threading the needle and leading the final two laps in the playoffs. So it feels as though another nail-biter could be set to take shape this weekend.

RELATED: Atlanta weekend schedule

It’s no secret Team Penske is superior at drafting tracks in recent years. Racing Insights is bullish on the organization to assert its dominance once again, with its trio finishing in the top 10 off the heels of a weekend where all three drivers led 20-plus laps in the “Great American Race.” Early metrics point to Blaney as the projected winner, with Austin Cindric close behind in fourth place and reigning champ Logano in seventh. All three drivers will start in the top five after Saturday’s qualifying.

Entering 2025, Team Penske has gone the last 11 seasons recording at least one win on a drafting track. In addition, it is the only organization with three different drivers to earn a drafting-track win in the Next Gen era. The dominance doesn’t end there, though — all three drivers rank at the top for most laps led on drafting tracks over the previous 19 races since the start of 2022 (Logano: 450, Cindric: 327, Blaney: 297).

The stats are eye-popping and the speed is there for all three cars to be in the mix, but it’s no surefire bet that any one of the Penske cars wins. The final green-flag stretch was five laps or fewer in four of the previous five Atlanta races. Combine that with the fact there have been 54 cautions and 36 DNFs in the six races on the new Atlanta configuration, and trouble may be looming around any corner. So, while it’s likely that one or all three of the Team Penske Fords will lead laps this Sunday, the most important one is the last lap, and it will take a total team effort to navigate the chaos.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

DANIEL SUÁREZ: Everyone remembers Suárez’s stunning win a year ago, but it’s easy to forget he was damn near close to sweeping both Atlanta races last year. He’s netted top 10s in five of the last six races in the Peach State. Plus, his average finish of 7.33 on the new Atlanta layout ranks second only to Blaney.

CHASE ELLIOTT: As for who has the third-best average finish on the new Atlanta layout, that would be the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports driver (8.6). After his stellar 2024 season and a dominant Clash performance, the Dawsonville, Georgia, native may be one to watch.

KYLE BUSCH: I know I put Rowdy down here a lot, but it’s for good reason. He was a part of that historic finish last year, and he’s been exceptional at Atlanta under the RCR banner. In four starts, he has four top 10s — so the winless streak has to end this week, right?

TODD GILLILAND: Gilliland started second and led the most laps in this race last year. He’s also started in the top 10 in the last three Atlanta races and qualified fifth yesterday, making him a dark-horse candidate to win.

JOHN HUNTER NEMECHEK: Nemechek worked his way to a career-best finish of fifth in last week’s Daytona 500, which now makes half of his eight career top 10s by way of drafting tracks. He did finish 21st and 33rd in both Atlanta races a season ago, though, so consider this a long-shot pick.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2025 AMBETTER HEALTH 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.