O’Reilly Series: Analyzing Chase bubble before Sonoma

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series is on the doorstep of the postseason.

Just six regular-season races remain until the field of 12 drivers is solidified for the 2026 Chase for the championship. Justin Allgaier became the first driver to clinch a spot in the field two weeks ago at Pocono, but the bubble remains hotter than ever -- just 37 points separate 10th through 14th in the series ranks.

As the series heads to Sonoma Raceway this Saturday (5:30 p.m. ET, The CW, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), take a look at the bubble and some of the key numbers that could define who will battle for a title. 

RELATED: O'Reilly Series standings | Sonoma weekend schedule

8. Sammy Smith (+100)

Smith has generally been the model of consistency in 2026, but with as hot as JR Motorsports is, he's yet to breakthrough with a win this season. His 10 top-10 finishes are tied for fifth most in the series, and according to Racing Insights, Smith is projected to finish the regular season at 127 points above the cutline if he continues averaging 30 points per race. It's been 16 races since his last DNF, and all signs point toward Smith continuing this above-average pace into the Chase. If he starts capitalizing on stage points, he'll be golden. 

9. Parker Retzlaff (+51)

One of the most impressive stories this season, Retzlaff continues to outpunch his weight class driving Viking Motorsports' No. 99 Chevrolet. He's shown speed everywhere, and has just three finishes of 15th or worse. Per Racing Insights, Retzlaff will end the regular season ninth and 62 markers above the cutline if he continues averaging 27 points per race. 

10. Taylor Gray (+33)

Gray has battled plenty of on-track adversity, but his 10th most stage points and a spring win at Kansas have him above the cutline for now. According to Racing Insights, Gray's had just five incident-free races this season, a year plagued by accidents and issues on pit road. When things are going right, the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team is one of the most dangerous in the series. If they clean things up, he'll be safe. 

11. Sam Mayer (+33)

After a tough start to 2026, Mayer has rocketed himself back into Chase contention with a stout stretch of races. Even though a crash took him out early last weekend in San Diego, consecutive fourth-place finishes at Nashville and Pocono have him now gained 26 points on the cut over the last three weeks. He's suffered issues in 11 of 18 races according to Racing Insights, but the ship slowly seems headed in the right direction for the eight-time series winner. 

12. William Sawalich (+5)

Sawalich scored his first career series victory in April at Rockingham, but it's otherwise been an inconsistent season for the native Minnesotan. With back-to-back finishes outside the top 20 and Brent Crews on the rise (see next slide), Racing Insights projects Sawalich will miss the Chase if he continues averaging just 25 points per race. He's lost 37 points to the cut over this two-race slide and needs a solid stretch to solidify his spot in the postseason. 

13. Brent Crews (-5)

Crews had to miss four races earlier this season due to age restrictions, but he's coming in hot. He's finished inside the top 10 in nine of his 14 races, and has had opportunities to win in most of them. Crews is averaging 32 points per race according to Racing Insights, tied for sixth best in the series. He's erased 84 points since Rockingham, and all signs point toward this 18-year-old not just making the Chase, but as a dark horse title contender. 

14. Rajah Caruth (-9)

In his first O'Reilly Series season, Caruth has spent time in multiple rides, primarily driving JR Motorsports' No. 88 Chevrolet but also piloting the Jordan Anderson Racing No. 32 Chevrolet. Fortunately for Caruth, he'll be with JRM for all but two remaining races this season, including Saturday at Sonoma. In 10 races driving the No. 88 car, he's gained 31 points to the cutline, compared to losing 40 while in the No. 32. His 11th most stage points have certainly helped this year, but he'll need to piece together strong runs across both cars to finish the regular season inside the top 12. 

15. Ryan Sieg (-27)

Sieg is one of the best at taking care of his equipment, and has finished each of the last 15 races. His average finish is nearly four spots better than a season ago, but Racing Insights currently projects that he'll miss the Chase. But with a pair of drafting tracks remaining, those could be his best opportunities to close the points gap, even though he shows speed at all types of tracks. And maybe if he can chip into the defecit, that elusive first win won't be far behind it.