Six races remain until the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs begin, and the picture around the cutline is looking clearer.
Four spots are still up for grabs, but Ryan Preece appears to be the only driver within reasonable striking distance as he sits just three points back of Bubba Wallace after a pair of road courses. Kyle Busch scraped together a top 10 at Sonoma despite spinning last weekend in Wine Country and now he sits just 37 points below the cutline.
This Sunday, NASCAR returns to its more traditional tracks on the circuit with a trek to Dover Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). With the latest postseason projections provided by Racing Insights, let’s take a look at who is in a good spot entering the “Monster Mile” and whose playoff hopes could dip.
RELATED: Dover schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Who’s in a great spot for Dover]
Sticking with Preece (37.18% playoff probability) to continue his climb amid a great summer stretch. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th dating back to Michigan and upcoming tracks like Dover, Iowa and Richmond should play into the short-track ace’s favor, which is why he slots into the playoff predictor as the last man in over Wallace. Preece has yet to score a top 10 in eight Dover starts at the Cup level, but his numbers at a different concrete track (Bristol) are good enough to make the case that the No. 60 RFK Ford will be a factor this weekend.
Most eyes this weekend will be on Kyle Larson to see if he can snap out of a funk he’s been in since a disastrous Memorial Day weekend “Double,” but Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman (62.19% playoff probability) shouldn’t be overlooked at Dover. Bowman has placed eighth or better in three of the last five races and Dover has been one of his best tracks lately. Highlighted by a 2021 win, Bowman has placed inside the top five in five of the last seven races at the “Monster Mile.”
YELLOW FLAG [Who’s on the fringe for Dover]
Tyler Reddick (99.07% playoff probability) is an interesting case here. A whopping 149-point cushion to the cutline should have the No. 45 23XI Racing team feeling good about their playoff hopes, but it’s the element of surprise from someone winning outside the picture or a couple slip-ups that could put Reddick in some serious trouble. His Dover numbers aren’t the worst, but Reddick finished just 11th in last year’s event. Now, he enters this weekend with three consecutive top 10s. Those results could be a deciding factor to get Reddick into the postseason on points if he ends up needing mulligans at tracks like Iowa, Watkins Glen or Daytona.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Dover
RED FLAG [Who I’m concerned about heading to Dover]
I just don’t think there’s anyone you can slot in here other than Bubba Wallace until he turns the corner (no pun intended). Top 10s at Nashville and Michigan appeared to be the lift Wallace needed to start a summer surge, but it’s all gone downhill since his No. 23 Toyota didn’t fire for qualifying at Pocono. His best finish in the last four races was 22nd at Atlanta, where he was involved in two separate incidents. He then finished 28th at Chicago after a back-and-forth with Bowman in the closing laps led to the No. 23 being spun. Wallace was able to collect a chunk of stage points at Sonoma to maintain his slim gap above the cutline, but he still finished 26th.
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Dover is another proving ground for Wallace. He doesn’t own a top 10 in 10 starts at the concrete oval and crashed out in the final stage of last year’s race. If it’s not a top 10 this weekend, Wallace needs to stay with Preece and, at the very least, bring the No. 23 to the checkered flag Sunday without a scratch.