Editor’s Note: Keep tabs on this page for lineup advice following qualifying, including changes you should consider.
With a historic weekend at Naval Base Coronado in the rearview, the final road-course race of the season has quickly arrived. Despite an early exit in San Diego, Shane van Gisbergen remains the driver to beat whenever the series turns right and left, ranking as the fastest car once again, according to NASCAR Insights. Van Gisbergen believes a handful — perhaps even 10 — drivers have the speed to challenge him for the win this weekend. Let’s take a closer look at the top contenders, along with some first-round matchups in the 2026 In-Season Challenge.
Returning to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.
RELATED: NASCAR Fantasy Live hub | Play 36 for 36
MUST START
Driver: Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 8
Comment: With a DNF at San Diego, SVG’s track record dropped oh so significantly on road courses, now running inside the top five for 79% of laps and the top 10 for 90% of laps on road courses since the start of 2025. Joking aside, he has had the fastest car in nine of his 15 starts on road courses and obliterated the field at Sonoma last year, leading 97 of 110 circuits.
Driver: Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 6
Comment: While McDowell is still chasing his first checkered flag at Sonoma, he leads the league with a 4.0 average finish in the Next Gen car in Wine Country. He also has the best average finish in the field across the first three road course races in 2026 at 5.67.
Driver: Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 6
Comment: Elliott remains winless at Sonoma through nine attempts, but his three straight top-five and five consecutive top-10 finishes at the Napa Valley track are the longest such streaks in the series. His 10.2 average finish is the best of all active drivers with multiple Sonoma starts.
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Driver: Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Selections remaining: 7
Comment: As Wallace pondered at San Diego, was that Bubba Hamilton on display last week en route to a runner-up finish? Wallace has improved greatly at road courses, but Sonoma remains a pitfall. He has a best finish of 14th in seven Sonoma trips, with an average finish of 24.0.
Driver: Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Selections remaining: 2
Comment: Hamlin has had respectable showings in the three road-course races in 2026, placing anywhere from 10th to 16th. Sonoma, however, has been his kryptonite in recent years, finishing 20th or worse in all four Next Gen starts, with three of those being 31st on back. The No. 2 seed in the In-Season Challenge could be on upset alert against Ty Dillon once again.
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Driver: AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: With a fifth-place outing at San Diego, Allmendinger is within 21 points of The Chase bubble with nine races remaining in the regular season. Only he and McDowell have snagged top 10s in all three road-course races in 2026. Allmendinger has finished sixth in two of the last three Sonoma races.
Driver: Ryan Preece, RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford
Selections remaining: 10
Comment: Preece tied Allmendinger for the most points earned at San Diego (45), and being the provisional bubble driver, he will be chasing points again at Sonoma. He has a best effort of 12th in five Sonoma races, but an 18.6 average finish ranks as his best among active road courses with multiple starts. Unfortunately for the In-Season Challenge, however, he goes against SVG. Better luck next year!
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Daniel Suárez vs. Todd Gilliland
Pick: Gilliland
Comment: All four matchups are In-Season Challenge battles, and this is a doozy. The 2022 victory from Suárez is his lone top 10 in eight Sonoma starts. Meanwhile, Gilliland is often hanging around at road courses, with five top 10s in 26 starts. This is tough, but let’s take the upset.
Chase Briscoe vs. AJ Allmendinger
Pick: Briscoe
Comment: While drivers rely heavily on the sim, Kaulig Racing doesn’t have that luxury as it is not aligned with a Cup manufacturer in 2026. Allmendinger could drive a wheelbarrow around Sonoma competitively, but Briscoe is no pushover. He finished runner-up to SVG last year.
Bubba Wallace vs. Michael McDowell
Pick: McDowell
Comment: Preece might have the worst opening round matchup, but Wallace is second on that list. McDowell has the clear advantage this weekend, annually hovering inside the top five.
Carson Hocevar vs. Zane Smith
Pick: Smith
Comment: Hocevar was in the mix at San Diego, putting in hours on the simulator for preparation. It was Smith who got the better finish, however, earning a season-best fourth-place effort. Smith grew up karting, racing against some of the best road racers in the world. He is my sneaky pick to get to the Round of 8.
MY LINEUP
Starting five: Shane van Gisbergen, Michael McDowell, Chase Elliott, Connor Zilisch, Chris Buescher.
Garage pick: Chase Briscoe.
36 FOR 36
Pick: Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports, No. 71 Chevrolet
Comment: Welp, saving SVG for the street course backfired epically. Hoping this isn’t the same, as McDowell has a proven resume at Sonoma, typically just off the lead. The No. 71 car has been competitive at road courses all season, placing second to van Gisbergen at Watkins Glen.