Racing Insights: A thriller awaits under the lights at Richmond

Editor’s Note: Saturday’s projected finish has been updated after Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

Get ready for a Saturday showdown under the lights at the historic Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race is sure to have plenty of action with two weekends left before the grid of 16 title hopefuls is set.

If history holds, expect chaos in the closing laps. The last eight Richmond races have seen the driver leading the most laps come up short — but in 2025, that same stat has delivered a clean sweep of wins on short tracks. Add in the fact that the past three Richmond races have all had cautions in the final 10 laps, each setting up a pass for the win, and you’ve got the recipe for a finish that could rewrite the playoff picture.

RELATED: Richmond schedule | Cup Series standings

One thing we do know is Joe Gibbs Racing will likely set the pace. Racing Insights’ metric has Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell as top-three mainstays — and for good reason. With 10 wins in the last 18 Richmond races, JGR ranks among an elite few teams in the track’s history. Hamlin boasts six top-two finishes in his last eight Richmond starts. Bell is still seeking his first win at the 0.75-mile oval, but has finished outside the top 10 only twice in nine attempts. Combine that with JGR’s strong short-track form in 2025, and it’s clear they’re poised to control the night.

We also can’t forget about the man who leads the series in pole awards so far. Though Chase Briscoe’s career numbers at Richmond don’t jump off the page, there’s still something to be said about how the Hoosier has been running better with the No. 19 team at tracks he struggled at in the past. Not to mention, he’s the only driver to finish top 10 in every short-track race this year, and just a few weeks ago, he led 81 laps at Iowa.

With a Hendrick Motorsports trio of Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson predicted to finish inside the top five, all signs point to a heavyweight bout at the top. However, there are several candidates to consider joining the winner’s club if chaos does strike in the closing moments again.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

ALEX BOWMAN: Only three drivers have won in their 350th Cup Series start, and this former Richmond winner has a chance to make it four and lock all Hendrick teams in the playoffs. Bowman’s recent starts at the track may paint a different picture, but he has a 9.3 average finish over the last nine races this year — best among full-time drivers.

TY GIBBS: Similar to Bowman, Gibbs is the lone man at his organization without a win. He’s nabbed just one top-10 finish in five Richmond starts, but the equipment he’s in makes him a threat to break through. The third-year driver is also aiming to make history — no first-time winner has stepped into Victory Lane at Richmond since Kasey Kahne in 2005.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: RFK’s driver/co-owner has flirted with playoff shakeups the last few weeks, with six finishes of 11th or better in the last eight races. Richmond is a stronghold — two wins, 1,280 laps led, top 10s in half of his 30 starts and a solid 12.1 average finish there.

AUSTIN DILLON: Another driver who could turn the playoff grid on its head, Dillon enters as the defending winner and has seven top 10s at Richmond. The main thing with Dillon, though, is that three of his five Cup Series wins have come on the final two regular-season tracks, making him a dark-horse candidate this week and next.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.