Racing Insights: COTA could kick-start Christopher Bell’s year of dominance

Editor’s note: Projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

Christopher Bell punched his ticket to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs after emerging late at Atlanta Motor Speedway to win a thriller last week. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has had ups and downs on drafting tracks, but an early win allows him to stack more victories and playoff points before the regular season concludes.

Bell could do just that today at Circuit of The Americas (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as the 20-turn, 2.4-mile road course in Austin, Texas, is a track that’s without a doubt in the driver’s wheelhouse.

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Looking at COTA in particular, Bell has two top-five finishes in four Cup races there, including a runner-up finish last year. Bell’s average start at COTA is 8.8, which is important given that in 15 of the last 17 road-course races with the Next Gen car, the eventual race winner started in the top eight. On road courses in general, Bell has two wins out of 26 starts, and last season, he scored 141 points via road courses (tied for sixth-most). Finally, he’s also in a three-way tie with Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick for the most stage wins on road courses since the start of 2022 (4).

Even after a career year in 2024, Bell still felt the No. 20 team “left a ton on the table.” This season, he’s already won earlier than he did last year, and aside from a slight dip in 2023, his numbers across the board have improved every year since his rookie season. 2025 could be the year where Bell erupts for multiple wins and has a dominant performance all around.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Three of Reddick’s eight Cup Series wins have come at road courses. Last season, he led all drivers in points scored on road courses with 160. In the Next Gen car, Reddick has the second most top fives (7), top 10s (12) and led the most laps (197) on road courses. He’ll start P1 after landing the Busch Light Pole Award.

KYLE LARSON: Listing all of Hendrick Motorsports is tempting given how much the organization excels on road courses. But Larson has been the best out of the quartet in recent years; he won twice on road courses last year and was right behind Reddick in points scored on road courses last season (151).

ROSS CHASTAIN: Chastain played spoiler last year in the Cup Series Playoffs, but Sunday is a golden opportunity for the driver of the No. 1 to lock in early. Chastain has an average finish of fourth at COTA — the best out of anyone. Plus, he and Alex Bowman are the only two drivers to net top 10s in all four Cup events at the track.

AUSTIN CINDRIC: Cindric put himself in a position to win each of the last two Cup Series races, and in both races, he’s gone home with a torn-up race car. With a sportscar racing background, he’s a bit of a road-course ringer — earning two top 10s at COTA with a best finish of sixth in 2023.

CONNOR ZILISCH: The 18-year-old phenom is making his highly anticipated Cup Series debut, and he could easily be a threat. For starters, in both his Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series debuts, Zilisch made a quick impression. His truck debut was at COTA and he won the pole before later wheeling to a fourth-place finish. As for Xfinity, he won the pole and went to Victory Lane at Watkins Glen International – then did the same this weekend in Austin. It’s hard to imagine he could have similar success amongst the sport’s best, but certainly not impossible.

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RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE ECHOPARK AUTOMOTIVE GRAND PRIX

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on raceday with practice and qualifying factored in.