Fantasy Fastlane: Starting from the bottom of the playoff grid

The Championship 4 will be set after 500 tough laps around the scenic Martinsville Speedway. The eight remaining playoff drivers are on another level at the famed "Paperclip." The three powerhouse organizations still alive in the championship hunt -- Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske -- have combined to win the last 14 races at the 0.526-mile bullring. Seven of the eight playoff drivers have previously won at Martinsville, and 27 of the combined 35 top-five finishes in the Next Gen era at Martinsville belong to this group. The best of the best rise to the occasion.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 4-1

The final stint at Talladega Superspeedway went haywire for Team Penske, leaving Blaney in a must-win scenario for the second time in three seasons entering the fall Martinsville race. The 2023 Cup champion's numbers are among the elite at Martinsville, winning the last two fall races and collecting nine top-five and 10 top-10 finishes in the last 13 races. He has torched the field on short tracks in 2025, earning 47 more points than the second-highest driver (Brad Keselowski). An 8.5 average finish is good enough for third all-time with a minimum of six starts.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-2

It's been a brutal season for the No. 9 team at the small venues, with just 96 points earned in 2025 at short tracks. That's 49 points fewer than any other playoff driver (Joey Logano is next with 145). Nearly half of those points came in the spring Martinsville race (46), where the No. 9 team has three consecutive top fives. The 2020 Cup champion has led 42-plus laps in eight of the previous 10 Martinsville events, four times crossing the century mark. His 1,275 laps led are the most at any circuit.

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 17-2

For the last several years, Logano has defined consistency at Martinsville. The No. 22 team has 12 straight top-10 finishes at "the Paperclip," the fourth-longest streak ever. However, he hasn't won at Martinsville since 2018. The one invariable among these three teams is that they need to win and could elect to forego stage points should a strategy call benefit them for the following stage.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

With only one Hamlin start remaining, it's a toss-up on whether he will be used this weekend or for the championship race at Phoenix Raceway. The No. 11 pilot dominated the spring race, leading 274 laps en route to his sixth victory at the track. Hamlin leads all drivers in laps led at Martinsville (735) during the Next Gen era.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

Martinsville is among Wallace's best tracks on the schedule, posting five finishes of 11th or better in his last six attempts. On pure pace, Wallace ranks third in 2025 on short tracks on the short- and long-run, according to NASCAR Insights. He sits at the top of the chart in passing and restarts.

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 30-1

Racing through the ranks, Berry was known as a short-track stud, and he earned his first Xfinity Series victory at Martinsville in 2021. He led 40 laps in the spring before a mechanical gremlin set in, dropping the No. 21 car four laps down. Berry ranks second in long-run speed on short tracks in 2025 and cracks the top five in passing.

SLEEPER PICK:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 45-1

On paper, this seems like a surprising pick. Keselowski hasn't scored a top five at Martinsville since the fall 2021 event. Six of his seven finishes in the Next Gen car here have been 17th or worse. But in the five short-track races this year, Keselowski ranks second in points tallied (170), only trailing Blaney. It could be a boom or bust weekend for the No. 6 team.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

Reddick enters Martinsville with four consecutive top 10s in 2025, his longest streak of the season. Unfortunately for the No. 45 driver, Martinsville is arguably his weakest track. Reddick has finished 26th or worse in the last three playoff races here and has just a pair of top 10s through 11 starts.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 55-1

The two-time Martinsville winner has seen better days here than with the Next Gen car, posting an average finish of 20.7 in those seven races. Dating back to the spring 2019 race, he's led just five of the last 6,119 laps run at the track. Since joining RCR, he has a single top 10 at short tracks (Richmond 2023).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 55-1

Buescher is a proven short-track winner, scoring victories at both Bristol Motor Speedway and Richmond Raceway. His Martinsville numbers, though, leave a lot to be desired. He only has two top 10s in 20 starts, with a best effort of eighth in 2023.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Larson

It cannot be stated enough that this could be the matchup of the year. Should a driver from below the cutline win, all eyes are on a heads-up points battle between these two. Bell advanced to his first Championship 4 through winning at Martinsville in 2022, while Larson has finished sixth or better in the last six races here. Given Bell only has two career top fives at "the Paperclip," Larson gets the nod.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Ryan Blaney

Team Penske enters Martinsville in a precarious situation, knowing it would take an all-out miracle to get both drivers through to Phoenix. Both drivers are elite here, though Blaney is the hottest driver in the series at this track. The No. 12 car might need long, green-flag runs, but he enters the weekend as the favorite to win.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. William Byron

The mission is simple for this Hendrick duo: win. Martinsville is Elliott's best short track, despite having a single victory. Sure, Byron has captured a pair of checkered flags, but the No. 24 team has had erratic finishes. Take ol' reliable Elliott this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Briscoe

While both drivers have secured a Championship 4 spot, they could still factor into the Championship 4 cast. After winning at Talladega, Briscoe admitted he will be rooting against Penske at Martinsville. The No. 19 team has been stout at Martinsville with Martin Truex Jr., and Briscoe himself has seven top-10 finishes in the last eight races. Among active drivers, Hamlin is unmatched at Martinsville, so he gets the hedge of stopping the Penske brigade. Not planning to have the No. 11 car in my lineup, though, with one use left.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson. 

GARAGE: Chase Briscoe.

36 for 36: After the closing laps at Talladega went awry, Blaney warned about automatically picking him to win at Martinsville. His exact words were: "The people that have been saying, 'Oh, Blaney is going to win Martinsville.' It's [expletive]." Welp, I'm all in on the No. 12 team this weekend. It's either this weekend or next at Phoenix. But to be a threat for the championship, he needs to win.