Denny Hamlin showed out once again, collecting his series-best fifth win of 2025 and locking himself into the Round of 12 with Sunday’s World Wide Technology Raceway victory. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver maintains his perennial Championship 4 aspirations, but if he were to reach it this year, could he be joined by one of his 23XI Racing drivers alongside him for the first time?
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs contenders after the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and before Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
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Analysis: The veteran delivered yet another signature performance Sunday at Gateway, leading 75 laps to claim his fifth win of 2025 and punch his ticket to the Round of 12 alongside teammate Chase Briscoe. With four career Bristol wins and a proven track record of playoff prowess, Hamlin enters the elimination race with utmost confidence and the luxury of focusing purely on accumulating playoff points for future rounds.
Analysis: The now two-time defending Southern 500 champion rebounded from a mid-race mishap to finish a strong second at Gateway behind teammate Denny Hamlin, earning valuable stage points and maintaining his playoff points advantage from his Darlington victory and stage wins. Already locked into the Round of 12, Briscoe can attack Bristol with maximum aggression, using his short-track skills and proven ability to rise in big moments to potentially add another playoff point tally before the elimination race cuts his competition by a quarter.
Analysis: Larson bounced back from his Darlington struggles with a 41-point, 12th-place Gateway finish, enjoying a comfortable 60-point cushion above the cutline heading into Bristol. His dominant Bristol history — including leading a track-record 462 laps to a win in 2024’s night race — makes him the favorite to control Saturday’s elimination contest and potentially lock up his Round of 12 spot with another signature Bristol performance as this team looks to regain its early-season footing.
Analysis: The Team Penske driver grabbed a crucial fourth-place Gateway finish to strengthen his playoff position and leave with a 42-point margin above elimination. While Team Penske hasn’t translated much recent success into wins at Bristol (no current driver for the team has won there in a decade), Blaney’s consistent short-track skill and ability to stay clean under pressure make him a solid contender to advance through the cutoff race by accumulating necessary stage points and avoiding wrecks.
Analysis: An eighth-place Gateway performance moved Wallace into fourth in points with an astounding 50-point cushion, as he goes from a late-clinching playoff driver to sudden potential championship heavyweight. While Bristol hasn’t been his strongest venue historically, he’s clearly riding a hot streak and could actually back up his first Bristol top five, collected in this race last year. Either way, he appears destined for the Round of 12. And then some.
Analysis: The Regular Season Champion managed an 11th-place Gateway result to maintain his 39-point cushion, but his Hendrick Motorsports team still appears to be searching for the speed that helped it dominate earlier in the season. His improving Bristol record in recent years and Hendrick’s historical ability to peak during playoff pressure should provide the foundation needed to safely advance, but he’s not out of the woods just yet.
Analysis: Bell salvaged a seventh-place Gateway result — despite having a car extremely capable of winning — to maintain his 32-point advantage above elimination, rebounding from his Darlington disaster to reinvigorate his championship hopes. His ability to run up front at Bristol makes him a winning threat and a solid bet to advance, provided the mechanical gremlins and pit-road issues that have been cropping up stay away.
Analysis: The past champion delivered his best Gateway performance with a third-place finish, extending his playoff margin to 28 points and showcasing the speed that’s been missing for much of the season. His recent Bristol improvements and ability to rise in elimination scenarios position him well to secure Round of 12 advancement and potentially build momentum for deeper playoff runs, though he’s yet to win at the “Last Great Colosseum” through 16 starts.
Analysis: Reddick slipped to 16th at Gateway, which trimmed his playoff points cushion to 37 but kept him safely above the cutline for now. Despite the less-than-ideal result, his gritty driving style and recent resilience bode well for Bristol’s physical, short-track racing. He’ll need to stay out of trouble and score stage points to avoid last-minute elimination risk, but his form suggests he can handle the pressure and advance with a solid outing, even though his Bristol results are lacking (one top 10 in eight starts).
Analysis: The three-time champion clawed to fifth at Gateway, improving his cutline margin to 21 points and buying himself just a bit of breathing room for Bristol’s elimination battle. He’s arguably the most dangerous driver currently sitting near the bubble, so his competitors would love to see him run into trouble Saturday night and halt his quest for a third title in four years.
Analysis: Cindric managed to stay in 12th with an 11-point buffer above the cutline after Gateway, clinging to the final advancement spot by the thinnest of margins despite rolling into the track as the defending winner. He’s in position to advance for now, but Cindric likely must leverage both strategy and clean, aggressive driving at Bristol to survive the elimination race — which may be a tall task with a 22.6 average finish there.
Analysis: Chastain struggled to 24th at Gateway, dropping his playoff buffer to just 19 points and putting him dangerously close to elimination territory heading into Bristol. His historically aggressive style could either vault him to safety or create the chaos that ends his championship hopes, as he’s kind of caught in between needing to go for the win or play it safe, making him one of the most unpredictable wildcards in Saturday’s cutoff race.
Analysis: The No. 3 driver sits 11 points below the other Austin under the cutline after Gateway but has a legitimate reason for optimism heading to Bristol, where he scored a top 10 earlier this year. Dillon’s Bristol history is also remarkably clean given the track’s volatile nature, so he could theoretically capitalize on chaos to climb above the elimination line by the time the checkered flag falls.
Analysis: SVG likely could have survived a 25th at Gateway if Darlington had produced the top 10 he was hoping for there, but instead, he now drops 15 points below the cutline and deeper into elimination territory. With limited NASCAR short-track experience and no standout Bristol performances to lean on, van Gisbergen faces a steep climb requiring either a miracle drive or significant chaos ahead to extend his playoff run.
Analysis: Bowman’s 26th-place Gateway finish left him 35 points below the cutline, putting him in an essential must-win scenario for Bristol’s elimination race without a lot of help. While he’s delivered clutch victories before, his inconsistent Bristol record, the steep points deficit and struggling pit crew make his advancement chances slim without a dramatic Saturday night performance.
Analysis: The sophomore’s playoff nightmare continued with a 36th-place Gateway finish and early exit that left him 45 points below the cutline and virtually eliminated barring a long-shot Bristol victory. He’s a short-track racer at heart, and there’s no reason to say this won’t happen, but it’s quite unlikely.