Following his win at Pocono Raceway, Chase Briscoe became the 11th driver to earn a provisional spot in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
This weekend’s trends favor a 12th driver adding his name to the playoff grid when the Cup Series visits EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) for an intense showdown on the 1.54-mile drafting-style track under the lights Saturday (7 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Knowing how the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing can shake things up, the playoff outlook for Chris Buescher (plus-38), Bubba Wallace (plus-29) and Alex Bowman (plus-20) could either swing strongly in their favor or in the wrong direction, especially with the threat of the “Big One” looming.
Let’s take a closer look at the playoff bubble entering Atlanta and see which drivers could face more pressure as we get deeper into the summer stretch if a 12th different winner emerges from the Peach State.
RELATED: Atlanta schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Drivers in a great spot for Atlanta]
Dawsonville, Georgia native Chase Elliott returns to his home track 160 points above the elimination line and hopes to get his first win of the 2025 Cup Series season in what’s been a remarkably strong and consistent year for the Hendrick Motorsports driver.
After 17 races, Elliott’s streak of finishing every race in the top 20 continues and has resulted in a 97.29% playoff probability. In six starts at Atlanta since the track’s reconfiguration, Elliott has three top 10s, including a victory in the 2022 Atlanta summer race.
With three wins at drafting-style tracks on his resume, look for the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet to continue building a comfortable cushion above the elimination line with another top 20 or end Saturday night in Victory Lane at home.
YELLOW FLAG [Drivers on the fringe for Atlanta]
After issues with brake rotors doomed all three 23XI Racing Toyotas last weekend at Pocono, the organization needs a big bounce-back performance in Georgia. 23XI drivers Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace currently sit 13th and 15th in the playoff standings, respectively.
Reddick’s playoff probability dropped from 98.68% to 95.35% after losing time in the garage at Pocono to work on the brakes, which resulted in a 32nd-place finish at the “Tricky Triangle.” Despite maintaining a high playoff probability entering Atlanta, there is reason to be concerned about the No. 45 team.
Although Reddick maintains a 107-point advantage above the elimination line, things have not gone well lately, as he has finished 13th or worse in eight of the last nine Cup Series races. In seven starts at the reconfigured Atlanta, Reddick only has two top 10s.
His 23XI teammate, Wallace, had his playoff probability plummet from 77.70% to 60.83% following his sixth DNF of the year at Pocono, the most of any driver this season.
In the last seven races, Wallace has finished 33rd or worse four times, so Atlanta comes at the perfect time for a driver looking for a shot in the arm. Wallace is good at drafting-style tracks, so Saturday night could lead to his playoff probability trending in the right direction to end this stretch of bad luck. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has two top 10s at Atlanta in the last three races.
Both 23XI drivers still have time to turn things around, but a new winner would certainly complicate things.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Atlanta
RED FLAG [Drivers I’m concerned about heading to Atlanta]
With nine races to go until the postseason, Bowman is on the bubble, 20 points above the elimination line. In the last two races, Bowman has clicked off a fourth-place finish in Mexico City followed by an 11th-place effort at Pocono.
Those two results were sorely needed by the No. 48 team, which has finished 27th or worse in seven of the last 11 races. The results in the last two races might be a sign of building momentum at the right time to avoid a pressure-packed end to the regular season for the Hendrick Motorsports driver.
Bowman’s playoff probability dropped from 38.97% to 34.49% after Briscoe’s Pocono win. In the last 11 races on drafting-style tracks, the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has six top-10 finishes. Based on those numbers, his odds of getting a top 10 in Georgia on Saturday night are nearly equivalent to flipping a coin.
For his playoff sake, he needs to stay out of trouble and get a good result. However, a good result may not matter if we get a new winner currently below the elimination line that pushes Bowman below it.
Another driver who could be in trouble is Kyle Busch. Although Richard Childress Racing cars usually perform well on drafting-style tracks, Busch comes to Georgia with a single top 10 in the last nine races.
Busch’s playoff probability is 19.09% entering Atlanta, so this weekend and the regular-season finale at Daytona might be his best opportunities to clinch a postseason berth. Sitting 63 points below the elimination line is not a position for a driver looking to avoid missing the playoffs in back-to-back years.
If there is any hope on the horizon for the No. 8 team, Busch has five consecutive top 10s at Atlanta as the two-time Cup Series champion looks to snap a career-long 74-race winless streak.