Fantasy Fastlane: All in on Hendrick Motorsports at Kansas

It might seem like many moons ago since the Cup Series last visited an intermediate track on the 2025 schedule. The most recent trip was four months ago for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Round of 12 turns to Kansas Speedway, where Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing have led the charge in recent years. Some drivers expect more of the same this weekend, while others are unsure what organizations will bring speed.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 37-10

It seems like Larson would be a safe bet this weekend. The No. 5 team had the only perfect race of the season (61 points) in the last trip to Kansas in May, including a bonus point for having the Xfinity Fastest Lap. He leads the way in points accumulated at intermediate tracks in 2025 with 212. In nine Kansas starts with HMS, Larson has three victories and two runner-up finishes while leading 760 laps. The next closest driver in that period is Christopher Bell with 197 laps led.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Throughout Hamlin’s career, he’s done a commendable job of putting distractions aside. The latest one includes a twist with JGR teammate Ty Gibbs last weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He is the winningest driver at Kansas with four triumphs. He has six top-five finishes in the last eight trips to the Sunflower State alone.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-1

Though Elliott has just a single victory at Kansas way back in 2018, it’s among his most consistent venues on the circuit. The 2020 Cup champion has 12 top-10 finishes through 19 starts at Kansas, his most at a non-short track. He has tabulated a 10.4 finish in that span, his best at any intermediate track. The key for Elliott is qualifying, as his 16.9 average starting position is 17th best in the series.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

With only two starts left with Bell over the final six races of the season, I’m opting to not use the No. 20 car this weekend. And while he’s still searching for a victory at Kansas, his statistics stand out. Not only has he won the Busch Light Pole Award for three of the last four races here, but he has eight top-10 finishes in 11 Kansas starts, seven of those coming in the last eight races.

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

With how well HMS has run at Kansas in recent visits, it seems like a cheat code to list Bowman as a sleeper. But by most standards, this is his best race track. In 19 Kansas starts, the Arizona native has 11 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 14.2, his best at any oval with more than three attempts. He has six straight top 10s at Kansas entering this weekend (didn’t compete in the spring 2023 event), the longest streak in the series.

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

During the last 1.5-mile race at Charlotte, Hocevar came from the rear of the field to battle for the lead before his engine expired. The following week at Nashville Superspeedway, an oval with intermediate tendencies, he earned a runner-up finish. His Kansas numbers look bleak with a best finish of 20th through four starts, but you can’t teach speed, which is something the 22-year-old has in loads.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Similar to Elliott, qualifying has been the kryptonite for Chastain in 2025, ranking 23rd among full-time drivers. But if the No. 1 car gets track position, look out. He enters this weekend as the defending race winner after a fierce battle with Kyle Busch in the late stages. His last two victories have come at 1.5-mile tracks, including the Coca-Cola 600 in May. Chastain is the best defender in the series at intermediate tracks in 2025 and ranks second on restarts, according to Racing Insights.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 11-1

The mystic over Reddick’s 2025 campaign continued with another brake issue last weekend at New Hampshire. Sitting 11th on the playoff grid, 23 points below the cutline, the No. 45 team needs a strong two weeks to advance to the Round of 8. Sure, he won at Kansas in 2023, but in the three races since, he has a best finish of 17th. More concerning is that his average finish of 17.8 is his worst among 1.5-mile tracks.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 45-1

With how dominant Penske was at New Hampshire, it was a missed opportunity for Cindric. The No. 2 team enters Kansas, arguably Cindric’s worst track on the schedule, 19 points below the cutline. He has finished 31st or worse in four of the last five Kansas races and has yet to crack the top 10 in the final rundown. His 23.6 average finish here is the worst among any track with at least seven starts.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 40-1

There are certain things to expect in Kansas City: the Chiefs having a Super Bowl caliber team (sigh, coming from a Buffalo Bills diehard), the Royals being on the playoff bubble yearly (though they were eliminated from contention earlier this week) and Gibbs looking ahead to the next race weekend. Four of his six Kansas starts have resulted in finishes of 28th or worse. It’s been a struggle at 1.5-mile venues in general for the No. 54 team, with finishes of 22nd or worse in seven straight races.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Briscoe vs. Bubba Wallace

Aside from scoring a 2022 victory at Kansas in dominant fashion, Wallace’s numbers leave a lot to be desired with finishes of 17th or worse in the last four races. Briscoe’s fourth-place effort in May is his only finish better than 13th in nine starts. The No. 19 team is among the top cars in the series at intermediates, though, with Martin Truex Jr. typically being a factor here in previous seasons (10 top 10s at Kansas in 12 starts with JGR).

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Tyler Reddick

It wasn’t long ago that 23XI won three out of four races at Kansas, all with different drivers. But since then, Chastain has reached Victory Lane here and has also won the series’ most recent trip to a 1.5-mile venue. He tends to make lemons out of lemonade, wheeling the No. 1 car for all its worth.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott

Kansas is among Elliott’s best tracks in the series, though he’s flown under the radar, never leading more than 48 laps in 19 starts. Logano, meanwhile, is one of the hottest drivers in Cup, posting three consecutive top-five efforts for the first time in more than six years. Even though Logano is a multi-time winner here, Elliott is the pick. Even No. 22 crew chief Paul Wolfe believes that Kansas will be a struggle.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. Denny Hamlin

Ah yes, the usual Larson vs. Hamlin matchup at Kansas. Historically, these are two of the elite drivers at Kansas with seven combined victories, including six of the last 12. It’s also the site of Larson’s last hoorah, so the No. 5 car should have the slight advantage.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe.

GARAGE: Ross Chastain.

36 for 36: Changing to Logano at New Hampshire netted me 52 points, turning out to be the No. 22 team’s biggest points total since the spring Atlanta race in 2023 (59). This week, I’m all in on Hamlin, as he’s one of the greatest drivers at the Midwestern 1.5-mile venue. The primary concern this weekend is having two new pit-crew members, with the front-tire changer and jackman getting suspended from a violation at Bristol. Hamlin should have the speed to compete for the victory.