Fantasy Fastlane: Heavy-handed on Hendrick entering Dover

Dover Motor Speedway has been dominated by the sport’s biggest teams in recent years. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have combined to win 14 of the last 19 races at the “Monster Mile,” including eight of the last nine events. Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman are the only Dover winners in the last 28 races who haven’t won a Cup Series title. To hoist a Miles the Monster trophy in Victory Lane at the end of a grueling 400 miles, teams need to excel at an elite level.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

RELATED: How to watch NASCAR on TNT Sports | In-Season Challenge hub

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

With the regular season dwindling down, I have a handful of uses remaining for Larson. Man, I wish I could have back some of the races earlier in the season, when the No. 5 team was firing on all eight cylinders. Over the last eight races, Larson has three top-10 finishes and his average finishing position in that span (19.8) is 10 positions worse than the first 12 events of 2025 (9.8). Dover can be a reset for Larson, as he won here in 2019 with Chip Ganassi Racing and has five finishes of sixth or better in his last six starts.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Similar to Elliott’s 2025 season, he is the epitome of consistency at Dover. In 14 starts, the 2020 champion has 10 top-five finishes, including a pair of victories. That’s the most top fives he has at a single venue. His 9.5 average finish is his best at any active oval where he’s had multiple starts. That average finish has improved to 5.67 in the Next Gen era, tied for the best in the series of active drivers (Ross Chastain).

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

During the first half of Hamlin’s career, Dover gave him some of the greatest struggles of any track on the circuit. Since 2020, however, Hamlin is the only repeat winner in “The First State,” including a dominant performance last spring. Ten of Hamlin’s 16 career top 10s at Dover (34 starts) have come in the last 14 races.

MUST START:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

The No. 48 Chevrolet is synonymous with Dover, as Jimmie Johnson motored to a track record 11 victories. Bowman picked up where Johnson left off, with five top-five finishes in the last seven races, including a 2021 triumph. That’s his most of any track.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Dover will always have a special place in Chastain’s heart as the site of his Cup debut in 2017 with Premium Motorsports. That feels like a lifetime ago, and his Dover stats are skewed with the first six attempts coming with underfunded teams. He has a pair of podium finishes in the Next Gen era with Trackhouse.

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

In a bit of an upset, Busch won the pole for last year’s Dover race and led 34 laps before finishing fourth. Most of his Dover damage was done with JGR, but he leads active drivers in wins (three), top fives (14), top 10s (22) and laps led (1,375). With consecutive top 10s for the first time since March, the No. 8 team enters Dover with some semblance of momentum.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

Hyak Motorsports, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 90-1

Stenhouse’s love for concrete race tracks is typically on display at Bristol Motor Speedway. However, he flies under the radar at Dover, having only four top-10 finishes in 21 starts. Consider this, though, the No. 47 team earned stage points in both stages last year at Dover and finished runner-up to Elliott in 2022. Stenhouse has shined at Dover in the Next Gen era ranking in the top 10 in speed (ninth), long-run speed (seventh) and restarts (fourth), according to Racing Insights.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Buescher has been good but not great at Dover in the Next Gen car. Of all the drivers in the field, I have the fewest number of starts remaining with him at two for the regular season. He scored his lone Cup pole here in 2022, but a best finish of eighth doesn’t pop off the page. The No. 17 team’s 10.5 average starting spot in 2025 leads the Cup Series.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Don’t expect Logano to become the second driver to win in their 600th Cup start (Richard Petty) this weekend. As Logano explained to me last month, Dover has been “ugly” for Penske in the Next Gen era, though Ryan Blaney has consecutive top 10s. His best Next Gen effort at the “Monster Mile” is 16th. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 65-1

Speed and finishing races have been separate stories for Wallace at Dover. He has yet to post a top 10 in 10 attempts but has three finishes of 16th or better in the last four races. The No. 23 team is spiraling, with finishes of 22nd or worse in four straight races entering Dover.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

John Hunter Nemechek vs. Ty Dillon

If you had Nemechek and Dillon representing the left-side of the bracket in the In-Season Challenge, you might want to buy a lottery ticket. Two Cinderellas have marched to the Final Four, with one being assured to have a chance at $1 million next weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Dillon is embracing the underdog role while Legacy Motor Club is on the verge of taking its next step and Nemechek is amid a career year. Give me JHN advancing to the finals.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott

Two heavyweights here who could easily get to Victory Lane this weekend. Elliott is on a heater in 2025 with four top-five finishes across the last five races. The odds of him adding to that are high this weekend. It’s been feast or famine for Hamlin of late, with four top fives and six finishes of 16th or worse in the last 10 races. I’ll give the slight advantage to Elliott at Dover.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ross Chastain

Two sleepers who can contend for the victory if all goes their way at Dover. While Busch has two straight top 10s, the No. 8 team has been incredibly inconsistent this year, and you can’t bank on Busch having an elite day. Decent finishes for Chastain have been hard to come by over the last month, but I’ll give him the nod at Dover with two top fives during the Next Gen era.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Ty Gibbs

Representing the right side of the bracket are a pair of Toyota quasi-teammates. This is more even than one might think. Gibbs has been quick each time he’s gone to Dover, but a pit-road miscue in 2023 had him pit an extra time to get the fuel tank full. Meanwhile, Reddick has a best finish of seventh in six Dover tries. The No. 45 team is heating up at the right time of year, however, with three consecutive top 10s. Reddick gets through to the finals.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain

GARAGE: Christopher Bell. 

36 for 36: Ugh, a last-minute swap to AJ Allmendinger last weekend didn’t pay off as the No. 16 team had a tough day at the office despite blistering the field on five-lap averages in practice. Feels like a missed opportunity for both Allmendinger and myself. We’re going really big this weekend, knocking Chase Elliott off the board. I’m riding the HMS train this weekend, believing one of their cars will end up in Victory Lane. The numbers don’t lie; this is Elliott’s best oval.