NASCAR is shaking up the summer stretch with a twist: Thirty-two drivers, five tracks, one bracket — and $1 million on the line. The new In-Season Challenge adds a layer to an already unpredictable portion of the Cup Series schedule.
Spanning everything from drafting duels at Atlanta to the tight turns of Chicago and Sonoma and capped off by tests at Dover and Indianapolis, some tracks will play right into a driver’s strengths, but others, not so much. Who climbs the bracket, and who gets bumped? That’s where things get interesting, and it all kicks off Saturday at 7 p.m. ET (TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: How In-Season Challenge works | Hub page with bracket
EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway)
Who does it favor?
Team Penske knows how to rise to the occasion in the playoffs, which gives good reason to think it’ll be buttoned up here for the In-Season Challenge. Joey Logano, defending champ and last year’s fall Atlanta winner, owns two wins at the Peach State track. Ryan Blaney may not have a win at the track in the Next Gen car, but his last seven races in Georgia have produced an average start of 3.1 and average finish of 6.7 — both marks that lead active full-time drivers. Add in Austin Cindric’s 14.3 average finish and 193 laps led over that same span, and all three drivers are threats to win.
Two more drivers to consider are Dawsonville, Georgia, native Chase Elliott and last year’s spring winner, Daniel Suárez. In Elliott’s case, he won at his home track in 2022, and his top-20 consistency this year will be hard to beat in head-to-head competition. As for Suárez, he may have crashed out of this season’s earlier tilt in Atlanta, but he finished first or second in the three previous races.
Who does it hinder?
Several big names could be ousted in the first round. Denny Hamlin, the In-Season Challenge No. 1 seed, has an average finish south of 18th in the last seven Atlanta races. Brad Keselowski is another drafting track master who could find trouble, with only two top 10s in the last seven Atlanta races.
One of the most intriguing matchups is Kyle Larson vs. Tyler Reddick. While both drivers have scored at least one top five at this track in their careers and have been heavyweights in the Next Gen car, each has an average finish just outside the top 20 at this track since 2022. One of them will advance, but it’s almost a toss-up on who it could be.
Chicago Street Course
Who does it favor?
Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs and Kyle Busch have navigated the tight 2.2-mile confines and weather to earn top 10s in both years around Grant Park. Gibbs is the only one out of the trio to lead laps (18 total), but McDowell is the only driver of the group to qualify in the top 10 each time. As for Busch, the No. 8 crew struck luck in terms of when it pitted and how the cautions fell in both races, allowing for a recovery from qualifying efforts of 18th and 19th. It may be a trying season, but don’t overlook Rowdy’s veteran experience.
Two more drivers that stick out are William Byron and Austin Cindric; in both races, they each started outside of the top 20 and wheeled top-15 finishes. Byron has two road-course wins in the Next Gen era, while Cindric made a name for himself as a road-course ringer before his NASCAR debut.
Who does it hinder?
Christopher Bell has led the most laps around the 12-turn circuit (51), but he has an average finish of 27.5. The shortened race in 2023 allowed cars that pitted earlier to jump the leaders after Bell swept the stages. He again looked to be on the way to victory in the Windy City last year, until he made contact with his teammate while charging back up the field after pitting late. He could be in the mix for the win, but it’s worth taking into account his bad luck.
It is also worth pointing out that fellow road-course winners AJ Allmendinger, Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson have average finishes of 21.5 or worse in this event. Larson has a fourth-place finish from 2023, but his early crash last year is weighing him down. Allmendinger and Chastain have struggled, with neither driver cracking the top 15 in either race.
Sonoma Raceway
Who does it favor?
Here’s a track that favors Allmendinger, Chastain and Larson very well as each has four career top 10s at the track. (Plus, Larson is the defending winner.) However, in the Next Gen era, Chris Buescher has an average finish of third at Sonoma as he is the only driver to net top fives in all three races at the track. McDowell, Elliott and Chastain have top 10s in each of those events, too, but Buescher has scored the most points at 124 and has done it all with an average start of 12th in that span.
Who does it hinder?
In the opposite swing of things, Reddick has an average start of third in the last three Sonoma races but has two finishes outside the top 30. He finally cracked the top 10 for the first time at Sonoma last year (with an eighth-place finish), but his history at the track carries warning signs.
Other notable names that could find themselves in trouble are Chase Briscoe, Hamlin, and Bubba Wallace. Hamlin has the best shot to turn things around there, given he won the pole and led 33 laps in 2023 and has the most Sonoma experience of this group, but none of these drivers has scored a top-10 finish at the circuit since 2021.
Dover Motor Speedway
Who does it favor?
The Monster Mile has been a great track for Hendrick Motorsports and Larson and Elliott, in particular; both drivers have won there and have 10 or more top 10s. Alex Bowman also has a Dover win and six top 10s in the last seven races at the track, with five of those being top fives. Byron hasn’t won there yet but has led 257 laps and owns three top fives.
As for non-Hendrick drivers, Blaney and Hamlin also stand out at this track, with the latter of the two being the defending winner and Blaney scoring two 10s in the last two Dover races. Busch has won the previous two poles here and led 162 laps en route to scoring two top 10s in the last three Dover races.
Who does it hinder?
A few stout vets have struggled at Dover recently. Logano has yet to lead a lap in the Next Gen car around this track and finish better than 16th in the last three races. Meanwhile, Keselowski has a best finish of eighth over that span, but it’s sandwiched by runs of 20th and 30th. Similarly, Allmendinger’s last three races at Dover have resulted in an average finish of 21.3.
It’s also worth mentioning that if McDowell can find himself on a “Cinderella run” after two road courses that play to his strength, the clock may strike midnight at Dover. In 24 starts, his best finish at the Monster Mile is 17th, and that came in 2022 with Front Row Motorsports.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Who does it favor?
Last year’s running of the Brickyard 400 was the first after a four-year break, meaning it’s tough to gauge who truly excels here. Plus, only 16 of the active full-time drivers have five or more starts on the 2.5-mile oval. Going off of last year’s race, defending winner Larson is surely one to be a factor. Same for Reddick, who was last year’s pole winner and runner-up finisher.
Three more drivers to consider are Blaney, Elliott and Wallace. That trio was also in the mix upfront last year as Elliott and Wallace each led laps, and Blaney finished third. Each of them has at least scored two top 10s in the last three 400-milers at Indy; Wallace owns two top fives and a ninth-place finish over that span.
Who does it hinder?
On the flip side, Hamlin has been involved in wrecks in two of the last three races. And three drivers with four or more starts and yet to score top 10s at Indy are Bowman, Chastain and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.