Fantasy Fastlane: Feast or famine for the field at Daytona as Penske, Hendrick lead the pack

After more than six months, the Cup Series playoff field will be set after 400 doughty miles at Daytona International Speedway. The objectives are simple: everyone currently below the playoff elimination line needs a win to qualify for the 2025 postseason. There are numerous drivers currently on the outside looking in who stand out entering the weekend, but to finish first, first you must finish. Superspeedways are always tricky from a fantasy perspective, but even more so when the bulk of the field could forego chasing stage points in favor of being in contention at the end. 

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 chartered cars to start the season and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Multiple drivers have coined Cindric as among the best superspeedway competitors in the field. He’s the 2022 Daytona 500 winner and won most recently at Talladega Superspeedway in late April. Team Penske has led 33% of all laps run on superspeedways since the start of 2023 and Cindric has scored the second-most points in the last 10 superspeedway races (325), according to Racing Insights. 

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Byron is the driver who’s scored the most wins in that same 10-race window (340), highlighted by consecutive Daytona 500 conquests. The worrisome part for Byron this weekend, however, is he clinched the regular-season title. That could mean he hangs low and neglects stage points. That could come in handy late, though, should he miss the late-race chaos. Byron is the only repeat winner at Daytona in the last 12 races, having visited Victory Lane three times. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Feast or famine perfectly describes Logano’s resume at Daytona. Take the last five races for instance: the No. 22 team has a pair of top-five efforts and three DNFs, resulting in finishes of 31st or worse. The No. 22 tends to lead a bulk of laps here and is tied with Martin Truex Jr. for most Daytona stage wins in the Next Gen (three). So, while the overall finish might not be ideal, Logano consistently earns stage points. 

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford 

Odds: 13-1

This is where it gets fun. With Austin Dillon’s dominant win at Richmond Raceway, Buescher dropped below the elimination line by 60 points. He’s in must-win mode, something he became familiar with after missing the postseason last year. The No. 17 team has four top 10s in the last five Daytona races and won the 2023 regular-season finale. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

With how well Bowman has placed at Daytona in recent years, he’s rivaling “must start” territory this weekend. During the last five Daytona events, Bowman has four finishes of sixth or better, including a runner-up finish in the 2024 Daytona 500. It will be interesting to see what strategy the No. 48 team employs this weekend, as he’s 29 points below Tyler Reddick for what would be the lone playoff spot on points if a new winner emerges from below the elimination line.

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 70-1

Don’t consider Allmendinger a driver who thrives with superspeedway racing, but his numbers say otherwise. Since 2017, Allmendinger has six top-10 finishes in eight Daytona starts, with a pair of third-place efforts. He didn’t show the No. 16 car’s capabilities in this year’s Daytona 500 after blowing an engine on Lap 42. 

SLEEPER PICK:

John Hunter Nemechek | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 42 Toyota

Odds: 45-1

Through five Daytona starts, Nemechek has never finished lower than 15th. He placed fifth in this year’s Daytona 500, which saw two Legacy Toyotas crack the top five for the first time in team history. Nemechek's 9.8 average finish here is his best at venues with multiple starts and the best among active drivers at Daytona. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Another battle to keep an eye on is for second in the regular-season standings. Larson enters the weekend fourth in points, 12 markers behind Chase Elliott. Second through sixth is separated by 23 points, meaning there could be a lot of jumbling. Larson has improved at drafting tracks with three top fives in the last five races. However, Daytona is his kryptonite, going 22 career starts without a single top-five finish. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds:  16-1

Hamlin is squarely in the battle for second in points, as well, trailing Elliott by five points entering Daytona. He’s a three-time Daytona 500 winner, though all of those came prior to the Next Gen car. Hamlin was in position to win this year’s Great American Race on the final lap before contact with Cole Custer triggered a substantial pileup, allowing Byron to scoot by from ninth to the lead. In seven Next Gen starts at Daytona, Hamlin has a best finish of 17th. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 11-1

Undoubtedly, Keselowski is among the greatest superspeedway drivers of this generation. That was on full display in June at EchoPark Speedway. But since winning at Daytona in 2016, Keselowski has a single top-five finish with three additional top 10s. He has 11 DNFs in that timeframe, all from accidents. Keselowski’s average finish of 22.3 at Daytona is his worst among all ovals. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Dillon vs. Chris Buescher

With Dillon scoring the Richmond win, it’s probably safe to assume that Buescher isn’t thrilled entering the weekend, dropping below the bubble and needing to win this weekend. Dillon has a pair of Daytona victories, and his nine top 10s are his most at any track, but recent numbers give Buescher the advantage.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Alex Bowman

If a new winner prevails, all eyes will scurry to this battle. Bowman hasn’t gained 29 points on Reddick in a single race this season. But in a matchup where finishing position matters, Bowman is the pick, as he’s consistently in the hunt at Daytona. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Preece vs. Kyle Busch

With all three RFK drivers entering Daytona in a must-win situation, it’s every man for themselves. Meanwhile, RCR will have all its attention focused on helping Busch snap the longest winless drought of his career and avoid missing the postseason for a second consecutive season. It might not be enough to win, but this battle should belong to the No. 8 car. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Brad Keselowski

With 64 laps led on drafting tracks in 2025, Gibbs ranks fourth in the field, trailing only Penske Fords, including Josh Berry. He has a single top 10 in six Daytona starts. Keselowski will get the nod on experience, but with both drivers in desperation mode, it wouldn’t be shocking to see neither driver get a good finish. 

MY LINEUP: Austin Cindric, William Byron, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman.

GARAGE: Chase Elliott.

36 for 36: UGH! Switching from Dillon to Preece after the No. 60 team won its first pole at Richmond had me fuming with how the race played out, plummeting in the standings. Always listen to your gut instinct. With an eventful Daytona race on deck, that means playing it safe. That leans me towards Ty Dillon this weekend, as six of his eight career top-10 finishes have come at drafting-style tracks, including the most recent trip to Atlanta (eighth).