Bubble Watch: Does a surprise first-round elimination loom at Bristol?

Saturday marks the first elimination race in the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs as the circuit shifts to the daunting Bristol Motor Speedway under the lights (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, NBC Sports App, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), where track position will be at a premium and a new right-side tire could affect strategy.  

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward advancing to the Round of 12 with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Playoff standings

Safely above the elimination line:

1. Denny Hamlin (ADV)

2. Chase Briscoe (ADV)

3. Kyle Larson (plus-60)

4. Bubba Wallace (plus-50)

Not as safe but still with a high-percentage chance of advancing:

5. Ryan Blaney (plus-42)

6. William Byron (plus-39)

7. Tyler Reddick (plus-37)

8. Christopher Bell (plus-32)

Chase Elliott 

Points above elimination line: 28

Chances of advancing to next round: 97.49%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Bristol outlook -- Warm: Elliott enters Saturday's race off a much needed third-place run at Gateway. Despite not having a win at Bristol, his 444 laps led at the short track are his most at any current track without a win and he's finished eighth or better in four of the last five Bristol races. 

Joey Logano

Points above elimination line: 21

Chances of advancing to next round: 90.26%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Bristol outlook -- Ice Cold: After a clutch top five at Gateway to move above the cutline, Logano still has significant work to do Saturday and will need to buck the Next Gen trend he's had at Bristol. An average finish of 27th at the concrete short track since 2022 is his worst among all short tracks. 

Ross Chastain

Points above elimination line: 19

Chances of advancing to next round: 84.94%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Warming up: 2025 has been an odd year for Chastain. He's been almost too quiet since his thrilling Coca-Cola 600 triumph and doesn't have a top 10 after the first two playoff races. However, he's still above the cutline and he's placed inside the top 10 three times in the last five Bristol races. 

Austin Cindric

Points above elimination line: 11

Chances of advancing to next round: 71.72%

Trending: Cold

Bristol outlook -- Cold: Cindric holds the final spot for a Round of 12 berth, but he'll need to have a career day in "Thunder Valley" if he expects to advance safely. In five starts at Bristol, he has a best finish of just 13th. 

Austin Dillon

Points below elimination line: 11

Chances of advancing to next round: 37.47%

Trending: Cooling Off

Bristol outlook -- Cold: Dillon finished top 10 in the spring race earlier this year, but it may not be enough to make up the 11-point gap to Cindric. He may need to match a career-best fourth-place result at the track (2016) if the No. 3 wants to keep his title hopes alive.  

Shane van Gisbergen

Points below elimination line: 15

Chances of advancing to next round: 10.17%

Trending: Ice Cold

Bristol outlook -- Ice Cold: Well, SVG used up all of his point buffer to start the postseason and then some. After results of 32nd and 25th to open the playoffs, van Gisbergen will need nothing short of a miracle Saturday night to advance to the Round of 12. His Cup debut at Bristol earlier in the spring ended before the halfway mark with a 38th-place result. 

Alex Bowman

Points below elimination line: 35

Chances of advancing to next round: 6.65%

Trending: Ice Cold

Bristol outlook -- Hit or Miss: The good news? Bowman has won the pole in the last two Bristol races and finished ninth in last year's night race. The bad news? Thirty-five points to make up is almost must-win territory and the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver will need to put on the best 500 laps he's ever ran at the Tennessee short track to save his season. 

Josh Berry

Points below elimination line: 45

Chances of advancing to next round: 2.99%

Trending: Ice Cold

Bristol outlook -- Hit or Miss: It's been a postseason to forget for Berry with two wrecks at Darlington at Gateway to put him in a likely must-win situation Saturday night. With short tracks being his background, a victory at Bristol is certainly not out of the question. However, he's mustered only a best result of 12th at the short track in three career starts.