While the Daytona 500 may be in the books, I’m approaching NASCAR odds for Atlanta Motor Speedway in a very similar fashion.
My personal betting strategy is to have lighter cards for superspeedway races due to the sheer unpredictability of tracks like Atlanta, Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, and that’s exactly how I’m making my NASCAR picks for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 (3 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
ATLANTA: Starting lineup | Full projected results
Action Network’s Nick Giffen has already laid out a handful of bets I like, and I’m tacking on one more long-shot pick for Sunday’s race.
NASCAR Odds, Best Bet Pick for Atlanta
*Odds as of Saturday night
I’m quite surprised to see a driver like Tyler Reddick available at 40-1 odds (ESPN BET) heading into Sunday’s race.
Yes, Reddick and the entire Toyota organization struggled in qualifying but likely sacrificed one-lap speed for handling, which could very well give them an advantage on older tires at Atlanta.
Does qualifying matter? Sure. But at a track like Atlanta, it’s not as important as non-superspeedway tracks, especially for cars set up to race well as opposed to posting one fast lap for starting position.
Reddick is also no slouch on superspeedways, notching a win at Talladega and a sixth-place finish at Atlanta in 2024, as well as a runner-up finish in last weekend’s Daytona 500.
To be frank, I’m looking for reasons to talk myself out of this bet but simply cannot pass on a driver with Reddick’s talent, in very fast 23XI Racing equipment and with recent success on superspeedways at a long-shot price of 40-1.
NASCAR Pick: Tyler Reddick (40-1) to Win — ESPN Bet