Bubble Watch: Will anyone hit a walk-off at the Charlotte Roval to advance?

Despite a swarm of Toyotas in front of him in overtime, Chase Elliott passed them all to take a thrilling race to the checkered flag at Kansas to punch his ticket to the Round of 8. With the postseason script flipping in one corner, 17 of them come into play this weekend as the Cup Series playoff field is cut from 12 to eight with an elimination race at the Charlotte Roval on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).  

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race at the Roval, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Drivers on the rise after Kansas

Safely above the elimination line

1. Chase Elliott (ADV)

2. Ryan Blaney (ADV)

3. Kyle Larson (plus-54)

4. Denny Hamlin (plus-48)

Christopher Bell

Points above cutline: 44

Chances of advancing to next round: 99.9%

Trending: Hot

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Hot: Bell is no stranger to walk-off victories in elimination races, and while he can clinch mid-race, he will be a strong candidate to bank extra playoff points for the Round of 8. He was the winner of the 2022 Roval event and was runner-up to Kyle Larson in last year's race.

William Byron

Points above cutline: 40

Chances of advancing to next round: 99.3%

Trending: Warm ...? 

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Hot: Leaving a question mark for No. 24 because Byron's full performance Sunday at Kansas was anything but the top-10 finish that he ended up scoring. Byron spent most of Kansas outside the top 10 and was on the brink of falling a lap down. But late cautions and two wild overtime restarts put him in position to squeak out a ninth-place finish and hold a healthy gap to the cutline. 

Byron is also quite good at the Roval, entering Sunday with top-three finishes in the last two events at the road course. 

Chase Briscoe

Points above cutline: 21

Chances of advancing to next round: 90.2%

Trending: Hot

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold: Briscoe continues to pitch top-10 performance after top-10 performance so far in the playoffs. He's had an interesting history at the Roval. He clutched up with a top 10 in 2022 to get a surprising bid into the Round of 8, but was eliminated at the road course last year due to a mechanical failure. Briscoe's road-course equipment has been quite good this season with top 10s in three of the five races.  

Joey Logano

Points above cutline: 13

Chances of advancing to next round: 71.3%

Trending: Cooling Off

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: Last year, Logano was eliminated from the playoffs after the checkered flag. A few hours later, he was back in the mix after Alex Bowman was disqualified in post-race inspection and the No. 22 driver went on to win his third title. Logano will likely not want to wait that long again on Sunday and he'll want to start up front to put himself in position to score as many stage points as possible to hold Ross Chastain at bay. 

Logano finished eighth in the aforementioned race last year and tallied 18 stage points in the process. 

Ross Chastain

Points below cutline: 13

Chances of advancing to next round: 22.9%

Trending: Lukewarm 

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold: One of the defining factors of Chastain's 2025 campaign is that he's never really gone on a hot streak nor has he gone completely cold. He just hangs around enough to give himself a shot and that's the opportunity he'll have Sunday to keep his title hopes alive. The Roval hasn't been great to him though as he's finished 28th or worse in two of the last three races. 

Bubba Wallace

Points below cutline: 26

Chances of advancing to next round: 4.9%

Trending: Warming Up

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: Wallace's improvements on road courses have been noted but how will he respond after what looked to be a win Sunday at Kansas was taken away after contact in the final corner with his team co-owner Denny Hamlin put the No. 23 in the wall? There's a lot riding on Sunday and if it's not a win for Wallace, he'll need a perfect day in finish and stage points to have a shot at getting into the Round of 8. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below cutline: 29

Chances of advancing to next round: 11%

Trending: Warming Up

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: 2025 is gonna be remembered as a 'what happened?' kind of year for Reddick and the No. 45 team. No wins through 31 races is still shocking, but Reddick will be a player for the victory Sunday. He's averaged over 40 points at the Roval in the Next Gen car, which is best among his playoff competitors. 

Austin Cindric

Points below cutline: 48

Chances of advancing to next round: 0.8%

Trending: Ice Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warming Up: The playoffs just haven't gone right for Cindric and he'll need to muster the finest performance of his Cup career to date with a win at the Roval to advance. He finished fourth in last year's race, so he's not one to count out, but Sunday will be nothing short of an uphill battle for the No. 2 Team Penske team.