Kansas Speedway has become a favorite among fans in the Next Gen era.
The combination of a surface that wears tires with a multi-groove track helps negate the massive clean-air advantage we see at most other tracks, allowing drivers with faster cars to make passes throughout the field.
This skillset falls right into the hands of Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) favorites, which include Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and William Byron based on live NASCAR odds for Kansas.
However, I’m pivoting away from outright bets and heavy-hitters in favor of a driver matchup that appears to be mispriced due to breaking NASCAR news.
MORE: See starting lineup | Full Kansas race preview
NASCAR Odds, Driver Matchup Pick for Kansas
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Shane van Gisbergen and the No. 88 Trackhouse Racing team got hit with a big penalty ahead of today’s race for unapproved adjustments before practice.
As a result, crew chief Stephen Doran was ejected for today’s race. Still, the more significant consequences for our purposes are that van Gisbergen will lose his pit stall selection (meaning he’ll have one of the worst stalls in the field), will have to start the race at the rear of the field and then a stop-and-go penalty after the race goes green.
This puts van Gisbergen at a huge disadvantage to start the race and, barring a very early caution, will likely put the No. 88 a lap down early.
In addition, Michael McDowell is also serving the same penalty, which could make van Gisbergen’s chances of grabbing the lucky dog from an early caution difficult since it’s likely that McDowell will be faster today at Kansas and ahead of van Gisbergen.
Because of the penalty,
I’m taking Ty Dillon in a driver matchup over van Gisbergen at +100 odds (DraftKings).
This is more of a van Gisbergen fade than a bet on Dillon, per se, but I’m having a hard time passing up a Kaulig Racing driver as an underdog to a driver that already struggles on large ovals and will start the race in a big early hole.
NASCAR Pick: Ty Dillon (+100) over Shane van Gisbergen — DraftKings