Fantasy Fastlane: Three-peat for Christopher Bell?

It’s been a bumpy beginning to the 2025 fantasy season for yours truly, but Phoenix Raceway provides an opportunity to right the ship. Christopher Bell dominated the second half of the spring Phoenix race last year, while Team Penske has excelled in the desert for several years. Toyota led 298 of 312 laps during the 2024 spring race, with five of its drivers leading at least 50 laps. Given this is the first race outside a superspeedway or road course in 2025, we should have a better gauge of the true players next week.
 
New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

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MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 5-1

I dropped Bell from my COTA lineup and that proved to be a major flub, as his late-race charge earned him consecutive triumphs for the second time in his career. With two victories in the first three races of 2025, Bell is poised to have a breakout season -- the most wins he has in a single season is three (2022 and 2024), and he's on pace to trump that. In addition to winning the spring Phoenix race last year, he led a race-high 143 laps in the championship race before dropping to fifth in the finishing order.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 11-2

If you run toward the front long enough, eventually a victory will come. That must be Blaney's mindset at Phoenix, as he's chalked up nine straight top-10 finishes in the desert, with four of his last five finishes all being runner-up. This is Blaney's most consistent track on the circuit, so take advantage of that this weekend.

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 22-1

For the longest time, Buescher found Phoenix's 1-mile layout difficult to tame. But all four of his top-10 finishes at the track have come in the last six races, including a runner-up result in the spring race last year. Buescher rides a streak of three straight top 10s at Phoenix into this weekend. 

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 11-1

Recent races at Phoenix haven't treated Hamlin fairly, though he tied Tyler Reddick for the most laps led here last spring (68). The future Hall of Famer has a pair of victories with 16 top-five finishes in 39 Phoenix starts with an average finish of 10.8. With three below-average races to start 2025, Hamlin needs to kick-start his season soon. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 13-1

While the finishes might not reflect the overall performance, the James Small-led No. 19 team has run well at Phoenix in the last handful of years, leading 55-plus laps in three of the last eight races. Add in the fact that Briscoe has four top 10s in eight starts highlighted by a 2022 victory, it's a recipe for success this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 15-1

The Chastain of old showed up at COTA last weekend, making a divebomb entering Turn 1 on Lap 1, resulting in multiple cars receiving damage. Of note, Chase Elliott and the No. 9 team weren't pleased with Chastain's tactics. Chastain had the most success of his career when he had an edge, not caring about what other drivers thought of him. In six Phoenix starts with Trackhouse, he has four top-10 finishes, including a dominant victory in the 2023 championship race, becoming the only driver in playoff history to win the final race of the season not being part of the Championship 4.

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 45-1

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree here. Chastain is Hocevar's mentor, who himself has been in the spotlight to begin 2025. There's no debating how much speed the sophomore driver has, as he's elevated Spire and the No. 77 team. He has top-20 finishes in all three Phoenix starts. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 40-1

Bowman quietly sits seventh in the standings, and once again is having a strong start to a new season. Unfortunately for the Arizona native, he returns to his home track this weekend where the numbers are jarring. Since joining HMS full time in 2018, Bowman has a single top-10 finish in 14 Phoenix races, placing ninth in the 2023 spring race. Bowman's hot start might be put on hold until Las Vegas next week.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 16-1

The KFB from yesteryear showed up at COTA last weekend, wheeling the No. 8 car to a race-high 42 laps led and top-five finish. But now comes Phoenix, a venue where Busch has three straight finishes outside the top 20 with RCR. It's these flat tracks that RCR needs to improve upon the most, so we'll see if they gained on the field over the offseason.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 60-1

Preece prides himself on being a short-track racer, and while it depends on what you consider a short track, Phoenix has similar tendencies. The good news: RFK put both of its entries inside the top five in this race last year. The bad news: Preece doesn't have a top 10 in 11 Phoenix starts and has an average finish of 25.5.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Ryan Blaney

If history tells us anything, it's to never count out Logano. It's not a coincidence, however, that his last two Phoenix victories have come while having three weeks to prepare on one car for the championship. Meanwhile, Blaney is constantly in the mix and has yet to experience Victory Lane. The No. 12 car is the pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott

Don't expect any retaliation from Elliott this weekend, as he’s among the cleanest drivers in the Cup Series (granted, he was suspended for right-hooking Hamlin in 2023). Hendrick hasn’t had the greatest results in recent years at Phoenix, with Elliott having finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five Phoenix starts. Chastain might have too much speed for Elliott to keep up with this weekend, so let's roll with the No. 1 car. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Larson

Before the beginning of the season, Bell was my championship pick and boy is that looking good right now or what. That could be a slight overreaction, but with the wildness of the opening three races, for any driver to escape with two victories is fulfilling. Bell is stout on flat tracks, while it’s one of Larson's greatest weaknesses. Phoenix is an exception, as he has 10 top 10s in his last 12 starts. Bell has the hot hand, so he's my pick to win this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Denny Hamlin

With consecutive top 10s, there have been flashes of the feared Busch from not long ago. Hamlin survived the savagery first three races with a top 10 at Atlanta and sits 17th in points. Toyota has the upper hand at Phoenix, as it historically excels at flatter tracks. Can’t imagine much has changed to hinder its performance this weekend, so pick Hamlin. 

MY LINEUP: Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain

GARAGE: Chase Briscoe

36 for 36

Had I just picked one of the other two Front Row Motorsports entries at COTA, I'd be in a much better place than having gone with Zane Smith, who was an innocent bystander in multiple incidents. I'll take another Front Row car this weekend with Noah Gragson. In two races last season at Phoenix with Stewart-Haas Racing, he had a pair of 12th-place finishes.