Fantasy Fastlane: Championship 4 drivers and Team Penske or bust at Phoenix

Nine months of competition come to a head this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. Each of the Championship 4 drivers are former winners in the Sonoran Desert, though only Kyle Larson is a previous Cup champion among the bunch. It’s about as even of four teams that one could dream of with all the marbles on the line (Denny Hamlin, Larson, William Byron have an average finish separated by 0.2 spots at Phoenix). Meanwhile, Team Penske will look to avenge missing out on this year’s title, as the organization has dominated the last three Phoenix fall races en route to being crowned champions. 

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

NOTE: Championship 4 drivers will earn stage points for your lineups on Sunday.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

Hamlin will make his fifth Championship 4 appearance on Sunday, tied for the second-most since the playoff format debuted in 2014. Of the four drivers vying for the championship, Hamlin has the best average finish at 10.6. He finished runner-up to JGR teammate Christopher Bell at Phoenix earlier this year, and he has a series-high 17 top-five and 23 top-10 finishes among active drivers at the 1-mile oval. 

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

If you’re a believer in momentum, Byron should be your pick entering the weekend (he’s mine). The 27-year-old led a career-high 304 laps at Martinsville Speedway last weekend and had the drive of his career, HMS Vice Chairman Jeff Gordon said. Byron has finished sixth or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, including a 2023 win. He has nine top 10s in 15 Phoenix starts with an average finish of 10.8. 

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

In between Hamlin and Byron on the list of career average finishing positions is Larson at 10.7. His Phoenix highlight is hoisting the 2021 Bill France Cup. Larson has 10 top-five and 14 top-10 finishes in the “Valley of the Sun,” ranking as his best among all Cup venues. The No. 5 team has finished fourth or better in four of the last five visits to Phoenix. One cause for concern is Larson is on a 23-race winless streak, tied for his longest while wearing the Hendrick colors (2022). Tony Stewart is the only driver to win the championship without winning one of the 10 playoff races (2005). 

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Even after Blaney missed out on battling for the 2025 championship, don’t fool yourself and think he’s going to phone it in. The No. 12 team has seven top-five efforts in the last eight Phoenix races, including being crowned the 2023 Cup champion. Four of those have been runner-up results, all coming in the last six tries. Blaney ranks as having the most speed, long-run pace and the best passer at comparable tracks in 2025. Unfortunately for me, I have no usage remaining for Byron, Larson or Blaney. Oof. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Briscoe should be in the must-start category and will be featured in my lineup on Sunday. But compared to his fellow Championship 4 contestants, his numbers have been scattered in nine Phoenix starts. He has cracked the top 10 on four occasions, including his first Cup win in 2022. The other five races have all been finishes of 22nd or worse, including a DNF in the spring. On a positive note, Briscoe has been the best finishing of the four drivers at Phoenix the most times in nine races (three).

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 30-1

Away from the championship battle, don’t overlook Buescher at Phoenix. The No. 17 team has four consecutive top 10s here, including a trio of top fives. The four top 10s in a row is his longest active streak at any venue.

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 25-1

It’s apparent that the Penske flat-track program is among the best in the series, which includes the No. 21 team. Berry finished fourth at Phoenix in the spring, and it’s one of the three tracks that he has multiple top 10s at in Cup (Richmond Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway). Berry ranks seventh in the field on speed and long-run speed at flat tracks in 2025 and is the fourth-best passer.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Given Chastain’s recent performance at Phoenix, including a runner-up finish in the championship battle in 2022 and following it up with a win in 2023, he could be in sleeper mode this weekend. However, this is a different No. 1 team from then, as it has lacked results in 2025. His fourth-place finish at Martinsville was his first top five since winning the Coca-Cola 600 in May.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 45-1

It’s been a postseason to forget for Bowman, as the No. 48 team has a best finish of seventh at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with only one additional top 10 (eighth at Bristol). The shining moment for the Arizona native at his home track came nearly a decade ago, subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr., leading 194 laps from the pole. Since then, it’s been miserable with just two top 10s in the last 15 races. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Of the Penske drivers, Cindric is the only driver who has lacked results at Phoenix. He has a best finish of 11th in seven Cup tries with an average finish of 23.3. The No. 2 team only has a pair of top 10s since winning in April at Talladega. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Briscoe vs. Denny Hamlin

By winning the first two races in the Round of 8, the JGR duo had an extra week – or two in Hamlin’s case – to hone in on Phoenix. While Briscoe will be a force this weekend, the numbers back Hamlin, as it’s among his best tracks. The lone fear for the No. 11 team is he hasn’t won here since 2019.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Kyle Larson

This is a brutal matchup, as Byron and Larson are separated by 0.1 in average finishing position throughout their respective careers at Phoenix. It would be a storybook ending for Larson to win the championship after experiencing an extended slump throughout the 2025 season. My money is on Byron, though, as he’s making his third straight Championship 4 appearance. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Joey Logano

The beginning of the 2025 season for the No. 1 team was remembered for Chastain outperforming the speed of his car. However, Logano could arguably be the favorite for the win this weekend, as he’s won this race and the championship in two of the last three seasons. The No. 22 team has finished on the podium in five of the last 11 Phoenix events. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Christopher Bell

These are two drivers thinking about what could have been from the outside looking in this weekend. Bell has won two of the last three Phoenix races, while Blaney has done everything but win a race in the desert. Given the consistent winning speed the No. 12 brings to flat tracks, he should have the advantage.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Chris Buescher

36 for 36: Truthfully, I’m kicking myself as Austin Dillon was my original pick for Richmond in August. When Ryan Preece won the pole, I flipped to using the No. 60 car. Naturally, the No. 3 car won the race. That leaves me stuck with using Dillon this weekend at Phoenix, which hasn’t been a stellar track for him in recent years. His last top 10 here came seven years ago but does have three top 15s in the last six tries. Taking the optimistic approach.