Fantasy Fastlane: Playing the percentages in Sin City

After an eventful Round of 12, all eight drivers moving on are NASCAR bluebloods. The cream of the crop has risen to the top in the playoffs, and the 2025 championship will be settled between Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske. Many drivers have coined the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as the second most important race of the playoffs -- possibly of the season -- because should a playoff driver succeed, they get an extra three weeks of emphasis directed toward Championship Weekend at Phoenix Raceway.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-2

Since joining Hendrick in 2021, Larson has won three of the nine races contested at Las Vegas, including two of the last four in runaway fashion. The No. 5 car has led the most laps at 1.5-mile circuits in 2025 (426) and brings momentum into the round with three straight top 10s for the first time since the spring. Larson’s average running position of 8.7 is the best in the field at intermediates this season.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Redemption will be on Bell’s mind this weekend, as he led 155 laps from pole position last year. He was defeated by Joey Logano, stretching the fuel tank and ultimately didn’t advance to the Championship 4. Toyota has won only once (Denny Hamlin, fall 2021) in the last 11 trips to Sin City. But in the most recent visit to a 1.5-mile track at Kansas Speedway, the manufacturer had a stranglehold of the top five entering double overtime.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

The No. 24 team has had a mundane postseason thus far, with only one finish better than ninth through six races (New Hampshire). Byron tends to turn up the wick at Las Vegas, though, as he’s on a series-high five-race streak of consecutive top 10s. In the spring race, he was the lone remaining playoff driver to rank inside the top 10 on speed (second), long-run pace (ninth), passing(fifth), defense (fourth) and restarts (third), according to NASCAR Insights.

MUST START:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Coming up four points shy of advancing to the Round of 8, Chastain and his “unforced errors” from the Charlotte Roval might leave him pondering. He leads the league with a 5.4 average finish in the Next Gen era at Las Vegas, with only one finish worse than seventh. Across the last 10 races at 1.5-mile venues, he has a pair of victories, including the Coca-Cola 600 in May.

SLEEPER PICK:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Uh oh, the sleeping giant powers on. It’s a stretch to consider Logano, the reigning Cup champ and defending race winner, a sleeper, but considering the lack of pace the No. 22 team has shown at intermediate venues in 2025, he fits the bill. His average finish of 9.8 in Sin City is his best at any 1.5-mile track, though, and he ranks as the series’ best defender at these tracks in 2025.

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 30-1

We might as well throw the spring winner in the mix, as Berry captured his first checkered flag in Cup competition in March. Add that to a pair of Xfinity Series victories at Las Vegas in six attempts with JR Motorsports and it’s easy to see why the No. 21 car could be a threat on Sunday. The Wood Bros. have been on an extended cold streak, though, with just four top 10s since win No. 101.

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 110-1

If you want some of that Vegas flair and roll the dice with a driver this weekend, look no further than Allmendinger. His recent Cup record at 1.5-mile tracks is sneaky good, earning five finishes of eighth or better in the last eight events. At this style of track in 2025, he breaks into the top 10 in four of the five key metrics: long-run speed (10th), passing (sixth), defense (third) and restarts (eighth).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Elliott’s has yet to hit the jackpot in Las Vegas. In fact, it’s been his Achilles’ heel for years, with a best finish of ninth in the Next Gen era. His average finish of 19th is his worst among non-drafting tracks. In each of the last two playoff events here, he finished south of 30th.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Wallace was a set of corners away from winning at the most recent 1.5-mile track last month at Kansas. His team owner ran him hard, and the No. 23 dropped to fifth. Las Vegas differs from Kansas, though, and it’s been one of Wallace’s weakest intermediates. While he won the opening stage of this race in 2022 before a run-in with Larson, he has placed inside the top 10 just once in the last 10 races here.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

The hometown driver steps up at Vegas, as Busch’s average finish of 12.1 is his best at all 1.5-mile venues. He’s shown contending speed with RCR in five tries. But with the stretch of races he’s had, I want to avoid using the No. 8 car. In the last 12 races, Busch has a single top 10 (eighth at Darlington) with 10 finishes outside the top 15.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

The battle of powerhouse teammates looms large this weekend, as both are trending in opposite directions. Larson’s 9.4 average finish is the best in track history with a minimum of four starts. Sure, Byron has five straight top 10s, but Larson has race-winning speed nearly every time the series goes to the desert.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Joey Logano

Entering the Round of 8 a lofty 24 points below the cutline, Logano is in must-win mode to make the Championship 4. The largest comeback was Martin Truex Jr. in 2021, entering the Round of 8, 22 points below at the conclusion of the first race in the semifinal round. Bell is ultra consistent at this type of track, piling up 13 top 10s in the last 17 races at 1.5-mile tracks, including a pair of victories. He wants revenge from last fall.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Ryan Blaney

On paper, this seems like it’s a tough matchup, particularly because Blaney has the best long-run speed in the series at 1.5-mile tracks in 2025. Hamlin is third on the list and ranks second in overall speed. The No. 12 team just needs to get through practice, as consecutive practice incidents at Las Vegas have resulted in finishes of 32nd or worse. Hamlin is the more consistent driver here, with seven top 10s in the last 10 visits.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Chase Briscoe

Neither driver's numbers pop off the page for the right reasons. Admittedly, it’s among their weakest tracks, with Briscoe having one top 10 in nine starts. But JGR has been in the hunt frequently here and the No. 19 team is arguably the hottest team in the series with five top 10s in the postseason.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain.

GARAGE: Tyler Reddick.

36 for 36: Flashback three weeks ago at New Hampshire when an audible was called at the last minute to bench Bell in favor of Logano. It paid off mightily, with the No. 22 team scoring its most points for a single race in over two years (52). Bell is the obvious choice this weekend, with three top fives in the last five races at Las Vegas. His 248 laps led are the most he’s paced the field for at a track more than 1-mile in length.