Fantasy Fastlane: Ford looks to continue the hot hand at Michigan

Until Tyler Reddick’s triumph last summer at Michigan International Speedway, Ford had a throttle hold over the 2-mile oval, winning the previous nine races in the Blue Oval’s backyard. Chevrolet hasn’t won at the venue since 2017, when Kyle Larson rattled off three straight wins for Chip Ganassi Racing. Ford has momentum entering the weekend, as Ryan Blaney cruised to victory last weekend at Nashville Superspeedway.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 7-1

With Blaney’s Nashville victory, Penske has all four of its cars, including the Wood Brothers No. 21 machine, locked into the postseason through 14 races. The juggernaut didn’t have a single Cup victory last year until the 15th race of the season. Blaney won here in 2021, and he has seven top-10 finishes in the last 10 races. Except for the Coca-Cola 600, the No. 12 team has thrived at intermediates this season, so there’s no reason to think he won’t be strong again on Sunday.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

The No. 5 team rebounded to a respectable showing at Nashville after an abysmal opening half of the race. Still thanking my lucky stars that I didn’t burn another use on the No. 5 car. That leaves Michigan open, where his three victories are tied for his most at a single track (Bristol, Las Vegas and Kansas). The 2021 Cup champion led 41 laps early in last year’s race before being involved in a multi-car incident on a restart. Jeff Gordon was the last HMS driver to visit Victory Lane at MIS, way back in 2014.

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Before winning here in 2023, Michigan was a tough track for Buescher. Even last year with a battered car from the restart incident that Larson was involved in, the No. 17 team rebounded to finish sixth. Buescher has only one top-10 finish in the last six races this season but jumped over the playoff bubble last weekend with a 14th-place effort.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

With only four uses left of Hamlin in the regular season, I’m contemplating whether I’ll start the No. 11 car this weekend. Knowing there are three upcoming road courses and a pair of superspeedways eases the mind a little. The No. 11 team has seven consecutive top-10 finishes at Michigan, the longest active streak. Before last year’s ninth-place effort, he had four straight top fives.

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

It’s no longer a surprise when the sophomore competitor competes at the front of the field. Hocevar has been in the mix for the win in consecutive weeks, tying the best finish of his career last weekend at Nashville. He has one top 10 in as many starts at his home track, and believes this track suits him more than Nashville. He could be the next first-time winner.

SLEEPER PICK:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 28-1

Given Keselowski ranks 32nd in the regular-season championship standings, he’s entered sleeper territory. The 2012 Cup champion has had close defeats at his home race track with three runner-up finishes. RFK is a team to watch this weekend, putting all four of its entries at MIS over the last two races inside the top six.

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota

Odds: 55-1

Jones was a linchpin of the top 10 for all 400 miles last weekend at Nashville en route to a seventh-place finish. According to Racing Insights, his average running position of 9.4 was his best in nearly two years (Texas, 2023). Jones has two top-10 finishes in the three Next Gen races at Michigan. Ironically, all sleepers listed for this weekend hail from Michigan.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

Since last winning at Michigan in 2015, JGR has combined to win 96 races at 25 different tracks. Some of its drivers have been in contention like Hamlin and Ty Gibbs, and a blast from the past with Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. One name not on that list is Bell. Michigan is the only oval on the schedule that he’s yet to reach the top 10 (six starts). The number to watch is 13, as half of those starts have ended in 13th position.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

When reviewing Chastain’s Michigan stats, it needs to be assessed on a curve, with nearly half of his starts coming from underfunded teams. But in four starts, split between CGR and Trackhouse, he has three finishes of 24th or worse, despite leading laps in three of those events.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

If it can go wrong, it has gone wrong over the last two months for Bowman, who has an average finish of 26.4 in the last eight races. Ultimately, he’s dropped to 14th on the playoff grid, with a 45-point buffer. Historically, it isn’t much better at Michigan, with an average finish of 24.3 in 15 starts. His best finish is just ninth place in 2022.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Christopher Bell

With the information above, this is a fairly simple matchup this weekend. You can never underestimate the strength of the No. 20 team, but it’s safe to say that Michigan is Bell’s kryptonite. His average finish of 19.5 is his second worst of any oval track, trailing only Talladega (20.9). Meanwhile, Blaney, who hasn’t spent a ton of time out front at Michigan (74 laps led), has top 10s in half of his 16 starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Bubba Wallace

This is the toughest pick of the week. Buescher has figured out how to finish well at Michigan in recent seasons, while Wallace only has a pair of top 10s in 11 starts and was in position to win the opening stage last year until the No. 23 car pitted during a caution and rallied to fourth. Both drivers are limping into Michigan, but I’ll give the slight nod to Buescher as RFK has been a threat here the last two seasons. Granted, 23XI Racing is the defending winner of the event with Tyler Reddick.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Carson Hocevar

It’s never too late to jump on board the Hocevar train. The No. 77 team had a car capable of winning the last two races, and Michigan is a place where Hocevar scored a top 10 as a rookie. The mystery of Gibbs’ 2025 season continues, as he’s dropped to 27th in the regular season standings. He finished third at Michigan last year, but this isn’t the same No. 54 team as 2024.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Daniel Suárez vs. Brad Keselowski

Suárez jumped two positions in points last weekend, moving up to 28th. The depth of the Cup Series is on full display when two playoff cars from last season rank 28th and 32nd in points, respectively, after the midway point of the regular season. Like Keselowski, the No. 99 team has top 10s in its last two Michigan starts, but the No. 6 Ford has more raw speed weekly, and it just needs to limit its mistakes. Keselowski gets it done here.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Joey Logano

36 for 36: A late change last weekend at Nashville netted just 14 points with Brad Keselowski. Knock on wood, that was my first poor result in the last month. I’m riding with Erik Jones, who has top 10s in two of the last three Michigan races. The No. 43 team continues to trend upward in 2025, with a trio of top 15s in the last four races.