Predicting who will advance in Chase's Round of 8

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Surprised to see Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. ousted from the Round of 12 and no longer in contention for the championship?

So were we, but that’s the nature of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs, where teams that were good all season can be undone by one bad race.

Is that fair?

Yes, in the sense that NASCAR’s playoffs are a lot like other sports’ postseasons: Teams need to perform well in order to get there, then turn their game up a notch to be able to close the deal. (Right, Cubs or Indians fans?)

And sometimes that’s not even good enough if another competitor is at the top of their game and happens to be performing at a notch just above. (Right, Buffalo Bills fans?)

Not fair in the sense that the racing gods weren’t in favor of Keselowski and Truex Jr. at Talladega. For example, it must have been difficult for Keselowski’s playoffs to end mostly because of some trash that got stuck to his grille and contributed to rising engine temperatures. (Hey, was that a smashed up Bojangles’ cup latched onto the front of his car?)

Whatever the case, it’s time to move on and discuss the drivers who are still left in the Round of 8. It’s an elite group that includes five former champions and drivers who all have recorded at least one win this season. Like the previous two rounds, this one will be tough to predict, so we’ll roll up our sleeves and get to work trying to sort out the razor-thin differences within this group.

A reminder on our numbers: We’ve looked at average finish and laps led in the following categories for each Chase driver: 1. Season stats, 2. Last five races and 3. History at Round of 8 tracks. This way, we feel like we’ve accounted for who has done consistently well this season versus who is hot now versus who has some good experience under his belt.

Let’s look at results for average finish, then we’ll move on to laps led before unveiling the final prediction:

Average Finish

How we got the numbers: We assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: average finish this season, average finish in the last five races and average finish at the Round of 8 tracks. For example, if a driver was tops in average finish this season, he got 8 points; second place got 7 points and so on down to last place, which got one point. Then, we added up the point values each driver earned in the three categories to arrive at the above list. Here are the top two drivers and bottom two drivers in each category:

Average finish this season:
Leaders: 1. Kevin Harvick (10.1), 2. Joey Logano (11.3).
Followers: 7. Jimmie Johnson (14.1), 8. Matt Kenseth (14.2).

Average finish last five races:
Leaders: 1. Jimmie Johnson (8.6), 2. Kurt Busch (9.0).
Followers: 7. Denny Hamlin (14.4), 8. Kevin Harvick (16.8).

Average finish at Round of 8 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Jimmie Johnson (7.9), 2. Denny Hamlin (10.9).
Followers: 7. Joey Logano (15.4), 8. Kurt Busch (16.6).

Analysis: ‘Six-Time’ is primed for a run at No. 7 (and we don’t mean Regan Smith). … Kurt Busch is quietly taking care of business (well, at least until his scrape with teammate Kevin Harvick last weekend). Busch is ranked third in average finish this season, in addition to placing second in average finish for the past five races. But in order to advance he’ll need to overcome his history at the Round of 8 tracks, which is the worst out of the remaining Chase drivers. … A handful of the Round of 8 drivers have had a bad race in the past five weeks, but Harvick has been the most up-and-down with wins at Loudon and Kansas sandwiched around 37th- and 38th-place finishes at Dover and Charlotte — and a seventh-place showing at Talladega.

Now, let’s take a look at how the drivers fared in laps led.

Laps Led

How we got the numbers: Same as with average finish, we assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: laps led this season, laps led in the last five races and laps led at the Round of 8 tracks. Then, we added up the point values to arrive at the above list. Here are the top two drivers and bottom two drivers in each category:

Laps led this season:
Leaders: 1. Kyle Busch (1,373), 2. Kevin Harvick (1,305).
Followers: 7. Joey Logano (440), 8. Kurt Busch (238).

Laps led last five races:
Leaders: 1. Matt Kenseth (227), 2. Jimmie Johnson (155).
Followers: 7. Joey Logano (50), 8. Kurt Busch (1).

Laps led at Round of 8 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Jimmie Johnson (4,746), 2. Kevin Harvick (2,228).
Followers: 7. Carl Edwards (1,151), 8. Joey Logano (750).

Analysis: Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps at Martinsville and Texas among the Round of 8 drivers. Kevin Harvick, of course, is the king of Phoenix. … In the past five races, Matt Kenseth twice has led the most laps among Round of 8 drivers (Loudon, Kansas), but he didn’t get the victory in either case. … It might surprise you to know that Carl Edwards is third in laps led for the season at 835. Most of that work came early in the season when he led 551 laps in a three-race span (Texas, Bristol, Richmond) when he also collected his two victories for the year.

FINAL PREDICTION

Final prediction: What a Championship 4 group this would be with the past two champions (Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick) matching up against the six-time champ (Jimmie Johnson). Plus, Matt Kenseth would be trying to capture his first tile since 2003, before the Chase era. Let’s see how it all plays out starting this weekend at Martinsville Speedway (1 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).