Fantasy Fastlane: Playoff drivers rule Darlington

With the mental focus that it takes to excel at Darlington Raceway, there is never a fluke winner. The elite drivers show up at the front constantly at the 1.366-mile, egg-shaped oval and perform at the highest level. Denny Hamlin leads the way for active drivers at the track "Too Tough to Tame," but there are plenty of playoff drivers who can kickstart the 2025 postseason with a bang. Driver usage resets to five starts over the final 10 races for the playoffs. Make sure to get those playoff picks in through the 2025 Playoffs Grid Challenge Presented by Goodyear!

LEARN MORE: Playoffs Grid Challenge

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 chartered cars to start the season and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 13-2

After having a quiet final month of the regular season, look for Hamlin to be a primary threat this weekend. He is the only repeat winner at Darlington in the last 11 races, visiting Victory Lane three times. Hamlin has led laps in all 11 events, the longest stretch for any driver since Darrell Waltrip did so in 17 consecutive races (1976-1984). Hamlin is simply phenomenal at Darlington, scoring five victories, cracking the top five in 53.8% of starts, ranking in the top 10 in 73.1% of starts and his average finish of 7.9 is the best all-time by a driver with more than two starts.  

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 4-1

Byron led the most laps in track history to start a race in the spring with 243, and he will aim for redemption after finishing runner-up to Hamlin. Byron ranks best in the series with an average finish of 9.1 in the Next Gen car here, and it would be even better if he wasn’t punted into the wall by Joey Logano while racing for the lead in the spring 2022 race. He was also caught up in a late wreck last year while running inside the top 10 and dropping to 30th. 

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

After three months of sparse success, Larson should get back on track at Darlington. His numbers in the Southern 500 are astounding, leading at least 124 laps four times, including 263 in last year’s event. Larson has just one win at Darlington (2023) but has seven top-five efforts in 15 starts. 

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota 

Odds: 17-2

Reddick limps into the playoffs with just one top-10 finish in the last six races. Darlington provides a fresh start, however, at a venue where he’s excelled in recent memory. He’s placed on the podium in a series-high three of the seven Next Gen races here, and his 243 points scored during that span ranks third among all drivers. Darlington is also the track where Reddick has the most top 10s in his career (six) and laps led (319). 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

Given Briscoe is the defending winner of this event, competing for a dissipating Stewart-Haas Racing, he could be on the verge of “must-start” territory this weekend. He has top fives in two of the last three Darlington races, and he has often alluded to the “Lady in Black” as being among his favorite venues. Briscoe could make some noise in the playoffs and is a plausible Championship 4 pick. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Moving outside the playoff bubble, Buescher is among the best of the rest entering the weekend. Despite finishing 10th in regular-season points, the No. 17 car missed the postseason after not winning a regular-season race for the second year in a row. Buescher is a suitable pick this weekend, with all six of his Darlington top 10s coming in the last nine races. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota

Odds: 60-1

Jones often gets touted as being a sleeper at Darlington, but it’s the Southern 500 specifically that stands out for him. He’s won this event twice (2019 and 2022), and his five top-five and eight top-10 finishes are tied for his best at any circuit. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Had it not been for a late caution and a sluggish pit-road stop in April, Blaney would have likely earned his first Darlington victory. But the overarching numbers would spit out that Darlington is among Blaney’s worst tracks on the schedule with a quartet of top 10s in 17 attempts. He has an average finish of 18.8 at Darlington, and the 24 laps led is his fewest at an active oval. Don’t worry Blaney fans, think we’ll use the No. 12 car a bunch during the playoffs. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 45-1

Bowman has wind for a postseason run after getting into the playoffs by the skin of his teeth. The No. 48 team has been executing at a high level, finishing 11th or better in eight of the last 11 races this season. Darlington has been a mystery for Bowman, though, with finishes of 17th or worse in six of the last eight races, accumulating five total stage points in the Next Gen. Not ideal for a fantasy lineup.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Josh Berry | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Berry is coming off consecutive top 10s for the first time in 2025, but he only has one additional top 10 (Kansas) since winning at Las Vegas way back in March. He placed third here last spring with SHR, but that’s his only effort better than 30th in four starts. Many have Berry as a sleeper to get through to the Round of 12, but it could be an uphill battle if he can’t avoid a rough outing at Darlington.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Briscoe vs. Tyler Reddick

While Reddick is listed as a starter and Briscoe as a sleeper, the No. 19 car should get the nod in a heads-up finishing battle. These two conversely flip-flop throughout the race, as Reddick often scores stage points and Briscoe rallies late in races with runner-up finishes in three of the last seven races. Both are quality at Darlington.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Ross Chastain

Blaney is going to have raw pace; it’s just about putting full races together. His seven DNFs – many not of his own doing – in the regular season were tied with Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson and Cody Ware for the most in the series. Chastain said last weekend that his postseason success could depend on how much speed the No. 1 car unloads with off the hauler on Saturday morning. Chastain has finished seventh or better in three of the last four races here, so let’s roll with the No. 1 car in an upset. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Christopher Bell

Hamlin is among the best drivers to ever compete at Darlington, running a unique line around the rugged track. Meanwhile, Bell has placed third in the last two Darlington races. Prior to that, Bell had two top 10s in his first 12 tries at the track. You can’t bet against Hamlin here. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

What a brutal matchup between powerhouse teammates to begin the Round of 16. Pick your poison here, though Byron is the more consistent driver in 2025, being crowned the Regular Season Champion. It wouldn’t surprise me if these two Hendrick drivers are challenging each other for the checkered flag. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe.

GARAGE: Chris Buescher

36 for 36: It’s time to go big, repeatedly. Eight of my 10 drivers remaining are part of the playoff grid, so it’s time to burn them up. Let’s start the postseason with Reddick, as statistically, this is his best track. Whether the No. 45 team makes another run into later rounds could depend on Darlington, as he’s struggled at the other two venues in the Round of 16. He’s elite here though, despite still looking for that coveted first triumph.