Racing Insights: All eyes on Kyle Larson this weekend at Dover

Kyle Larson will participate in this year’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. There’s no doubt about that.

With three wins in 2025, the Hendrick Motorsports driver is tied for most victories in the field with Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Shane van Gisbergen. However, this summer has been rough for Larson’s standards and he hasn’t found race-winning pace since his dominant Kansas win in May.

Will Larson get back to his winning ways Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) or will the No. 5’s July slide extend? Let’s look at who Racing Insights projects to win at the “Monster Mile” with a detailed look into the numbers.

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Defending Dover winner Denny Hamlin is projected to make it two in a row in Delaware this weekend. It should come as no surprise as the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has outclassed the field on concrete tracks recently. At Dover, he has two wins, four top fives and an average finish of 8.43 in the last seven races. He also ranks first in speed and third in restarts at the track, according to NASCAR Insights.

Larson comes second on the results prediction sheet, also just like last year, as Hamlin fended off the late surge from the California native. Larson will take another runner-up result this weekend as he’s only placed in the top five once in the last eight races (Michigan). Within the eight-race span, Larson has only scored three top 10s and has only led a combined 37 laps — 34 in the Coca-Cola 600 and three at Sonoma.

It’s unfamiliar territory for Larson since joining Hendrick in 2021, but this drought should end Sunday. Larson’s 938 laps led at Dover are the third most he’s led at a track on the circuit in his career and he’s finished third or better at the 1-mile oval in four of the last six events.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

ROSS CHASTAIN: Just behind the pair of Hamlin and Larson at Dover is Chastain. The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver has been lights out at the track in the Next Gen car. He finished third and second in 2022 and 2023, respectively, but finished 12th last year to see his average finish in the last three Dover races dip to a not-too-shabby 5.7.

CHASE ELLIOTT: Elliott should continue his impressive top-20 streak this weekend. He won the 2022 edition at Dover and followed up with results of 11th and fifth the last two years. The 2020 series titleholder sits just 14 points behind his Hendrick teammate William Byron for the regular season points lead and could be in line to jump the No. 24 on Sunday.

ALEX BOWMAN: Don’t forget about the No. 48. Bowman hasn’t finished worse than eighth in his last four Dover starts and won the 2021 event. He enters the weekend 32 points above the playoff cutline and will need to turn in a fifth straight top-10 performance at Dover to build more breathing room.

COLE CUSTER: The No. 41 Haas Factory Team driver may not be in line to win on Sunday, but his Cup numbers at Dover have been mighty impressive. He’s finished no worse than 15th in four starts and racked up top 10s in the two 2020 events. A similar result this weekend would be a huge shot in the arm for Custer amid a difficult 2025 campaign.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE AUTOTRADER ECHOPARK AUTOMOTIVE 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.