Racing Insights: Regular Season Championship edge up for grabs at Iowa

Editor’s Note: Sunday’s projected finish has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

With just four races remaining in the regular season, Iowa Speedway takes center stage in a NASCAR Cup Series campaign marked by increasingly tense battles and shifting fortunes (3:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

The top four drivers chasing a hotly contested Regular Season Championship — the Hendrick Motorsports trio of Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson, alongside Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin — are separated by just 20 points, the slimmest margin at this stage since 2012. The playoff elimination line, currently a 42-point buffer between RFK Racing teammates Chris Buescher (16th) and Ryan Preece (17th), is the widest it’s been all year, offering both a minor cushion to one perennial playoff contender and a steep climb for his compatriot attempting to make his first postseason.

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Yet Iowa is no place to settle in for either — or anybody else without a solid playoff foundation, for that matter.

In the Next Gen era, every season has featured a surprise, win-and-in driver from below the elimination line in the closing month, making no one without a victory truly safe. Last year, three drivers above the elimination line at this point or later in the regular season ended up missing the playoffs (Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace).

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That said, the shocker may not come this weekend as Racing Insights’ predictive metrics model has the projected Iowa Corn 350 results sending early-season stalwart Christopher Bell back to Victory Lane for the first time since his raucous, three-race win streak in the spring. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a tremendous shot to regain momentum before the playoffs spark up, boasting nine top 10s in his last 11 short-track starts, including a gritty fourth from the back of the field in a backup car at Iowa last year.

Bell’s streak of dominance — and Hamlin’s that followed soon after — seemed to indicate we were set for a year of heavyweights dominating Victory Lane, but parity has since surfaced and redefined the season. Five of the last seven oval races have introduced a first-time winner, and each of the previous three short-track events showcased a different manufacturer claiming the win. Poise and experience matter, though, and the last six short-track winners have all been more than 30 years old, and six of the last nine times, the driver with the most laps led has gone on to win.

Hamlin, the tour’s short-track master, with 15 wins and five consecutive top fives on them, seeks redemption after a rare stumble here last season and will have a heightened motivation this weekend, with his penchant for wanting to check every conceivable box in his racing career. Byron aims to rediscover his form after an early-season surge and could add a sixth top 10 in his last nine short-track starts, while Kyle Busch — outside of the playoff picture at the moment but an all-time short-track standout — enters mired in one of the toughest stretches of his career: no top 10s in the past 11 short-track events and no laps led for 10 straight 2025 races, the longest drought ever for the two-time champ. (Following a wreck during practice, Busch will go to a backup car for Sunday’s race, making Iowa all the more challenging for the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing driver.)

Brad Keselowski, after a sluggish start by his championship standards, now carries six top 10s in his last 10 events — his only six top 10s of the year. Chase Briscoe’s rise in speed rating per NASCAR Insights — a plus-16 difference from the first half to the second half of the regular season, tops among the field — highlights him as a sleeper to add a second 2025 win. Teammate Ty Gibbs has found late rhythm as well, bagging three top 10s in his last four starts on his way to winning the $1 million In-Season Challenge prize.

Meanwhile, Josh Berry, nearly absent since a playoff-clinching win at Las Vegas earlier this year, returns to a scene of past power — a seventh-place finish and 32 laps led last year in a soon-to-be-folded ride at Stewart-Haas Racing — and could remind the field of his short-track prowess as he looks to build pre-playoffs mojo.

Strategically, Iowa’s fresh pavement and tire management promise a chess match in what will be just the second Cup Series race on the popular Midwest track. Teams able to adapt on pit road and control long green-flag runs will have the advantage — only once in the last 15 short-track races have there been 10-plus cautions, with recent races featuring extended green stretches.

The repaved corners, playoff permutations and walking-on-eggshells unpredictability that amplifies with each week ticking off the calendar will guarantee another dramatic, meaningful weekend in corn country. Expect tire calls, veteran savvy and late-race composure to weigh as heavily as raw speed on this seven-eighths-mile wildcard, and perhaps Bell to strike for victory No. 4.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRISTOPHER BELL: The analytics favorite and possibly the race’s top threat, Bell boasts two prior Xfinity Series wins at Iowa. He rallied from the rear for fourth here last year. After three straight Cup wins earlier in 2025, Bell is overdue for a regaining of momentum.

RYAN BLANEY: Last year’s Iowa winner, thanks to a bold two-tire strategy and 201 laps led, Blaney has found his short-track stride with three wins in his last nine such starts.

DENNY HAMLIN: The most consistent short-tracker in the field, with five consecutive top fives, 15 career short-track Cup wins (five in the Next Gen era) and a series-leading 104 short-track points in 2025. He’s seeking redemption after a rare Iowa misstep last year.

CHASE ELLIOTT: The current points leader with a 10.14 average finish (best in series), Elliott has completed all but one lap this season and secured eight top 10s in his last nine short-track races. He finished third at Iowa in 2024.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: After a slow start, Keselowski is back in form with six top 10s over his last 10 races, and has four such finishes in his last nine short-track events. His Iowa experience is deep, with three Xfinity wins and a 10th-place Cup finish here last year.

CHRIS BUESCHER: Right on the playoff bubble (16th in points), Buescher has 11 top 10s on the year but none in his last seven short-track events. He led laps at Iowa last year but was hampered by a cut tire. He also owns an Xfinity win at the track.

ROSS CHASTAIN: Despite a rocky recent stretch, Chastain is playoff-secure thanks to his Coca-Cola 600 win and looking for momentum where he can find it. He’s delivering on short tracks, with five consecutive top 10s on them and a double-duty weekend ahead. Last year at Iowa, he finished just outside the top 10.

KYLE LARSON: The Next Gen short-track laps led king, Larson sits third in points after a series-best 14 top 10s in 2025. He dominated early at Iowa last year (pole, stage win), but late issues stopped his charge for victory.

TYLER REDDICK: Aggressive and quick on short/intermediate ovals, Reddick is the most playoff-secure driver without a win. He finished 22nd at Iowa last season but could be a strategic contender if things line up late, but something has been missing from the No. 45 team in 2025. Perhaps the spark of seeing a teammate win the Brickyard 400 will turn things around.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE IOWA CORN 350

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.