Racing Insights: How will Chase field shake out at Daytona?

One more race, one final opportunity. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale is here, with the “World Center of Racing” at Daytona International Speedway acting as the ultimate battleground for those vying for Chase glory (Sat. 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Anything goes at drafting-style tracks, and the 2.5-mile racing cathedral is certainly no exception to the rule. Such circumstances make the postseason picture all the more tantalizing. Thirteen of 16 berths are already accounted for, but with three still to be clinched, the stakes are still sky-high for those fighting around the bubble.

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The stage is set, with the additional layer of a new rules package further magnifying the excitement level tenfold. So, how does Racing Insights project the full finishing order for the 160-lap contest? Let’s give it a look.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

AUSTIN CINDRIC: Currently perched 44 points above the cutline, the No. 2 Team Penske Ford enters Daytona needing 33 markers to clinch a Chase position. Getting to that point total is easier said than done, though the 27-year-old Cindric does have winning experience at this track, thanks to his 2022 Daytona 500 victory. Cindric’s 32 stage points on drafting tracks in 2026 — which ranks fourth among drivers — additionally helps his cause. Battling at the front of the field early and often should propel Cindric to a postseason position.

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Currently holding the 16th and final postseason spot, the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing pilot needs 45 points to clinch a spot in The Chase. Van Gisbergen’s 15.5 average finish on drafting tracks in 2026 ranks ninth among all full-timers, further emphasizing the Kiwi’s improvement on non-road-course facilities this season. There is no letting up, though; with 19 points lost to the cut following New Hampshire Motor Speedway, van Gisbergen will need to give everything he has to cement that Chase position into concrete reality.

RFK RACING: Lumping in the entire three-driver stable holds plenty of merit when looking at the overall picture. Buescher has already clinched a Chase berth but is still looking for his first win this season. Daytona could be that opportunity to eliminate the goose egg as the No. 17 driver ranks second in most top-10 finishes on drafting tracks since 2025 (six) and fourth in 2026 average finish on drafting tracks (8.5). Winning the 2023 Daytona summer race also helps Buescher’s cause. Preece and Keselowski, meanwhile, rank 17th and 18th, respectively, in the cutline battle. Preece enters Saturday with a dose of momentum thanks to a sixth-place finish at New Hampshire, while Keselowski has Daytona experience on his side, with 34 career starts, one career win (2016) and a fifth-place finish in the 2026 Daytona 500 earlier this year. Both drivers can only clinch with help, so each pilot will likely have to put together their best performance of the season if they wish to contend for the championship crown.

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