RELATED: Chase Grid
The Championship 4 is finally here, or, if you’re more like me, it’s hard to believe it’s already here and another season is about to be put in the books. How will the final chapter read when it’s written on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway?
Will the story be Jimmie Johnson tying Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt with his seventh NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship?
Will it be Carl Edwards, vindicating himself after falling short to Tony Stewart in 2011 and cementing his status as Hall of Fame-worthy?
Or will Kyle Busch become the first back-to-back champion since Johnson reeled off five in a row from 2006-2010?
Or finally, might it be Joey Logano riding a recent hot streak and Chase excellence to his first title after disappointment the past two seasons?
It all will be decided starting at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, of course, but before that, let’s run the numbers and give you an early look at who might pen this best seller.
Like we did for previous playoff rounds, we’ll look at results for average finish, then move on to laps led before unveiling the final prediction:
Average Finish
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Joey Logano | 10 |
| T-2. | Kyle Busch | 7 |
| T-2. | Carl Edwards | 7 |
| 4. | Jimmie Johnson | 6 |
How we got the numbers: We assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: average finish this season, average finish in the last five races and average finish at the Championship 4 track. For example, if a driver was tops in average finish this season, he got 4 points; second place got 3 points and so on down to last place, which got one point. Then, we added up the point values each driver earned in the three categories to arrive at the above list. Here is the top driver and bottom driver in each category:
Average finish this season:
Leader: Joey Logano, 10.7
Follower: Jimmie Johnson, 14.3
Average finish last five races:
Leader: Joey Logano, 3.2
Follower: Carl Edwards, 17.4
Average finish at Championship 4 track:
Leader: Carl Edwards, 9.2
Follower: Kyle Busch, 21.1
Analysis: If you’re looking to ride the hot hand, Joey Logano is your man. He’s finished in the top three in four of the past five races and has an average finish of 3.2 in that span. … However, Logano has the best average finish for the season, too. His mark of 10.7 is slightly better than Kyle Busch‘s 11.6, so Logano has been relatively consistent. … Carl Edwards holds the edge at Miami, where he leads the Championship 4 drivers in average finish and wins with two. The glimmer of hope for the rest of the field is that Edwards did that damage a while ago with his wins coming in 2008 and 2010.
Now, let’s take a look at how the drivers fared in laps led.
Laps Led
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Carl Edwards | 9 |
| 2. | Kyle Busch | 8 |
| 3. | Jimmie Johnson | 7 |
| 4. | Joey Logano | 6 |
How we got the numbers: Same as with average finish, we assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: laps led this season, laps led in the last five races and laps led at the Championship 4 track. Then, we added up the point values to arrive at the above list. Here is the top driver and bottom driver in each category:
Laps led this season:
Leader: Kyle Busch, 1,378
Follower: Joey Logano, 697
Laps led last five races:
Leader: Joey Logano, 304
Follower: Kyle Busch, 7
Laps led at Championship 4 track:
Leader: Carl Edwards, 568
Follower: Joey Logano, 72
Analysis: Kyle Busch hasn’t been out front much lately, but for the season his car has arguably been the best. He might be the proverbial wolf in sheep’s clothing who’s ready to pounce on the other Championship 4 competitors now that Miami has arrived. Plus, he was the fastest in qualifying among the Chase drivers. … This isn’t the seven Jimmie Johnson wants, as in seven points for his stats in laps led. So in order for Johnson to win his seventh title on Sunday, he’ll need to buck the statistical trends, like having the second-fewest laps led this season and at Homestead among the Chase drivers.
FINAL PREDICTION
| Rank | Driver | Points |
|---|---|---|
| T-1. | Joey Logano | 16 |
| T-1. | Carl Edwards | 16 |
| 3. | Kyle Busch | 15 |
| 4. | Jimmie Johnson | 13 |
Final prediction: For the first time since we’ve been doing the predictions, there’s a tie at the top — and either way, it appears as though there will be a first-time winner who gets crowned on Sunday. But this isn’t the NFL where ties are allowed, so let’s break away from the formula briefly and just make a call.
Edwards has the history behind him at Miami and has shown speed this weekend. However, he has the worst average finish in the past five races and his win at Texas saved him from a 36th-place finish at Martinsville.
For Logano, he’s been hot lately but has the worst history at Miami with the fewest laps led among the Championship 4 drivers.
As far as intangibles, Edwards has a slightly better pit crew, but he might feel more pressure to overcome what happened in 2011. Plus, this is a numbers column, so we’re not keen on using intangibles as a big factor.
Sentimentally, I’d like to see Edwards win because he’s from the same town where I went to college. But in the numbers game, one must be heartless.
There’s no denying that Logano has run up front more in recent races, has led more laps recently and has been more dominant overall. So despite Edwards’ edge in history, the pick is for Logano to write a new chapter of history on Sunday that includes capping the “Golden Year” of 50 for Team Penske.