Racing Insights: Bowman projected to hit walk-off in Daytona regular-season finale

It all comes down to Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, Peacock) as the 16-driver Cup Series Playoffs field will be set after 400 miles under the lights.

The close-quartered pack racing around the 2.5-mile superspeedway will surely bring jaw-dropping moments and leave the door ajar for one last surprise as to who will race for the Bill France Cup. Before the green flag drops Saturday night, Racing Insights projects who could win their way into the playoffs at the last minute, along with full results predictions as 40 cars hit the high banks in the Sunshine State.

RELATED: Daytona schedule | Cup Series standings

Alex Bowman is the driver to beat Saturday night, according to Racing Insights. The No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports driver has yet to reach Victory Lane in 2025 and hasn’t since winning at Chicago last summer. Hendrick owns the most wins of any team on drafting tracks in the Next Gen era with seven, including two this season with William Byron nabbing the Daytona 500 and Chase Elliott scoring his rousing lone victory of the year at Atlanta.

Bowman has been hot this summer with an average finish of 8.6 in the last 10 races — the best among full-time drivers during that span. His numbers have also been pretty great at Daytona recently with finishes of sixth or better in four of the last five races at the Florida behemoth.

His Hendrick teammates Byron, Elliott and Kyle Larson are all among the projected top 10 for Daytona. For Larson, however, Daytona is the only track on the circuit where the No. 5 Chevrolet driver has made more than two starts and doesn’t own a top five. But three of his four drafting-track top fives have come in his last five starts.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRIS BUESCHER: The No. 17 RFK Racing Ford is trying to avoid being snubbed from the playoffs for the second year in a row, and his only path to do so is by winning Saturday night. Buescher won the 2023 regular-season finale at Daytona and has four top 10s in the last five Daytona races.

KYLE BUSCH: The two-time series champ was on the short end of consecutive runner-up finishes to close the regular season last year and is inching closer toward two straight seasons without a win. The No. 8 Richard Childress Racing driver has been strong at superspeedways since joining RCR, scoring eight top 10s in 16 drafting-track starts since joining the team. However, he has just one top 10 in his last five.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: The co-owner of RFK Racing would likely tell you it would be a disappointing season of none of the team’s three cars make the playoffs. Keselowski has one of the most up-and-down resumes at superspeedways, and a 22.3 average finish at Daytona is his worst among all ovals. However, Keselowski led the white-flag lap at the most recent drafting track in Atlanta before being passed by Elliott in Turn 1. Keselowski has also finished runner up in three of the last eight drafting-track races.

RICKY STENHOUSE JR.: If there’s one last “stone-cold stunner” to set the playoff field, the likeliest underdog to do it would be the No. 47 Hyak Motorsports driver. All four of his Cup wins have come on drafting tracks and he won the playoff race at Talladega last October. Stenhouse finished sixth at Atlanta and has five finishes of sixth or better in the last nine drafting-track events.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COKE ZERO SUGAR 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.