NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 16 Cup Series drivers in The Chase presented by Mobil 1 after Chase Briscoe’s win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and before Sunday’s race at Charlotte Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: Cup Series Chase schedule | Cup Series standings
Analysis: Larson somehow made a second-place run feel like yet another flex. An extended green-flag stop for major adjustments dropped the No. 5 a lap down early at Las Vegas, yet he took the wave-around, steadily worked his way back through the field and was, naturally, right on Briscoe’s bumper with the race on the line by the final lap. Larson bounced off the Turn 4 wall trying to get there, took contact from Reddick and still crossed the line second. That makes five straight top-five finishes to open The Chase with an average finish of 2.2, the best five-race postseason start on record, and his championship lead is now a healthy 40 points. Charlotte produced a Stage 1 win and fifth-place finish in May, so good luck cooling him off. At this point, even Larson’s problem days are becoming everyone else’s headache.
Analysis: After all the pre-race hype, Las Vegas finally found a way to make Hamlin look mortal on a 1.5-mile track. He led from the pole early and spun by himself from fourth late in Stage 1, but rallied toward the front before encountering a fuel-pressure issue that sent him to the rear before eventually finishing 16th. It ended a remarkable run of eight consecutive top-five finishes on intermediates, but Hamlin still finished on the lead lap for the 30th consecutive race, extending his Cup record. More importantly, one messy afternoon isn’t enough to undo the larger body of work that still has him second here and second in The Chase, 40 points behind Larson. He finished third at Charlotte in May and won Stage 2, and while the hunter lost some ground in Vegas, the hunt itself remains very much alive.
Analysis: Turns out Kansas wasn’t the one that got away so much as a warning shot. One week after leading Larson late before fading to fourth, Briscoe went to Las Vegas, swept both stages, led 175 laps and finished the job with a 75-point performance. He controlled the final 40 laps, survived late charges from Bubba Wallace and Larson and emphatically backed up what the No. 19 showed at Kansas. Even Charlotte offers more encouragement than Briscoe’s spring result suggests: he ran second, third and fourth in the three stages of the Coca-Cola 600 before a late crash left him saddled 34th. The standings still say he’s 84 points behind Larson, which feels steep. The last two races suggest Briscoe might be one of the few cars capable of doing something about it, and it’s perhaps a much, much closer race than the numbers suggest.
Analysis: The 23rd-place finish is nearly useless for describing Bell’s Vegas race because it hardly tells the story. He finished second in Stage 1, third in Stage 2 and spent much of the afternoon among the handful of cars capable of challenging his teammate Briscoe before reporting a power-steering problem. An unscheduled stop under the Stage 2 caution to address it effectively ended any hope of the finish matching the performance. So yes, he slips a spot here, but not because the No. 20 suddenly lost its speed. Bell remains third in The Chase, only 55 points behind Larson, and Charlotte was similarly strong in May when he finished second despite two pit-road penalties. Eventually, these almost-days need to become something more. The car keeps giving him the opportunity, but time is running dry.
Analysis: For the first time all year, Blaney has consecutive top-five finishes — which is shocking — but it’s notable they came during this intermediate stretch, which Team Penske has really elevated its collective game for. He started 20th at Vegas, steadily marched forward, scored points in both stages and finished fifth after again showing particularly strong long-run speed. Kansas suggested Team Penske had found something; Vegas, where all three Penske cars finished in the top 10, made the argument considerably stronger. Blaney is now fifth in The Chase, 80 points behind Larson, after spending several weeks running much better than his results suggested. Charlotte brought a P7 in May despite a bad early pit stop, and now that the results sheet is finally starting to tell the same story as the race car, a clean closeout over the next five races could result in title No. 2.
Analysis: Logano’s Vegas afternoon wasn’t spectacular, but it was useful — and Team Penske will happily take that combination on an intermediate. The three-time champ started 23rd, worked his way forward, briefly surged from eighth to fourth on one restart, scored Stage 2 points and finished 10th as all three Penske cars landed inside the top 10. The No. 22 Ford still lacked the complete short-run/long-run balance Logano would ideally love to have, but the organization’s intermediate program looks considerably healthier than it did a few weeks ago. He remains fourth in The Chase, 71 points back, despite sitting sixth here. Nobody needs reminding what happens when Logano stays within striking distance long enough.
Analysis: There he is. Reddick’s third-place finish at Las Vegas, while still frustrating, was easily his most encouraging afternoon in weeks, and naturally it still required surviving an alternator concern, an unscheduled battery change and contact with Larson coming off the final corner. The No. 45 worked all the way back into the fight anyway, briefly looked capable of stealing second and finally resembled the driver who spent much of 2026 setting the pace for everybody else. Reddick himself wasn’t especially impressed — “Whoop-de-doo,” was his assessment of gaining five points — because at 106 tallies behind Larson, podium finishes aren’t really the currency he needs anymore. Vegas was progress, but Charlotte needs to be something closer to a statement.
Analysis: Two races ago, Cindric had never finished in the top five on a 1.5-mile track. He’s now done it twice in eight days. The Kansas runner-up was followed by fourth at Las Vegas, despite a 22.7-second Stage 1 pit stop after the jackman fell over the front-tire changer, forcing Cindric to drive back through the field. He did exactly that, finished second in Stage 2 and spent the closing portion of the race firmly among the contenders. It’s also the first time in his Cup career he has posted back-to-back top-five finishes … anywhere. Charlotte went very differently in May, when an early spin and subsequent contact left him 38th, but the intermediate version of Cindric showing up now looks like an entirely different driver.
Analysis: At some point, the results have to cost him something here as Gibbs continues to slip after starting the postseason looking like a possible title contender. No. 54 had speed again at Las Vegas — he started on the front row and ran second during the opening green-flag cycle — but a pit-road speeding penalty knocked the No. 54 backward, and he never completely recovered, finishing 17th for the second consecutive week. Kansas was largely circumstance; Vegas included considerably more self-inflicted damage. None of that erases a season in which NASCAR Insights has consistently rated Gibbs among the strongest passers and defenders in the field, and Charlotte produced a sixth-place finish in May. He’ll need to capitalize on that in a hurry; The Chase is halfway over now, Gibbs is 110 points behind Larson and more experienced drivers around him are converting their speed into finishes.
Analysis: Byron officially has one of the more intriguing stories to follow in The Chase. No. 24 finished sixth at Las Vegas for his fourth consecutive top 10 since the Darlington disaster, and he remains the only driver in the field to finish inside the top 10 in every 1.5-mile race this season. That’s a particularly useful distinction with another one immediately ahead and the final race of the season, when a champion will likely be decided, being one as well. The 160-point deficit means the championship comeback remains a very different conversation from the Power Rankings comeback, but there’s enough happening here that the door feels open again. It’ll be interesting to see where this team winds up in the standings.
Analysis: Wallace’s Chase has quietly become pretty respectable again, despite the minor rankings dip. Seventh at Bristol, ninth at Kansas and now eighth at Las Vegas gives the No. 23 three consecutive top 10s, with Sunday’s result coming despite an equipment-interference penalty at the first stage break. He was legitimately in the mix, too, running second late before Larson and Reddick eventually worked past him. The problem is that “pretty respectable” only goes so far when Larson is 137 points up the road and still gaining ground. Charlotte wasn’t especially kind in May, when Wallace finished 22nd, but the team’s current version looks considerably steadier. So, the floor is back, but The Chase requires Wallace to find the ceiling now if a title is in the mix.
Analysis: Elliott is at least beginning to put something together. Eighth at Kansas followed by seventh at Las Vegas gives him consecutive top 10s for the first time in this Chase, and the No. 9 scored Stage 2 points Sunday while spending much of the middle portion of the race around the front half of the top 10. It’s hardly enough to erase a 163-point deficit, but after the way the postseason began, competent Sundays count as progress. Charlotte offers a less pleasant recent memory: Elliott spun and hit the inside wall in May, finishing 37th, and it may be a slight downgrade for him that the fall race is no longer on the Roval layout. Hendrick currently has Larson controlling the championship and Byron steadily climbing these rankings; Elliott’s next task is making sure the organization’s resurgence includes him, too. 
Analysis: Another week, another result that undersells at least part of Hocevar’s race. He scored Stage 1 points at Las Vegas and was running second during the second green-flag cycle before a corded tire forced an unscheduled stop and dropped him from the fight. He eventually recovered to 12th — a considerable improvement over the Kansas wreck — but not enough to stop another small slide here. There’s a frustrating theme developing for No. 77: The speed keeps appearing, and something keeps preventing the finish from fully matching it. Charlotte was similar in May, when another tire issue interrupted his afternoon on the way to 23rd. The No. 77 remains capable of showing up near the front almost anywhere. Staying there has become the more important skill and one he’ll look to work on in 2027.
Analysis: Suárez has become weirdly, almost impressively consistent: 14th at Bristol, 14th at Kansas, 14th at Las Vegas. That’s not exactly the kind of streak that changes a championship, especially with the No. 7 now 195 points behind Larson, but it has at least stopped the bleeding after The Chase began much rougher. Now comes Charlotte, where Suárez authored one of the strangest and best evenings of his season in May. He spent 182 laps one lap down, needed two separate free passes, jumped from 14th to the lead on a two-tire call and held it through multiple weather interruptions to win the crown-jewel Coca-Cola 600. The circumstances … probably aren’t repeatable, but the reminder that this team can still produce something completely unexpected certainly is, and that’s what they’ll need.
Analysis: Better than Kansas, but the bar wasn’t especially high. Buescher spent more of Las Vegas around the edge of the top 10, scored Stage 2 points and finished 13th, a respectable enough rebound from 23rd the week before. “Respectable” is also becoming the problem, though. He’s now 196 points behind Larson with five races remaining, and the No. 17 has spent too much of the season looking capable of more than the results ultimately show. Charlotte didn’t provide much relief in May, either, when late contact and a spin helped send him to 30th.
Analysis: The hanging-around act finally took a pretty substantial hit. After three top 10s in the first four Chase races, Preece struggled throughout Las Vegas, failed to score stage points and finished 28th after reporting a possible right-front tire issue late in Stage 2. That dropped him to 200 points behind Larson and last among the 16 Chase drivers. Charlotte isn’t an obvious reset button, either; Preece finished 33rd there in May. His Chase had been considerably better than the standings suggested for several weeks, but Vegas looked much more like a reflection of the standings. With five races left, he’ll need another one of those results nobody sees coming. At least one, really.