Four races through The Chase presented by Mobil 1, Mother Nature has permitted just one time-trial qualifying session to set the NASCAR Cup Series starting lineup.
In the other three events, teams have had to rely on something entirely different to set the starting grid: the metric.
That term has been used a lot lately because it’s been needed so prevalently, thanks to inclement weather that washed out practice and qualifying at Darlington Raceway, Bristol Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. And while the metric is just an equation to factor recent performance into determining the starting lineup, that metric has played an obvious role in how teams begin a race that featured no previous on-track time.
Simply put, the performance metric weighs two factors: 70% of previous race finish and 30% current position in owners points. Regardless of weather, this metric is used every week to determine the qualifying order for an upcoming race. The lower the metric, the better — and the later that driver will go out in qualifying.
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There are two caveats to the metric, though. The first is seen in qualifying order itself. As stated in the NASCAR Rule Book in Section 7.3.REV A: “In each Chase Event, all vehicles and drivers that are eligible for the Championship, will be assigned the final Qualifying Order positions.” In layman’s terms, this means the 16 drivers competing in The Chase will be the final 16 drivers out for qualifying. The second caveat is that if qualifying is indeed rained out, that added benefit for The Chase racers is also washed away. Instead, those championship-eligible teams are slotted wherever the metric says they should.
As the math would indicate, that places significant added value on how a driver finishes the week prior. That particularly came into play when the lineup was determined for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington, a race that followed the chaotic finish of the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway. As a result, 37.5% of The Chase field started 20th or worse at Darlington: William Byron (20th), Ryan Blaney (24th), Kyle Larson (25th), Ty Gibbs (28th), Carson Hocevar (34th) and Chris Buescher (35th). The uphill climb toward earning critical stage points becomes a much tougher task when starting that far behind. And yet, even at a track as rough and narrow as Darlington, three of those six drivers clawed their way into the top 10 to earn Stage 1 points: Blaney (fifth), Byron (ninth) and Gibbs (10th).
A similar situation occurred at Bristol, one week after a messy race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway left many contenders with poor finishes. So when the green flag waved at Bristol, another six drivers started 20th or worse: Tyler Reddick (20th), Buescher (23rd), Chase Briscoe (26th), Chase Elliott (27th), Daniel Suárez (28th) and Blaney (29th). This time, only one of those Chasers charged toward points in Stage 1: Blaney, who finished the stage sixth.
Blaney was bitten by the metric again at Kansas thanks in part to a late-race crash at Bristol with Carson Hocevar. (Perhaps you heard about it.) The No. 12 Team Penske Ford started 25th at Kansas, and again Blaney nabbed a single stage point in 10th place when the green-checkered flag waved.
And as you might imagine, there have been some mixed emotions surrounding the metric.
“I got done saying last week, ‘Oh, the metric is what it is.’ And now I’m starting to slowly hate it like you all for what’s been happening to us,” Blaney said ahead of last week’s race at Kansas. “I thought we did a great job (at Bristol) dealing with starting in the back. I think we got to 20th after starting 29th before the (competition) yellow, and then did a good call to stay out. I thought our car was good enough to establish track position and then play around with it during that second yellow in the first stage to get some stage points, and then flip and stay out, and we were able to win the second one, so I thought we handled that really, really well.
“You never know how each week is gonna go. No matter where you qualify, you have to adjust to it and then kind of audible as the race goes on and cautions fall, but it is tough. I mean, pit-stall selection is also brutal when you don’t get to pick it or you pick towards the end, especially at these places or tracks where (calls to take) two tires are really big. Getting wedged in between a couple guys that you’re gonna be racing around all day is always tough, but I feel like we’ve done a good job at what we’ve been given.”
His teammate Joey Logano has seen both sides of the metric — starting 13th at Darlington but then starting second at Bristol and on pole at Kansas.
“I mean, it’s played a fair amount because it’s been a few races where it’s been obviously an effect,” Logano said of the metric in a Wednesday teleconference. “Obviously last week (at Kansas), we were on the right side of it; Darlington, we weren’t. So it just kind of comes out in the wash most of the time, but it still rewards performance. It rewards running well. It rewards the points and those type of things. I personally don’t have a huge issue with it. I mean, tell me a better way and maybe I’ll change my opinion, but it seems to be OK. Maybe we can tweak it some, sure, but it’s definitely played an effect some, for sure.”
Ultimately, the metric has become a topic of conversation in the NASCAR world because of an uncharacteristic stretch of unfortunate weather scenarios in three of the first four weeks of the postseason. But with such high stakes in determining the next Cup Series champion through this 10-race stretch, a system that heavily values recent on-track performance appears the most fair way to solve a circumstantial qualifying problem.
Thankfully, the days of determining qualifying order by a literal random draw are in the past, as are the times that rained-out qualifying sessions meant lining the starting grid by season-long owners points. Performance and results matter. And when Mother Nature interrupts with a washed-out time-trial session, at least the metric relies on what drivers have done lately than any random method.