Racing Insights: Defending champion Larson projected to win 68th Daytona 500

The numbers are in.

Racing Insights’ projection model has churned through what we’ve seen at Daytona International Speedway on track this week, superspeedway history, 2026 team strengths and anticipated performance to forecast how the 2026 Daytona 500 could shake out. The ‘Great American Race’ rarely follows the script, but if the data is any indiation, here’s how the field stacks up entering Sunday’s 68th running of the Daytona 500 (1:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: The model’s projected winner, and it would be a big one. Larson tops the board entering Sunday, and while superspeedways are notoriously unpredictable — particularly for him — the 2025 champ’s form during Speedweeks, team strength and overall speed make him the benchmark. The driver of the No. 5 could take home his first Harley J. Earl, and complete his crown-jewel grand slam.

JOEY LOGANO: Daytona is often his playground. Logano’s drafting IQ and late-race aggression consistently put him in the mix, and the projection has him inside the top five. In a race that often comes down to timing the final move, few are better.

CHRIS BUESCHER: Don’t overlook him. The model puts Buescher in that mid-field pack, slotting him comfortably inside the top 15, but he could rise should late-race chaos strike. RFK Racing has shown superspeedway muscle, and Buescher’s patience in the pack could pay off in the closing laps.

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RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR DAYTONA 500:

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Posted on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.