Fantasy Fastlane: Experience goes a long way at Richmond

Success at Richmond Raceway leans toward having experience. Twelve of the last 13 races at the 0.75-mile oval have been won by drivers over 30 years old, according to Racing Insights. Long-run pace and tire wear could be coined as drinking words this weekend, with the most recent Richmond race featuring three cautions, tied for the fewest in the Next Gen era at a short track. Austin Dillon played spoiler last year, so could we see an encore on Saturday?

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 37-10

Hamlin might get booed at his home race track, but he's maximized opportunities here. He's won five times at Richmond, with two of those coming in the last six races. The No. 11 car has cracked the top two in the finishing order in six of the last eight Richmond events, including the last three. He's also won three of the last 10 short-track races.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Bell is still searching for his first Richmond victory, and the key for him will be pit road. In each of the last three Richmond events, Bell has been penalized for speeding. In two of those races, he's rebounded for sixth-place efforts, even after leading 122 laps last August. In nine Richmond starts, Bell has a 7.3 average finish, his best at any oval.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Qualifying well will be crucial, as Elliott's still in the mix for winning the regular-season championship. His 26th-place finish at Watkins Glen International did him no favors, but he has four top-five finishes in his last eight starts at Richmond (missed the spring 2023 race due to injury). Through 17 Richmond starts, Elliott has an average finish of 10.7.

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Consider me crazy, but Logano seems like a guaranteed spot this weekend in my lineup. He was a quarter-mile away from winning last August at Richmond until he was turned by Austin Dillon. Before finishing 19th because of Dillon's front bumper, Logano earned 18 top-10 finishes in 22 previous starts with Penske, including a pair of victories. If the No. 22 team has a postseason push in them again this year, it could start on Saturday evening.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

It's time to start thinking that Briscoe could be a sneaky Championship 4 pick, as the No. 19 team has been among the most consistent teams in the garage during its summer surge. The numbers for Briscoe look bleak at Richmond, with a best finish of 11th in eight starts. But he’s been a monster in qualifying all season, giving him good track position from the start. The No. 19 team has been stellar at Richmond in recent years with Martin Truex Jr., who had nine top 10s in the last 11 races.

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Less than a handful of laps last summer separated Dillon from having a statement win. After a caution in the waning laps, the No. 3 car wrecked Logano and clipped Hamlin all in one set of corners to march to the victory. Those decisions kept him from vying for a championship, as his playoff eligibility was denied. Clearly, Dillon is solid at Richmond, with seven top-10 finishes. He has been at his best at short tracks recently, with four top 10s in the last six events.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds: 28-1

This could easily be a combo pick with Preece or his boss Brad Keselowski. Let's highlight Preece, who is still hunting a playoff spot via points. He finished fifth at Richmond in 2023, his lone top 15 in nine starts. However, it's hard to compare his stats from years past to his breakout 2025 season. Preece made a living competing at smaller venues, and he has top 10s in half of the last eight short-track events.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 12-1

The 2023 champion has three top 10s in 17 starts, and for the longest time, he circled Richmond as his worst track on the calendar. He's never finished better than seventh. In fact, Richmond is the only active oval that Blaney hasn't cracked the top five.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

It's possible Busch finds magic in a bottle this weekend, but his best chances of making the postseason will likely come next weekend at Daytona International Speedway. Busch is among the best drivers to ever compete at Richmond with six victories, tied for third on the all-time wins list. The problem is he doesn't have a single top 10 in the last 12 short-track races.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

Reddick is still looking for his first short-track triumph, and both of his Richmond top 10s came in 2024. He placed third in this race last year, leading eight laps. Spanning the last 24 short-track races, Reddick has just three top-10 finishes, meaning this isn't exactly his forte.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

Per usual, when these two are squared off with each other, it should be a tough one to call. But a deep dive might say otherwise. Larson has been strong at Richmond with Hendrick Motorsports, finishing seventh or better in five of the last seven races in the Commonwealth. Hamlin is a master on short tracks, though, and Larson’s mid-season slump is a real problem with an average finish of 19.3 over the last 12 races.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. William Byron

If Bell has a clean race, he should outrun Byron at Richmond. This is among Byron’s worst race tracks, with just one finish better than seventh in (April 2022) in 13 starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Josh Berry

The tale of two seasons. Buescher needs two strong races and no new winners and he will earn a playoff spot. Meanwhile, Berry banked his playoff spot back in March, and has a single top-10 finish since (19 races). Buescher won here in 2023 and his back is against the wall in some ways, so the No. 17 team should come out firing.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott

Entering the weekend, this is the toughest matchup on paper. While the defending series champion has just a pair of top-five and six top-10 finishes through 24 races, he’s elite at Richmond in finding consistent finishes. Consistency is the moniker of Elliott’s entire 2025 campaign, though, as Watkins Glen was the first time he finished below 20th dating back to last October at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Elliott should get the nod.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson.

GARAGE: Chase Briscoe.

36 for 36: Two drivers stick out this weekend, and of course, one of them is Preece. He's a short-track stud who is taking a similar setup from Iowa two weeks ago to Richmond this weekend. That race started off poorly, but Preece got incrementally better and netted a top five. I'm leaning toward taking Dillon, however, as Richmond is among his best venues on the schedule and ultimately is the defending winner.