Racing Insights: Will Chevrolet, Ford stop Toyota’s Michigan dominance?

In the last two trips to the Irish Hills region, Toyota claimed victories in the NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan International Speedway with Tyler Reddick (2024) and Denny Hamlin (2025), the two drivers who currently sit atop the standings.

With the 2-mile track located near the Motor City, Chevrolet and Ford will look to stop Toyota’s dominance in their own backyard in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

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Will Toyota’s two-year Michigan run come to an end, or will Chevrolet get its first win at Michigan since 2017? Here’s a look at other drivers to keep an eye on and the full projected results for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race.

DRIVERS TO WATCH:

DENNY HAMLIN: Returning to the Irish Hills as the defending Cup race winner, Hamlin picked up where he left off last year by snagging the Busch Light Pole Award. However, the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will have to come from the rear of the field with the team electing to fix damage to the car’s underbody caused by a flat left-rear tire during practice. Given that Hamlin overcame a violation for jumping the start of last Sunday’s race at Nashville Superspeedway from pole and drove his way back to the win, he might be able to pull off an encore comeback drive at the 2-mile Michigan track. The 45-year-old driver also has eight straight top 10s at Michigan, so the No. 11 Toyota will likely be a contender despite the setback and potentially give Toyota its third consecutive victory in the Irish Hills.

CARSON HOCEVAR: With Chevrolet seeking its first Michigan win since August 2017 with Kyle Larson, Hocevar might be one of the Chevrolet drivers capable of getting the job done. The Spire Motorsports driver, who grew up 85 miles away in Portage, Michigan, is looking to become the first Michigan-born driver to win at the 2-mile track in the Irish Hills. In two career Cup starts at Michigan, Hocevar has a best finish of 10th in 2024. However, this is the first time Hocevar has visited his home track as a Cup race winner after earning his first premier series victory earlier this year at Talladega Superspeedway. Given his newfound place in the garage, rising stardom and an improved Spire program, Hocevar might pick up career win No. 2 after qualifying on the front row.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: Like Hocevar, Keselowski also wants to become the first Michigan-born driver to visit Victory Lane in the Irish Hills. Keselowski has come close to winning his home race on multiple occasions, finishing runner-up three times in his career. Despite a disappointing 26th-place qualifying effort, the driver of the No. 6 RFK Racing Ford usually runs well at Michigan. Keselowski has finished inside the top 10 in his last three races in the Irish Hills. With teammate Chris Buescher the top Ford qualifier in 14th, there is clearly some speed to unlock in the RFK Fords, so maybe all hope is not lost for Keselowski to finally get his home-state breakthrough.

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FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400 (3 p.m. ET, Prime Video)