When the checkered flag waves Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, 16 drivers will lock in to compete for the 2025 Cup Series championship while the other 20 will be left pondering the what-ifs and what-could-have-beens after 26 weeks of points racing.
Like MLB’s wild-card round and the NBA’s Play-In Tournament, Daytona serves as the appetizer to display the assertiveness and heart-pounding moments that will come in the following 10-week postseason.
Twenty-two drivers still have a shot to secure one of the remaining two spots in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at who could shine and who will falter under the bright lights of Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, Peacock).
RELATED: Daytona schedule | Cup Series standings
GREEN FLAG [Who’s in a great spot for Daytona]
Going to go outside of the box from the jump here and label Ricky Stenhouse Jr. [0.59% playoff probability] here. The No. 47 Hyak Motorsports driver is arguably the best of the underdog bunch when it comes to superspeedways. All four of Stenhouse’s Cup wins have come at superspeedways, with two at Talladega and two at Daytona.
Stenhouse has also been consistent in recent outings at drafting tracks with finishes of sixth or better in the last nine such events, including a sixth-place result at the most recent drafting track in Atlanta back in June.
Only one of them can win, but all three RFK Racing Fords should be on your radar Saturday evening. Ford engines have the knack for starting up front at superspeedways, and if Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece can all stay together and toward the front, it bodes well for one of them becoming the 15th winner of 2025. Keselowski [2016] and Buescher [2023] are both past winners of the Daytona night race, while Preece has three top 10s in 11 Daytona starts.
YELLOW FLAG [Who’s on the fringe for Daytona]
It may be a bold take, however, I think Alex Bowman [89.68% playoff probability] can point his way into the playoffs and overtake Tyler Reddick. Daytona races have usually been contested between the Fords and Chevrolets, just based on sheer volume, and the Hendrick cars always come into play late in the race. If Bowman can grab a chunk of stage points and take a top 10, the opening is there to make up the 29 points on the No. 45 23XI Racing driver. That’s easier said than done, but the numbers are good for Bowman with finishes of sixth or better in four of the last five Daytona races and seven top 10s across the last 12 drafting-track races.
RACING INSIGHTS: Full race projections for Daytona
RED FLAG [Who I’m concerned about heading to Daytona]
Superspeedways are a game of numbers, and Toyota just doesn’t have enough horses in the Cup field to be dependable in this type of racing. You have to go back to 2020 for the last win by Toyota at Daytona, which was Denny Hamlin’s third victory in the Daytona 500.
This leads me to Reddick and the 89-point cushion he holds over the playoff cutline. Arguably, the biggest surprise of 2025 is Reddick not going to Victory Lane, and that may bite him fully when the checkered flag waves. It’s really a 29-point gap because the 2024 Regular Season Champion needs to beat Bowman on Saturday to guarantee his playoff hopes. The benefit that Reddick has over Bowman is that the No. 45 can play defensively and stick to the No. 48 for the race. If he does that, the points will equal out and easily see Reddick advance to the postseason.
However, Daytona is Reddick’s worst track on the Cup circuit, so a 400-mile cakewalk is not likely. Reddick has nine finishes of 25th or worse in 12 Daytona starts, bringing his average finish to 23rd at the Florida superspeedway. The bright spot for Reddick, though, is that he was slicing and dicing for the lead at Atlanta in June, finishing fourth, and is on a stretch of four top-six finishes in the last eight drafting-track events, including a Talladega win in the spring of 2024.