Racing Insights: Who grabs championship advantage with a Las Vegas win?

Eleven. Twelve. Five. Twenty-four. Twenty. Nine. Nineteen. Twenty-two.

No, those aren’t the winning numbers from a table game at South Point casino. But one of those numbers could represent the first driver to punch their ticket to the Championship 4 Sunday in the Mojave Desert, if the odds fall in their favor.

After Saturday’s practice and qualifying, Racing Insights projects William Byron to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (5:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) and clinch a spot in the title race next month at Phoenix Raceway.

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Byron impressed on Saturday with his long-run speed and will start fifth. Byron’s recorded top 10s in each of the last five Vegas races, tying his active personal best clip at Talladega. He’s led in each of those five Sin City events and has averaged a whopping 42 points over his last 10 races at 1.5-mile circuits. As a whole, Hendrick has won five of the last nine races at Las Vegas.

But no matter which angle you look at Sunday’s 400-miler, everything leads back to his teammate, Kyle Larson. The 33-year-old from Elk Grove, California is a three-time Las Vegas winner, including the spring of 2021, when Larson earned his first of 26 victories and counting with the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team. His 426 laps led at 1.5-mile tracks are the most of all drivers this year, as is his 8.7 running position, and he’s led in 19 of the last 20 mile-and-a-half races. He’ll start sixth on the grid.

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With as strong as Toyota has been this year, particularly in the playoffs, success at mile-and-a-half tracks has eluded them. The manufacturer is winless in six races in 2025, but it’s certainly not for a lack of speed. Denny Hamlin’s average finish of 20.33 at this track type is head-scratching, but he’s inside the top 10 in all five NASCAR Insights categories. He did, however, place 13th or worse in all five categories in the spring race at Las Vegas alone, as did Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe. Hamlin also won the pole on Saturday.

Don’t forget about Team Penske, either. At least one of their drivers has won a Round of 8 race in four of the last five years, and that’s paid off as the organization has scored three consecutive titles.

Las Vegas looks like just another stop on the schedule, but save for the championship race itself, Sunday’s 267-lapper is arguably the most important race of the season. A win in the city that never sleeps would allow for a playoff driver to rest soundly with a Championship 4 spot secured and prepare for Phoenix early, as the rest of the title contenders slug it out at Talladega and Martinsville.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRISTOPHER BELL: The four-time winner in 2025 has top fives at Las Vegas in three of the last five races, including runner-ups in the last two fall events. He’s been rock-solid through the playoffs thus far, earning 223 points, second-best only to teammate Chase Briscoe.

DENNY HAMLIN: Though he hasn’t earned the finishes at 1.5-mile tracks this year, Las Vegas has always been a solid track for the No. 11 team. He won the fall race in 2021 and has just one finish worse than 11th in the last six races in Sin City. His 12.78 average finish is ninth-best all-time.

JOEY LOGANO: The three-time champion has won at Las Vegas four times, and his Round of 8 wins in 2022 and 2024 have spearheaded two of the aforementioned titles. He’s earned the fewest points among remaining playoff drivers thus far, but the team’s survive-and-advance mentality can’t be quantified.

CHASE BRISCOE: The only playoff driver without a Championship 4 appearance, Briscoe’s statistically been the best driver this postseason with an average finish of 6.67 in six races. He’s won the pole at the last two 1.5-mile tracks the series has visited, so a strong Saturday could shape up well for Sunday.

ROSS CHASTAIN: Narrowly missing a Round of 8 spot, Chastain’s been sneaky good in the desert. His five top fives in seven Next Gen races are the most of all drivers, and he has the best average finish in that span, despite never scoring a win.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH POINT 400:

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

*(P) denotes playoff driver