Fantasy Fastlane: Mix of road experts and COTA front-runners

Welp, Atlanta didn’t go as planned for your boy, so I’m looking for a rebound weekend at Circuit of The Americas. New to COTA in 2025 is a fresh layout. The track will still have 20 turns, but will be contested on the much shorter course, measuring 2.3 miles in length. This puts most drivers on an equal playing field this weekend, though Shane van Gisbergen has appeared on a similar shorter course at COTA in V8 Supercars. Regardless, the winner of the inaugural Chicago Street Course race believes the new version will add an additional passing zone and improve the racing.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season. 

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MUST START:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 88 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 5-1 

We remember what happened the last time the Cup Series visited a first-time road course, right? It was van Gisbergen that upset the field at the inaugural Chicago Street Race in his first start, becoming the first driver in 50 years to win their Cup debut. In the season-and-a-half since then, van Gisbergen has taken to NASCAR like a glove, always a factor at road courses, no matter the series. However, van Gisbergen will likely be racing for the win and abort stage points completely. The most points scored in any COTA race is 50 (Tyler Reddick in 2023). 

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 7-1 

Speak of the devil, Reddick has excelled at COTA. He has four top-10 finishes in as many starts on the bigger course, including a 2023 victory. Surprisingly, that’s the last time Reddick visited Victory Lane at a road course after winning three of the previous five. The No. 45 car should be a threat this weekend.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 15-2

I’m slightly bullish on taking Byron at COTA, believing this could be a monster season for him. But the No. 24 car dominated from the pole in 2024, leading nearly two-thirds of the race. In the last two COTA races, Byron has scored the most points (2024) and the second-most points (2023). Sure, it’s a different layout, but Byron has turned into a viable threat at road courses.

MUST START:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 20-1 

Bowman is sneaky good in the Texas heartland. He has three straight top-five finishes at COTA, including a runner-up finish in an epic last-lap battle in 2022. In all four visits, the No. 48 car has cracked the top 10 in the final rundown. The biggest change in the layout is the long back straightaway is chopped, but it’s hard to imagine drivers that haven’t had previous success will struggle with the newer course. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 25-1 

Last fall at Watkins Glen, Buescher finally sealed the deal on a road course after being the definition of consistent over the years. He did so in emphatic fashion, passing van Gisbergen on the final lap. His COTA numbers aren’t as stellar as at other road courses, but he has a pair of eighth-place finishes in the last two trips to his home state. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 71 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 35-1

During McDowell’s long stint with Front Row Motorsports, he shined at road courses, having a heavy background in turning left and right. Outside of the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, COTA might have been his biggest challenge, though, with a single top-10 finish in four starts. But pair McDowell and Spire on its first road course together and it could be a recipe for success. Corey LaJoie, who doesn’t consider himself the best of road racers, started last year’s race in fifth for Spire. That’s a good baseline for the No. 71 bunch. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Connor Zilisch | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 87 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 6-1

All eyes are on Zilisch this weekend as he makes his highly-anticipated Cup Series debut. Multiple drivers have coined Zilisch as a future superstar, as someone who’s risen through the stock car ranks in rapid fashion. Zilisch won his Xfinity Series debut last year at Watkins Glen International, and it wasn’t even close. The competition is much stiffer at the Cup level, but the 18-year-old won the Craftsman Truck Series pole at COTA last year – his series debut – by three-quarters of a second. This could be an SVG 2.0 from Chicago.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 9-1

This could come as a shocker because Larson is a six-time victor on road courses, but none have been at COTA. In three Next Gen races here, he has a best effort of 14th. Trust me, Larson is about to get a bundle of starts in upcoming weeks, but it would almost feel like a throwaway to use one this weekend. This could certainly change if the No. 5 car is lights out in practice.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 30-1

Hamlin said this week on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast that COTA was the best pace he had in 2024 on road courses. He won a stage and scored the eighth-most stage points for the event, but salvaged a 14th-place result. In 17 Next Gen road course races, the 54-time Cup winner has a single top 10 finish (Watkins Glen, 2023). 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 100-1

With three wild-card tracks opening the 2025 schedule, drivers needed to come away with as little damage as possible. Unfortunately for Keselowski, he sits 33rd in the championship standings and has a best finish of 26th. Road courses haven’t been his specialty in recent years, as the 2012 champion has one top-10 finish in the last 23 attempts. His last two COTA results have been worse than 30th.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Tyler Reddick

The four matchups this week rank high on the list of hardest to ever decide between. Bell just missed the cut for my starting lineup but has a pair of podium efforts in four COTA starts. Had last year’s race been a lap or two longer, he would have passed Byron for the victory. I’m taking my chances with Reddick, who has an inconceivable average finish of fifth.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Alex Bowman

Two poor finishes to kick off 2025 slot Gibbs 29th in points entering COTA. While he’s yet to break through for that coveted first Cup victory, he’s always a threat at road courses. Bowman’s average finish is 4.3 at COTA on the bigger course, so let’s ride with the No. 48 car this weekend. Both drivers are available in my lineup.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

AJ Allmendinger vs. Chase Elliott

Allmendinger could probably drive a tank to a top-10 finish at road courses – he’s elite when turning left and right. And while it seems like a distant memory, Elliott has seven road course victories, with the last of those coming in 2021 (Allmendinger has won twice since then at road courses). Kaulig is going to put an added emphasis on road courses, knowing that it could steal a playoff bid virtue of a win. This is a heads-up battle, and I think that favors the No. 16 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Shane van Gisbergen vs. Ross Chastain

Believe it or not, this Trackhouse teammate clash is a challenge to predict. Chastain scored his first Cup win at COTA in 2022 and has an average finish of fourth in four starts. Yet the No. 88 team will be looking for the win, as COTA is among the best shots SVG has during the regular season to punch his postseason ticket. With Chastain’s track record, it might be bold to take van Gisbergen, but I’ll do it.

MY LINEUP: Shane van Gisbergen, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain

GARAGE: Ty Gibbs

36 for 36

With the nature of stage breaks at road courses, teams that are contending for the win will forgo chasing stage points and hope to find Victory Lane. No driver has ever tallied more than 50 points at COTA. Because of that, I’d refrain from taking one of the weekly frontrunners, knowing you can get more from them throughout the season. That turns me to someone like Zane Smith, who has been fast at a number of places in limited Cup experience, but is also a multi-time winner in the Truck Series at COTA.