The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are upon us, which means it’s time for 16 drivers to start building their respective paths to the 2025 championship beginning at Darlington Raceway.
The track “Too Tough to Tame” creates a grueling environment for the Cook Out Southern 500, with the latest iteration set for its traditional slot on Labor Day Weekend this Sunday (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
MORE: Darlington schedule | Playoff standings
It should come as no surprise that playoff drivers dominate the early projections from Racing Insights. Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner of NASCAR’s oldest crown-jewel race, triumphing in 2010, 2017 and 2021. Hamlin also won at the “Lady in Black” in April, leaving him with two wins, four top fives and five top 10s in his last eight Darlington starts. The numbers initially said Hamlin was due for another Southern 500 trophy Sunday night in South Carolina, but a Hendrick Motorsports trio might have something to say about that after qualifying.
William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are all projected to place within the top five Sunday night, and for good reason, with Byron moving past Hamlin to claim the top spot. No. 24 led an astounding 243 laps from pole earlier this year but ultimately finished as runner-up to Hamlin in overtime. The current driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has never won the Southern 500, but the Regular Season Champion did go to Victory Lane in the 2023 spring race and knows his way to Victory Lane there. Larson was victorious in the 2023 Southern 500 and led 263 laps in last year’s running ahead of a fourth-place finish, entering Sunday night with an impressive seven top fives and nine top 10s in 15 Darlington starts. Elliott, the 2020 series champion, is still looking for his first Darlington win, but his steadiness at the 1.366-mile oval could factor him into a challenge for the win on Sunday.
Entering the weekend, RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher is poised to produce the best finish for a driver outside the playoffs in 10th. Despite the heartbreak of missing the postseason, RFK Racing owner Brad Keselowski – projected 12th – did win the Darlington spring race in 2024 — a race Buescher nearly won before late contact with Tyler Reddick — and Buescher played spoiler in last year’s Round of 16 by winning at Watkins Glen International. Will anyone prevent a playoff driver from locking into the Round of 12 at Darlington?
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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH
CHASE BRISCOE: Don’t sleep on the defending winner of the Southern 500. Racing Insights’ projections list Briscoe as a top-10 finisher, but his charge to the 2024 victory over Kyle Busch remains his most impressive performance at the Cup level yet. Driving the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this time around, Briscoe may be in position to pounce again with that win and two top fives in his last three Darlington appearances.
TY GIBBS: The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been sneaky good at Darlington, netting a runner-up finish in the 2024 spring race and a top 10 in April. His Southern 500 numbers haven’t matched yet with a best finish of 15th in 2022 — his inaugural try — but perhaps a Daytona top 10 can help provide the 22-year-old with some momentum into the final stretch of the season.
ROSS CHASTAIN: Another driver who always runs well at Darlington is the watermelon farmer himself. Chastain has finished 11th or better in five of his last eight Darlington starts, including each of the last four. The Trackhouse Racing driver has finished fifth in each of the last two Southern 500s and placed third in 2021 while driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. A win Sunday would save him immense stress through the Round of 16 as he opens the postseason just one point above the provisional cutline, tied with Joey Logano.
BUBBA WALLACE: Wallace put the No. 23 Toyota on pole for 23XI Racing in the 2024 Southern 500 and led 37 laps before finishing 16th. The result isn’t much in the way of impressing, but Wallace did earn four straight top 10s at Darlington from the fall of 2022 through the spring of 2024 and has qualified outside the top 10 just once in his last six starts. Wallace enters the playoffs ranked ninth, tied with Austin Cindric, just two points above the cutline.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
| FINISH | CAR NUMBER | DRIVER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | William Byron* |
| 2 | 11 | Denny Hamlin* |
| 3 | 45 | Tyler Reddick* |
| 4 | 5 | Kyle Larson* |
| 5 | 9 | Chase Elliott* |
| 6 | 20 | Christopher Bell* |
| 7 | 12 | Ryan Blaney* |
| 8 | 23 | Bubba Wallace* |
| 9 | 19 | Chase Briscoe* |
| 10 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 11 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 12 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 13 | 22 | Joey Logano* |
| 14 | 1 | Ross Chastain* |
| 15 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 16 | 2 | Austin Cindric* |
| 17 | 48 | Alex Bowman* |
| 18 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | 21 | Josh Berry* |
| 20 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 21 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 22 | 3 | Austin Dillon* |
| 23 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 24 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 25 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen* |
| 26 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 27 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 28 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 29 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 30 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 31 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 32 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 33 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 42 | John H Nemechek |
| 35 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 44 | Derek Kraus |
| 38 | 66 | Timmy Hill |
*Denotes playoff driver