Racing Insights: Byron, Blaney look to halt Bell’s possible trifecta

Projections have been updated after practice and qualifying on Saturday.

Christopher Bell and the No. 20 crew are intent on winning every weekend, and the next set of races lines up nicely for them to do that. Bell enters as the defending race winner, with Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway next on the docket (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Bell finished top five in both Phoenix races last year and scored 99 points between the two performances — 22 more than any other driver. It also doesn’t hurt that the last time the Cup Series was in Phoenix, he led 143 laps, which was a race-high in the season finale event.

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However, while Bell tries to win his third consecutive NASCAR Cup Series race, other top-performing drivers should give Bell a run for his money and could prevent his three-peat from happening.

William Byron and Ryan Blaney — who sit 1-2, respectively, in the driver standings — are projected to make it a tight battle against Bell at Phoenix. These two have not just been consistent to start the year, but have been exceptional at Phoenix in the Next Gen era.

Looking at Byron first: Even though he sits as a projected third, the No. 24 team has turned in top-six efforts in four of the last five events at Phoenix, including a win in March 2023. He’s also off to an incredible start in 2025, with the second-best average running position (8.8) and tied for the second-best average finish with Blaney (10.0). Not only that, but Byron has an active streak of 17 straight stages with a top 10 in the desert, making a good case to not only retain the points lead after Sunday but possibly keep it at two winners through four races.

Blaney has also been superior out west. His worst finish over the last seven Phoenix races is fifth, which was in this race last year. Over that span, Blaney has netted two fourth-place finishes and four runner-ups. While he’s yet to win at the Arizona facility, he does have five stage wins and 266 laps led there in the Next Gen car.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

BUBBA WALLACE: Another driver off to a solid start in 2025, Wallace has scored the most stage points this season if you include his Duel win (41 points). He’s recorded two top 10s in the last three Phoenix races, including a seventh-place effort last fall.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin has had a slow start to the season, but Phoenix is a great track for him to turn things around. Last spring, he quickly got out front and led 68 laps to finish 11th. He also has two eighth-place finishes at Phoenix in the Next Gen car.

CHASE BRISCOE: You may notice a trend here, and that’s because Toyota led all but 14 laps in this race last year, and there’s a good chance we see similar dominance this Sunday, especially from Joe Gibbs Racing. Since Briscoe’s first Cup win came at Phoenix in 2022, he’s gone on to add three more top-10 finishes at the track.

MICHAEL MCDOWELL: McDowell’s 11.7 average finish currently ranks as the best in the Cup garage, and he’s done it without a top-10 finish. That should change Sunday as McDowell has two top 10s at his home track in the last three visits there.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE SHRINERS CHILDREN’s 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on raceday with practice and qualifying factored in.