Fantasy Fastlane: Aggression level pegged for Team Penske at Talladega

For the first time in playoff history, the fall race at Talladega Superspeedway is in the Round of 8. The best of the best have reached the Elite Eight, with multiple drivers believing this is the strongest field of eight drivers in playoff history. Denny Hamlin is through to the Championship 4 via his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Team Penske, often the aggressor at superspeedways, enters Talladega in a precarious situation, with both of its playoff cars well below the cutline. The favorite for the race, however, might be the third Penske driver, Austin Cindric, who won here in April.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 10-1

The last 10 Talladega races have been won by different drivers, the longest streak in track history without a repeat winner. Cindric is the most recent driver to adorn garland over his neck after winning here in the spring. While wrecking out of the last two drafting-style events before the halfway point, Cindric remains elite in this type of racing with half of his career top fives (six) coming at superspeedways.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 9-1

An early wreck in Sin City dropped Blaney to last on the playoff grid, and he must overcome a 31-point deficit in the next two races. His other option is to win, which he's done three prior times at Talladega and he was victorious in the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway. Blaney has 11 top-10 finishes in the last 18 drafting races.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

After experiencing a wreck late at Vegas, Byron returns to the track as one of the favorites this weekend. The No. 24 team has five consecutive finishes of seventh or better at Talladega, and his average finish of seventh in the Next Gen era is best in class there. With 150 points earned at drafting tracks in 2025, he is fourth on that list.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Second on the list of points scored at drafting tracks in 2025 is Elliott (173). The No. 9 team has won twice at Talladega, including this race in 2022. Elliott has three consecutive top-10 finishes at drafting-style tracks, including a win at his home venue, EchoPark Speedway.

SLEEPER PICK:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Keselowski is a sleeper because he’s yet to win in the Next Gen car at a superspeedway. The 2012 Cup champion leads active drivers with seven superspeedway wins and is tied with Fireball Roberts for eighth on the overall list. Six of those triumphs have come at NASCAR's largest oval, and he has a trio of runner-up finishes since last winning here in 2021.

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

If I gave you 10 guesses as to who has scored the most points at drafting tracks in 2025, I doubt Larson would make the list. Yet with three finishes of sixth or better, including a second-place outing in April at Talladega, Larson has accumulated the most points with 177. The bugaboo for Larson throughout his career has been superspeedways, as he has 52 starts without a win.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

Hyak Motorsports, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

All four of Stenhouse's Cup wins have come at superspeedways, splitting two apiece at Daytona and Talladega. He enters this weekend as the defending winner, and his 14.4 average finish is third-best among active drivers. His eight top-five and 11 top-10 finishes at Talladega are more than he's had at any other track on the schedule.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 10-1

It would be hard to argue that any driver is more aggressive than Logano at superspeedways. It rewarded him with six victories, including a hat trick at Talladega. However, his triumph last fall at Atlanta is his lone top 10 in the last 12 drafting races. His average finish of 29.1 at Talladega in the Next Gen, including a disqualification in April after taking the checkered flag in fifth, ranks as his worst. That doesn't mean the No. 22 car will not run up front throughout the event, with 228 laps led at superspeedways in 2025 (103 more than any other driver).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

Chase Briscoe said after finishing at Las Vegas that he had a handshake agreement with crew chief James Small to run at the back of the pack at Talladega had he won. This could be a strategy Hamlin implements now that he's locked into the Championship 4. Either way, his recent drafting-track performances have been dreadful with only a pair of top 10s in the last 11 races. With limited uses, hold off on rostering the No. 11 car.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Hanging on for the victory last spring at Talladega is Reddick's only highlight at Talladega in recent history. Outside of that win, he has finished 14th or worse in seven of the last eight Talladega races. On the positive outlook, the No. 45 team has four finishes of sixth or better in the last nine drafting races.

MY LINEUP: Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

GARAGE: Erik Jones.

36 for 36: With only Riley Herbst, Austin Dillon and Blaney available to use over the final three weeks of the season, the decision is simple for Talladega. Sure, Blaney could go out and win, but he could also finish dead last like last weekend at Las Vegas for something out of his control. Dillon is stout on short, flat tracks. That leaves Herbst, who has stood out on superspeedways, as the pick. He was in the mix to win this race in 2023 while driving a partial schedule.