As the host of NASCAR’s biggest race, Daytona International Speedway has been the place where dreams have come true every February for 66 years.
It’s only recently that the “World Center of Racing” has become the place where championship fantasies are entertained every August.
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Daytona was moved from its traditional July 4 holiday weekend to near the end of the regular season in 2020. In two of the five races since then, it’s delivered what would constitute a stunner in shaking up the playoff field.
In 2022, it was Austin Dillon leading 10 of the final 23 laps to vault into a playoff spot over Martin Truex Jr., who entered the race 230 points ahead of Dillon. In 2024, Harrison Burton, who already had earned a season-ending pink slip for being ranked 34th in the points, emerged from oblivion to lead the final lap and beat Kyle Busch.
Last year was a one-off as the penultimate race of the regular season. The 2.5-mile track has reclaimed its rightful place this year as the finale.
The summer race at Daytona has a knack for producing new winners. In five of the past seven years, the winning driver earned his first victory of the season — and four of those were first-time career winners: Erik Jones (2018), Justin Haley (’19), William Byron (‘ 20) and Burton.
With four of the past six drafting races having produced winners from below the cutline, the trend points toward another upstart winner Saturday night.
Two spots are available, and the scenarios are fairly simple. At least one playoff berth should go to either Tyler Reddick or Alex Bowman, and a win by either would also lock in the other driver.
For the other 20 playoff-eligible drivers, it’s win or bust.
Here are five long shots (based on the points standings) who might have a better chance than expected at realizing a Daytona dream of making the playoffs:
John Hunter Nemechek (26th): The best average finisher (9.8) at Daytona among active drivers is coming off a career-best fifth in the Daytona 500. Nemechek has finished on the lead lap in all five of his Cup starts on the 2.5-mile oval, and Legacy Motor Club Toyotas have been on the upswing the past few months.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (28th): Honestly, the only reason a win by the No. 47 Chevrolet driver would be classified as an upset is because he’s having such an abysmal season. Stenhouse isn’t quite the Shane van Gisbergen of superspeedways, but the two-time Daytona winner always seems at the front of any drafting track.
Daniel Suárez (29th): If you’re seeking this year’s parallel to Harrison Burton story line, this is it. The No. 99 Chevy driver is in his final season at Trackhouse Racing, but is showing some fight on his way out with consecutive seventh-place finishes. The 2024 EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta) winner has also been a perennial contender at drafting tracks.
Justin Haley (30th): The mostly forgotten man at Spire Motorsports also seems to be on the hot seat. He’s won here in Cup on a fortuitous pit call and some well-timed lightning strikes, but his consecutive summertime wins at Daytona in the Xfinity Series (2020-21) indicate he’s no slouch in the draft.
Todd Gilliland (31st): Gilliland struggles mightily to reach the finish line at Daytona, but Gilliland had led in two of the past three races in Front Row Motorsports Fords that always run well at drafting tracks. Good lineage: His dad pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Xfinity Series history at Kentucky Speedway in 2006.