NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 25 NASCAR Cup Series drivers set to compete for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship before Wednesday’s Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium (6 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott enters as the defending winner.
(Editor’s note: Season highs and season lows reflect the 2025 Cup Series season.)
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Analysis: Larson claimed his second Cup Series championship to close out 2025, winning the title despite not leading a single lap at Phoenix after capitalizing on a late caution and two-tire pit stop strategy. He and the No. 5 team looked championship-capable for most of last year despite some turbulent internal challenges, so the final result wasn’t a total surprise. There’s little, if any, reason to think the California native can’t repeat and join Joey Logano as the sport’s only active three-time champions later this year.
Analysis: Hamlin turned in one of his most dominant seasons in 2025, netting six wins and nearly capturing his first title after leading 208 of 312 laps in the championship race, yet fell heartbreakingly short when a late caution and tire strategy gamble cost him in overtime. As a co-favorite for the 2026 title, No. 11 will need to shake off a difficult conclusion to last season but should return to the Cup Series elite tier set to battle for glory once more.
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Analysis: Byron entered last year with high expectations and still exceeded them — from the jump — by winning the Daytona 500 for a second straight year and later claiming his first Regular Season Championship en route to a third straight Championship 4 appearance. Entering 2026 as a worthy contender with sustained consistency that should benefit him in a revamped Chase format, Byron remains a top threat despite once again not closing the deal in last year’s finale.
Analysis: Bell’s four-win 2025 campaign — three of which came in consecutive weeks — included dominant performances, but an elimination from the Round of 8 at Martinsville ended his Championship 4 hopes in deflating fashion despite entering 37 points above the cutline. His 2026 outlook remains strong in a return to The Chase given his regular-season excellence, though he’ll need better execution down the stretch after fizzling out a bit over the years.
Analysis: Blaney’s four-win 2025 season set a career high, scoring the fourth in a most unlikely and dramatic victory by claiming the championship race itself after being eliminated from title contention just a week earlier. The veteran continually ups his game year-to-year, and there’s an excellent chance No. 12 will turn in another championship-capable season in 2026 as one of the sport’s most consistent points earners.
Analysis: Briscoe dramatically exceeded expectations in his first Joe Gibbs Racing season, securing three wins (Pocono, Darlington, Talladega) and making his first — and what wound up being his only — Championship 4 appearance. An 18th-place finish at Phoenix in the title race dampened the pomp and circumstance a tad, but his 2026 prospects appear bright entering Year 2 with the elite organization.
Analysis: Elliott’s two-win 2025 represents solid but unspectacular performance from a Hendrick driver many expect to challenge for the title annually. Qualifying struggles early in the season (16.1 average start versus his career 11.17 mark) limited front-of-the-field consistency, though late-season improvements hinted at a potential turnaround entering 2026. Elliott’s championship window is still wide open, but he isn’t pouring on the wins as he did early in his career. Perhaps a return to a points-based format will help arguably the sport’s most consistent driver.
Analysis: Logano missed the Championship 4 in 2025 — keeping in line with his impossible to ignore even-year-excellence — his single win paling in comparison to the four he turned in during a 2024 title run, albeit with a better average finish. With an even year upon us and the three-time champ sporting a fresh, aerodynamically suited look, keep an eye on Logano potentially paving the path to a landmark fourth title this season for one of the few drivers left with Chase experience.
Analysis: Buescher’s 2025 mirrored his 2024 performance almost precisely, crystallizing RFK Racing’s mid-pack plateau as he narrowly missed the playoffs once again. Buescher and the No. 17 group were some of the strongest out there during the postseason, however, and it’s hard to see how the veteran’s above-average consistency doesn’t keep him in the championship picture this season as RFK continues to build itself into the elite class and NASCAR moves to a potentially beneficial format for the Ford-based team.
Analysis: We now know that Reddick was racing in 2025 under some difficult personal circumstances, so it’s fair to assume he’ll only improve his numbers in 2026, but No. 45’s winless year was a significant dropoff after his 2024 Championship 4 appearance. The talent and engineering haven’t gone anywhere, however, so it would surprise no one to see No. 45 get back on his horse in the upcoming season and return to prominence as a weekly contender.
Analysis: Wallace culled together his best season yet, outpacing his teammate and claiming his first crown jewel with a clutch Brickyard 400 victory. The late bloomer continues to grind and shape himself into a weekly stalwart, and Wallace could be a force throughout his 30s with a legitimate shot at championship contention coming as soon as 2026.
Analysis: Though it was an impressive one, Chastain’s sole 2025 victory in the Coca-Cola 600 and lack of results otherwise prompted Trackhouse Racing to replace crew chief Phil Surgen with Brandon McSwain heading into this year, signaling organizational acknowledgment that performance fell short despite functional equipment. His 15.8 average finish showed stability without the flash we’re used to seeing from him, so perhaps Chastain puts it all back together in 2026 with an offseason to recuperate and a format he can thrive in.
Analysis: Non-winners typically don’t tend to stick around Hendrick Motorsports for too long, and Bowman has just one trip to Victory Lane in the past three seasons, while turning in his worst career average finish (17.4) this past year. That said, he was finding the front of the field to a degree, with his 165 laps led marking his highest tally since a career-best 440 in 2020, but this year could be a make-or-break campaign for him.
Analysis: SVG lit the NASCAR world on fire in 2025 and enters 2026 as one of the sport’s biggest enigmas — is he a one-trick pony who can only win on road courses, or is his oval development proceeding quickly enough to deem him worthy of serious title contention in a format that doesn’t offer Chase spots via wins? He’s a world-class driver and big-time champion in his past life, so odds are good that he’ll take things up a notch even further next year, and if that’s the case, the rest of the garage could have a problem on its hands.
Analysis: Preece’s move to RFK Racing’s new third car came along with genuine progress from 2024’s final days of Stewart-Haas Racing, earning recognition as one of NASCAR’s most improved drivers despite the challenges that accompany adding an additional entry. The arrow is pointing very much up on Preece, who may finally have the equipment capable of displaying his much-talked-about talent behind the wheel.
Analysis: Keselowski’s 2025 results marked a bit of a step back after playoff appearances each of the two seasons prior, as he now enters Year 5 of his driver/owner journey with just one win to show for it thus far and with a bit of a hurdle as he works his way back from injury. A strong playoff run — despite being on the outside looking in — included a runner-up in the championship finale, and there’s a great chance everything is still clicking for Keselowski and RFK when racing returns to a similar format that produced his lone title in 2012.
Analysis: Gibbs’ winless campaign underperformed expectations for a Joe Gibbs Racing prospect in his third full season, and in some ways was a bit of a step back despite 304 laps led. There were some glimmers of strong execution throughout the season, but a potential fourth winless season in 2026 would certainly put Gibbs on the hot seat, family ties or not, with so many up-and-coming, talented drivers in the Toyota pipeline. A hot start to 2026 would do wonders here.
Analysis: Cindric turned in a worse average finish than a season ago, but he felt like more of a championship contender last year and should continue to steadily improve in title-capable equipment. Just two top fives in 2025 (one of which was a superspeedway win) offer a bit of concern, but being in a three-man stable with a pair of champions in Blaney and Logano will eventually pay significant dividends as he enters Year 5.
Analysis: Busch’s second consecutive winless season marked his first points finish outside the top 20 across two decades as a full-time Cup driver; a historic decline for one of NASCAR’s most legendary competitors. Just three top fives across 36 starts also marked a career low, sparking Richard Childress Racing to install new crew chief Jim Pohlman to work with the two-time champ this season. Breaking a career-long winless streak still appears possible in 2026, but the days of dominance for “Rowdy” may unfortunately be a thing of the past. If anybody could prove that notion wrong, however, it’s Busch.
Analysis: McDowell’s maiden season with Spire Motorsports brought more of the same, with a winless 2025 looking much the same as his final year with Front Row Motorsports, albeit without the six poles (though he still had two). Now comfortable in his new digs, look for McDowell to continue building out this program as the veteran leader in the shop, and to benefit from fresh teammate insights from Daniel Suárez, who joins the fold for 2026.
Analysis: Berry’s Las Vegas victory with Wood Brothers Racing marked improvement from his 2024 rookie season (which closed at 27th in points), and he got a taste of the playoffs — even if it will go down as arguably the worst first round any driver experienced in the history of the now-defunct format. Expect Berry’s short-track stature and ties with Team Penske to continue his development into 2026 and beyond as he rounds into a competitive driver on a weekly basis who could be a sleeper Chase threat.
Analysis: Dillon’s Richmond victory clinched his playoff position, but just five top 10s on the year certainly aren’t included in a recipe that cooks up a long and prosperous postseason run, nor one that would lead to a profitable Chase stretch. With a handful of wins to his name, some of them of the high-profile kind, Dillon can clearly hit his spots when the factors align, but we’ve yet to see any degree of consistency across a lengthy Cup career.
Analysis: Hocevar’s 2025 sophomore season produced zero wins with two runner-up finishes (EchoPark near Atlanta, Nashville) and a 23rd-place points finish, representing modest progress from his 2024 Rookie of the Year campaign. His nine top-10s suggested development continuation for this driver clearly on the rise, but a win in 2026 will likely be necessary to continue that upward trajectory and hot-prospect status.
Analysis: Nemechek’s return to the Cup Series the past two years hasn’t resulted in much fruit-bearing, but you can tell the seeds have been sown for a bountiful harvest down the line, perhaps as soon as this year. Legacy Motor Club is probably in its final days of fitting the foundational puzzle pieces together, and it’s high time to start to be consistently competitive. Nemechek, under the tutelage of NASCAR Hall of Famer Jimmie Johnson, could take a big leap forward this year.
Analysis: Zilisch dominated the 2025 NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series with 10 wins and the Regular Season Championship despite losing the title race to Jesse Love, establishing him as the most decorated prospect entering Cup competition. His 2026 Trackhouse Racing rookie season driving the No. 88 Chevrolet features support from veteran crew chief Randall Burnett, and it’ll be interesting to see if he battles his now-teammate SVG for wins on road courses (and beyond?) in 2026.