Shane van Gisbergen’s road-course dominance continued last weekend at Watkins Glen International — matching Denny Hamlin with a Cup Series-best four wins in 2025.
Chris Buescher was in the mix at the New York road course, but he could only settle for a top five as a regular-season victory continues to evade the No. 17 RFK Racing driver.
With just two races remaining before the 16-driver playoff field is set, it’s still Buescher and teammate Ryan Preece sitting on opposite sides of the elimination line — separated by 34 points. However, as Richmond proved last summer, a shock could be waiting to throw a late twist into the postseason picture before the ultimate wild card of Daytona awaits in the regular-season finale.
Using predictions from Racing Insights, let’s take a look at who’s primed to put themselves in a position to lock into the playoffs Saturday at the Virginia short track (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
RELATED: Richmond schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Who’s in a great spot for Richmond]
You cannot talk about Richmond’s history now without last year’s edition, where Austin Dillon won in controversial fashion in overtime. The No. 3 Richard Childress Racing driver drove deep into Turns 3 and 4 on the final lap, punting leader Joey Logano and then turned down the track toward Denny Hamlin, putting the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in the wall before crossing the start/finish line as the leader. Dillon was awarded the victory, but penalized for his actions, with his playoff spot taken away.
A year later, Dillon can flip the narrative and walk out of Richmond with a clean victory. What goes overlooked is that the five-time Cup Series winner was the car to beat that night, leading 35 laps and cruising to victory before Ryan Preece and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got together in Turn 1 just in front of the No. 3 driver to send the race to overtime.
Dillon enters with the fifth-lowest probability [0.37%] in the field, but smaller tracks have favored the 35-year-old wheelman this year. Between Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, Dover and Iowa, Dillon’s worst finish was 18th, plus he’s coming off a top-10 run at Iowa. The odds aren’t in Dillon’s favor, but there’s been a lull in big surprises this year. Another Dillon victory would have bubble drivers in a panic heading to Daytona.
Brad Keselowski [6.95% playoff probability] also needs to be on your radar Saturday after his third-place run at Iowa two weeks ago. He had the best car throughout the race and likely would’ve clinched a playoff berth had it not been for a conglomeration of cautions that scrambled strategy and the field. The No. 6 Ford driver also ranks ninth in most points scored over the last 10 races, according to NASCAR Insights.
YELLOW FLAG [Who’s on the fringe for Richmond]
Alex Bowman [93.64% playoff probability] is a past Richmond winner and could lock into the postseason with some help Saturday, but his recent performances at the short track don’t bode well for a successful points outing this weekend. The No. 48 driver has finished 17th or worse in four of the last five Richmond events.
What Bowman is doing right is racking up points over the last month. The lowest amount he’s scored over the last four races was 30 at Watkins Glen. Despite finishing 20th last Sunday, he maximized his day by claiming 13 stage points at the road course. If Bowman can get some favorable track position early at Richmond, there’s a playoff ticket waiting with his name on it.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Richmond | Clinching scenarios for this weekend
RED FLAG [Who I’m concerned about heading to Richmond]
As was the case last year for Buescher [69.22% playoff probability], top fives won’t cut it when it comes to making the playoffs and a buffer over the elimination line is only good if someone doesn’t pull off an upset over the next two Saturdays. The No. 17 RFK driver has struggled on the slower-paced short tracks this year, finishing 22nd at Iowa and 24th at Martinsville back in the spring. His Richmond numbers have been pedestrian outside of his 2023 summer win and just one other top five coming in 2022.
Buescher ranks third in most points scored over the last 10 races [321], but there’s still the chance a new winner emerges, and it would make the strong efforts of the No. 17 team obsolete. The Prosper, Texas native will be the first to tell you that he “hates points racing,” and a victory would certainly do wonders for a driver who made the semifinal round of the postseason just two years ago.